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Overlooked stat for Cam

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Posted

And there's nothing that can possibly measure which quarterback has a higher ceiling. Nobody knows this.

Yes you can if you know what you are talking about. Which is probably is why you believe you can't.

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but....but...they were both called the west coast offense.

lol

They are different, and yet both were referred to as the WCO, which is what I said.

You ever realize you laugh like an idiot and often you set the bar?

It always amuses me how some can be wrong on the major points and look for any small technicality to hang on to as some sort of validation.

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Posted

This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by ReturnOfPFFL.
no.

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Posted

Funny enough that couldn't have been a more correct answer.

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Dalton has a higher percentage because he has been more accurate. It really is as simple as that. And anyone that looks at the two offenses, would not agree that a primarily spread option offense is more difficult than a pro style WCO. .

The idea that Cam is completing at a lower percentage because he is running a harder offense is simply asinine. It's just not true. Any offense that is dominated by the college spread option with a dual rush QB in the NFL, is easier in the passing game department because of all the advantages it gives you over defenses. The WCO, which has been defended for years, is the hardest and most difficult NFL offense to master save for the Patriots WCO variation and Peyton Manning's offense which are pretty unique.

If completing passes in the NFL was simply about distance things would be a breeze. One of the most complex and difficult offenses to run is the Patriots offense, and they don't throw it deep. It requires one of the most precise quarterbacks in the NFL. Similarly the WCO is about precision. timing, route adjustment, touch, vision and receiver communication. You are throwing in traffic.

Throwing a ball over the defenses 30 yards out to a receiver who beat his man, is really not harder than throwing a pass 15 yards out through traffing, through a very tight window, timing it precisely and hitting your receiver in stride in order to put him in position to gain yards after catch.

You're right that there is a difference between a pass through the air and one on the ground that goes for yards after catch. But overall, it's not Dalton that has more yards after catch. It's us. Your argument breaks down when you claim Dalton is getting this benefit because as I stated before we were 5th in the NFL last year in yards after catch. Johnathan Stewart was our #1 receiver in yards after catch. That is our running back, which is pretty typical of your college offense. There really is nothing easier than a dump off to your RB on a screen pass which we used quite often.

And this year:

Newton- 6.85 yards after catch. per completion.

Dalton - 5.25 yards after catch per completion.

Again, the numbers don't back up your claim.

And there's nothing that can possibly measure which quarterback has a higher ceiling. Nobody knows this.

Th problem with you is that you will argue forever making obvious statements which are usually only tangentially related to the topic. For example saying that Dalton is more accurate than Newton is correct if you look at completion percentage. But that argument ignores the fact that across the board WCOs are going to produce higher completion percentages compared to our system for example if all you considered was how many shovel passes and dumpoffs that Dalton has thrown compared to how many handoffs and pitches Newton has made which aren't credited as passes because of the style of offense we run. It is likely that Dalton threw more screens and dump offs than Newton given that Cincinnati threw 66 more passes while throwing fewer deeper balls. But more on that later...

Who said that Newton was running a harder offense? They are different offenses for quarterbacks with different skills and abilities. You make these red herring arguments as if they are the point of the discussion. The issue of which type of pass is harder to make really ignores the fact that Dalton can't throw the deep out with any accuracy. Green makes him look better than he is when he snags a wounded duck out of the air and makes Dalton look like a hero. The reason that Newton is a potential franchise quarterback really rests on his ability to make all the throws and run and elude tacklers so well that he can pressure a defense with his feet and arm. Dalton in his system can be very effective and manage a game much like Jake did for us over the years. Dalton just doesn't seem to be dynamic and a game changer.

