Posted 11 January 2013 - 03:36 AM
I've watched everything I can find on this guy online. A few thoughts:
- Has a great motor. Is a big guy, but not out of shape. Conditioning won't be a problem.
- Is double-teamed on at least 75% of plays that I saw, more in some games, and still gets good push/penetration.
- Needs work as a pass rusher, but that's not what we'd be drafting him for anyway.
- When he gets blocked by just one guy he just about runs them all the way into the backfield.
- Played well against top SEC competition. In particular I noticed him lined up against Dallas Thomas quite a bit during the Tennessee/Alabama game and Williams definitely won that battle more often than not.
- Doesn't seem to wear down during the course of a game. Is remarkably consistent.
- Doesn't just occupy blockers (though he does that exceptionally well) he also splits double-teams and disrupts runs quite a bit. If he's singled-up, forget about it.
Overall, I watched about the same amount of stuff on Star Lotulelei back when it looked like we might have a shot at him and I can tell you that, IMO, there isn't nearly the gap the media and draft "experts" would have you believe. I've also watched a lot on Sheldon Richardson and some on Jonathan Hankins and Williams is far and away the #2 DT in this draft. Granted, Richardson is a completely different sort of player, so that's not a great comparison, but he absolutely destroys Hankins in terms of consistency.
If Star Lotulelei is worth the 3rd overall pick, going by that as the value scale, there's no reason Williams shouldn't be a top-10 projected pick. The good news for us is that there doesn't seem to be any obvious landing spots for him before we pick. Tennessee could stand an upgrade, but they have other needs as well, the Jets could conceivably take him, but that's a long-shot especially with Hankins still on the board.
I think the biggest threat to us in terms of someone getting Williams before us would be for a team like the Colts or Steelers to trade up to secure themselves a NT. And considering the price either team would have to pay and the fact that either Hankins or Williams are very likely to be there at the Steelers pick, the Colts seem like the most likely threat. And even then this year's DT class is pretty deep, so I doubt they'd go for that.
So it definitely looks like he'll be there for us if we want him. I can't imagine why we wouldn't given he should fill both the biggest need and BPA criteria, but it's impossible to predict with Gettleman taking over. All draft tendencies are out the window at this point.