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NY Times Panthers Article


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#1 Munch4455

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:22 PM

Heard the guys talking about this on WFNZ the other day, thought I would post it here for everyone to read. Gives insight as to why Rivera should probably be let go at the end of the year, even if we do win out.

http://fifthdown.blo...gainst-atlanta/



The Math Bowl: Carolina’s Win Against Atlanta
By TONI MONKOVIC

The Atlanta-Carolina game was a mini-mathematics bowl for some in the statistical community.
The visiting Falcons, with an 11-1 record coming in, were a 3.5-point favorite against the 3-9 Panthers. No surprise there.
But two people who contribute regularly to The Fifth Down — Brian Burke and Chase Stuart, who each probably had friends who tried to cheat off them on math tests in high school — had upbeat assessments about the Panthers before the game.
In his weekly game probabilitieson this blog, Burke, of Advanced NFL Stats, listed Carolina with a 62 percent chance to win.
In the comments section, a reader, thinking it was a mistake, wrote: “Atlanta-Carolina must be reversed.” Not so.
Another wrote: “The model must really hate the Falcons.” Not quite; Burke had the Falcons ranked seventh. The model really loves the Panthers, ranking them three spots higher.
Stuart, of FootballPerspective.com, wrote that the 2013 Panthers would be “the lowest-hanging fruit any potential coach has seen in decades,” meaning the best possible landing spot for a coach if Ron Rivera is fired (which he very well may be).
Stuart went on to write:
“Why are the Panthers 3-9? Carolina is currently 0-7 in one-score games.
“Carolina ranks 4th in Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats efficiency ratings. Now maybe they aren’t the 4th best team in the league, but Brian’s system is purely predictive and minimizes events that shape our views but are unlikely to impact future records.
“I’d argue that Carolina is probably the largest sleeping giant” of the last 20 years.
“Whoever coaches the 2013 Panthers will probably win 8 games without breaking a sweat. True, the NFC South will be tough, but the Panthers have a strong nucleus and will have some high draft picks.”
Extra point Carolina won, 30-20, but skepticism is welcome; one correct prediction is a very small sample size, and Burke will be the first to admit that he’s no oracle. But do you agree that Carolina, with the potential of Cam Newton still not fully tapped and with bad luck in close game unlikely to be repeated, has the best upside of any team in 2013?


Edit: If someone already posted this feel free to delete the thread.

#2 davos

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:31 PM

Good find

Nice to see people are realizing how good of a situation a HC could be in next year with us. If Rivera is gone, I really hope we pick a good one.

#3 Argus Plexus

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:33 PM

That was posted a little while back but yeah its a good article.

#4 Proudiddy

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:38 PM

It's what I've been saying since around week 4... We had the talent, just unbelievably incompetent coaches. The way we lost all of those close games is almost unfathomable... Unless, you have Ron Rivera and friends as coach.

It's not hate, it's the truth. From personnel packages, timeouts, to game management and strategy, they completely fell apart at the end of games. Sad that we wasted yet another year in order to find that out. I just hope JR doesn't buy into these meaningless wins and gives RR another year.

#5 Happy Panther

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:39 PM

Great article

According to them we are the second biggest favorite this week.

http://fifthdown.blo...-true-outliers/

#6 Munch4455

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:46 PM

It's what I've been saying since around week 4... We had the talent, just unbelievably incompetent coaches. The way we lost all of those close games is almost unfathomable... Unless, you have Ron Rivera and friends as coach.

It's not hate, it's the truth. From personnel packages, timeouts, to game management and strategy, they completely fell apart at the end of games. Sad that we wasted yet another year in order to find that out. I just hope JR doesn't buy into these meaningless wins and gives RR another year.


I remember asking my father when I was a kid about what coaches "do." And during our conversation he told me something I have always remembered, and I am finding to be truer and truer. He said, "You find out how good a coach is when it is clutch time at the end of a game. That is where the coach earns his money." Based on that, Rivera and Co. haven't even earned a paycheck.

#7 Proudiddy

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:53 PM

I remember asking my father when I was a kid about what coaches "do." And during our conversation he told me something I have always remembered, and I am finding to be truer and truer. He said, "You find out how good a coach is when it is clutch time at the end of a game. That is where the coach earns his money." Based on that, Rivera and Co. haven't even earned a paycheck.


Your dad was right... I don't know how much I would've bought into that until watching this year, and perhaps those games we gave up all those leads in last year. But, this year was unlike anything I'd ever seen. Some want to say it was players and their lack of execution, but players don't just fall apart after holding it together all game up to that point all on their own. So much of it is the positions they're put in by the coaches.

The first ATL game... Did Nakamura fail horribly? Yes. But, why was he in there in an obvious passing situation in the first place? Why did we come out and match them in personnel from their own 1 when it was clear that running wasn't an option (despite them coming out in a base set)? Should we have punted on 4th and 1 even though Cam has a ridiculous amount of conversions and success on 3rd and 4th and 1s?

All coaching. When I go back and look at all the games we let slip away, I also like to look at what our opponent's coaches did or didn't do to outsmart or counter our coaches and it becomes even more glaring.

#8 CPF4LIFE

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:07 PM

LMAO! "Ron Rivera and friends"

#9 Doyle

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:11 PM

Really bad luck coupled with bad coaching sums up this team well.

#10 rayzor

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:44 PM

it would be wise for the incoming GM (and maybe accorsi) to gauge interest in coaching some more prefered candidates might the team before firing rivera just to make sure we aren't stuck with lesser possibilities. i think, tho, that if this team keeps on fighting to the end that a prospective coach would love to be able to take over a team that is so close to be successful.

#11 Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:48 PM

Great article

According to them we are the second biggest favorite this week.

http://fifthdown.blo...-true-outliers/


6th I think.

#12 Happy Panther

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:50 PM

6th I think.

oops was just looking at the left hand column

#13 Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:56 PM

oops was just looking at the left hand column


You're good you're good.

#14 Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:57 PM

oops was just looking at the left hand column


You're good you're good.

#15 Doughboy88

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 03:10 PM

I went through his last 5 weeks of predictions- pretty bold, yet solid picks. I bookmarked his columns for future betting.


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