When you reported the yards after the catch per completion argument you seemed to omit the critical part which is comparing them based on the number of completions which is a difference of 66 passes. They are within 20 yards of one another in total yards after the catch which for Dalton using your numbers of 5.25 yards after the completion times 296 completons reveals a total of 1554 yards versus Newton who has 6.85 yards ATC times 230 completions or 1575 yards. I suspect the higher average for us is partly due to the routes we throw (seams versus slants for example) and the fact that we passed fewer times. Because we are more of a North South throwing team we concentrate on throwing over the defense instead of throwing under the defense like Dalton. So we could have the same number of big plays with a similar amount of total yards but our average would be higher as a function of completions because we threw the ball fewer times. It likely means we are just more explosive as a function of completions. What it wouldn't mean is that Dalton threw the ball further down the field or had more deep passes. If you figure YAC is equal and look at a more appropriate stat such as the number of 20 yard passes as a function of completions it isn't even close. Newton has completed 48 passes over 20 yards out of a total of 230 completions or 21% of all passes versus Dalton has thrown 33 out of a total of 296 or 11% of all passes. Almost a 2-1 difference. But what would you expect? Dalton plays in an East/West horizontal system with emphasizes short dink and dunk passes down the field. If you compare them on 40 yard passes as a function of completions they are essentially the same: Newton is 10 of 230 (4.4%) versus Dalton who is 13 of 296 or 4.4%.

When you look at how most of Dalton's long completions are going to Green who bails out Dalton on a regular basis, you wonder why Dalton's numbers aren't much better than they are.

The issue here is your numbers aren't germane to the argument and the facts as you describe them are only tangentially related to the real issue. Dalton is good in his system but has distinct limitations. Newton could play in any of the major systems. They are just 2 very different quarterbacks and everyone can think as they like. Just don't waste my time trying to convince me that Newton doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dalton. Anyone who has watched them knows the answer to that outside of Cincinnati or contrarians like you who troll the board looking for an argument.

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Posted

P55 you should disclose your professional background.

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Posted

They are different, and yet both were referred to as the WCO, which is what I said.

You ever realize you laugh like an idiot and often you set the bar?

It always amuses me how some can be wrong on the major points and look for any small technicality to hang on to as some sort of validation.

Once again you are close and wrong at the same time. The Air Coryell system was called the original West Coast Offense because it was run by a team located on the West Coast and if anything was a precursor of the system later called the WCO after Walsh developed his system in the 80s. But anyone who understands the history knows they aren't the same philosophically. So to insinuate they are similar because they shared a similar name in different eras is demonstrating the same technicality hunting you accuse others of doing. So why bring it up in the same post.??

What is amusing to me is that you are the "some" you refer to. What is sad is that what is apparent to all of us seems to elude you. Otherwise you wouldn't be accusing others of looking for technicalities when you are famous for posting selective facts which you take out of context to prove some tangential point without addressing the larger issues at hand.

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Posted

Dick's just not getting it.

...see what I did there?

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But feel free to keep arguing. Being wrong hasn't stopped you yet. It just spurs you on to make the same argument with some more distorted facts and suppositions to argue anew. But I will bow out for now because I don't want to keep arguing with a troll lest I be confused as one. Try fishing in another hole.

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Th problem with you is that you will argue forever making obvious statements which are usually only tangentially related to the topic. For example saying that Dalton is more accurate than Newton is correct if you look at completion percentage. But that argument ignores the fact that across the board WCOs are going to produce higher completion percentages compared to our system for example if all you considered was how many shovel passes and dumpoffs that Dalton has thrown compared to how many handoffs and pitches Newton has made which aren't credited as passes because of the style of offense we run. It is likely that Dalton threw more screens and dump offs than Newton given that Cincinnati threw 66 more passes while throwing fewer deeper balls. But more on that later...

Who said that Newton was running a harder offense? They are different offenses for quarterbacks with different skills and abilities. You make these red herring arguments as if they are the point of the discussion. The issue of which type of pass is harder to make really ignores the fact that Dalton can't throw the deep out with any accuracy. Green makes him look better than he is when he snags a wounded duck out of the air and makes Dalton look like a hero. The reason that Newton is a potential franchise quarterback really rests on his ability to make all the throws and run and elude tacklers so well that he can pressure a defense with his feet and arm. Dalton in his system can be very effective and manage a game much like Jake did for us over the years. Dalton just doesn't seem to be dynamic and a game changer.

When you reported the yards after the catch per completion argument you seemed to omit the critical part which is comparing them based on the number of completions which is a difference of 66 passes. They are within 20 yards of one another in total yards after the catch which for Dalton using your numbers of 5.25 yards after the completion times 296 completons reveals a total of 1554 yards versus Newton who has 6.85 yards ATC times 230 completions or 1575 yards. I suspect the higher average for us is partly due to the routes we throw (seams versus slants for example) and the fact that we passed fewer times. Because we are more of a North South throwing team we concentrate on throwing over the defense instead of throwing under the defense like Dalton. So we could have the same number of big plays with a similar amount of total yards but our average would be higher as a function of completions because we threw the ball fewer times. It likely means we are just more explosive as a function of completions. What it wouldn't mean is that Dalton threw the ball further down the field or had more deep passes. If you figure YAC is equal and look at a more appropriate stat such as the number of 20 yard passes as a function of completions it isn't even close. Newton has completed 48 passes over 20 yards out of a total of 230 completions or 21% of all passes versus Dalton has thrown 33 out of a total of 296 or 11% of all passes. Almost a 2-1 difference. But what would you expect? Dalton plays in an East/West horizontal system with emphasizes short dink and dunk passes down the field. If you compare them on 40 yard passes as a function of completions they are essentially the same: Newton is 10 of 230 (4.4%) versus Dalton who is 13 of 296 or 4.4%.

When you look at how most of Dalton's long completions are going to Green who bails out Dalton on a regular basis, you wonder why Dalton's numbers aren't much better than they are.

The issue here is your numbers aren't germane to the argument and the facts as you describe them are only tangentially related to the real issue. Dalton is good in his system but has distinct limitations. Newton could play in any of the major systems. They are just 2 very different quarterbacks and everyone can think as they like. Just don't waste my time trying to convince me that Newton doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dalton. Anyone who has watched them knows the answer to that outside of Cincinnati or contrarians like you who troll the board looking for an argument.

I had already pointed out most of that in posts about, what feels like, 10 pages back. It's not going to matter much.

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"But I'm PFFL! I have an advanced statistics chart I made that excels in cherry picking for my argument's sake. I write walls and walls of text that no one reads, lest they want to simultaneously bleed through their eyeballs and rectum and have an aneurism at the same time."

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The problem with you is that you will argue forever making obvious statements which are usually only tangentially related to the topic. For example saying that Dalton is more accurate than Newton is correct if you look at completion percentage. But that argument ignores the fact that across the board WCOs are going to produce higher completion percentages compared to our system for example if all you considered was how many shovel passes and dumpoffs that Dalton has thrown compared to how many handoffs and pitches Newton has made which aren't credited as passes because of the style of offense we run. It is likely that Dalton threw more screens and dump offs than Newton given that Cincinnati threw 66 more passes while throwing fewer deeper balls. But more on that later...

Who said that Newton was running a harder offense? They are different offenses for quarterbacks with different skills and abilities. You make these red herring arguments as if they are the point of the discussion. The issue of which type of pass is harder to make really ignores the fact that Dalton can't throw the deep out with any accuracy. Green makes him look better than he is when he snags a wounded duck out of the air and makes Dalton look like a hero. The reason that Newton is a potential franchise quarterback really rests on his ability to make all the throws and run and elude tacklers so well that he can pressure a defense with his feet and arm. Dalton in his system can be very effective and manage a game much like Jake did for us over the years. Dalton just doesn't seem to be dynamic and a game changer.

When you reported the yards after the catch per completion argument you seemed to omit the critical part which is comparing them based on the number of completions which is a difference of 66 passes. They are within 20 yards of one another in total yards after the catch which for Dalton using your numbers of 5.25 yards after the completion times 296 completons reveals a total of 1554 yards versus Newton who has 6.85 yards ATC times 230 completions or 1575 yards. I suspect the higher average for us is partly due to the routes we throw (seams versus slants for example) and the fact that we passed fewer times. Because we are more of a North South throwing team we concentrate on throwing over the defense instead of throwing under the defense like Dalton. So we could have the same number of big plays with a similar amount of total yards but our average would be higher as a function of completions because we threw the ball fewer times. It likely means we are just more explosive as a function of completions. What it wouldn't mean is that Dalton threw the ball further down the field or had more deep passes. If you figure YAC is equal and look at a more appropriate stat such as the number of 20 yard passes as a function of completions it isn't even close. Newton has completed 48 passes over 20 yards out of a total of 230 completions or 21% of all passes versus Dalton has thrown 33 out of a total of 296 or 11% of all passes. Almost a 2-1 difference. But what would you expect? Dalton plays in an East/West horizontal system with emphasizes short dink and dunk passes down the field. If you compare them on 40 yard passes as a function of completions they are essentially the same: Newton is 10 of 230 (4.4%) versus Dalton who is 13 of 296 or 4.4%.

When you look at how most of Dalton's long completions are going to Green who bails out Dalton on a regular basis, you wonder why Dalton's numbers aren't much better than they are.

The issue here is your numbers aren't germane to the argument and the facts as you describe them are only tangentially related to the real issue. Dalton is good in his system but has distinct limitations. Newton could play in any of the major systems. They are just 2 very different quarterbacks and everyone can think as they like. Just don't waste my time trying to convince me that Newton doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dalton. Anyone who has watched them knows the answer to that outside of Cincinnati or contrarians like you who troll the board looking for an argument.

1. Once again, the idea that overall the WCO is going to produce a higher completion % compared to our system, the spread option, is just not true and is based on nothing but opinionated drivel, not backed up by any evidence. You accuse me of being tangibly relevant(which I didn't even bring up) or obvious, and yet you say this. This is just flat out pulled out of Teeray's ass.

Compared to a QB who's mainly running a John Fox-like, power running offense, yes, the WCO might do that. Not compared to the spread option. Every dual rush QB that came out of college, and is running the spread option in the NFL, other than The Golden Calf of Bristol, has tore it up in the completion % department. Even though we go deep, we usually get our guys wiiiide open when the defense is trying to stack the box and defend our running game. This is proven already.

The idea that we are running the actual Air Coryell is also just not true either so the WCO vs Air Coryell discussion was moot form the get go anyway. We are running the spread option 80% of the time, mostly out of pistol, with a highly concentrated dose of zone read pass/run plays, with very little of what Chud's Air Coryell looked like in San Diego or the original Air Coryell with Dan Foust. Our offense resemble's Auburn offense a lot more than it does the Air Coryell. Go see how many times Dan Foust lined up in the pistol or even shotgun in his career.

Once again, I didn't bring this into the conversation, it was others who have to come up with some explanation of why Dalton would have a higher completion %. All I did is defend the fact Dalton can in fact throw the deep ball. In reality this is just an unnecessary discussion, a completely subjective and opinionated debate when the truth is the QB has the biggest effect on his completion % and opposing defenses. And for the record, Dalton's dealing with both the Steelers and Ravens twice a year, every year. Really the only QBs that are significantly being affected by the low% deep ball right now, is Andrew Luck and Eli Manning.

2. I already listed those total numbers you just did 2 pages back. That's where the discussion actually started, so you are late on that one. I agree, they are almost a wash. The point is, one again, we average more yards after catch per completion. And you are using total passing yards. The only way to figure out who threw more passes through the air downfield is to find those exact stats broken down by AIR passing yards. Drawing conclusion based on completions that include yards after catch is inconclusive. That's why I didn't care to argue Andy's 12 40+ yards completions and Cam's 10 or Cam's 47 20+ yards completions vs Andy's 32. We don't know how they broke down. But I already pointed out, there are numbers out there for 2011. Dalton was one of only 6 quarterbacks along with other deep ball throwers like Eli and Romo to have at least 15 passes over 30 yards and had the 4th best completion percentage in 2011. Newton attempted more deep balls and completed less. This is a fact.

You and the others keep claiming Dalton is getting advantage in something Cam is too. Once again. Last year, our running back, Stewart, was our #1 "receiver" in yards after catch. He had 508 yards after catch more than even Smith at 474. We were one of overall in yards after catch. Cam had 1975 yards after catch. Dalton's receivers got him 4.8 yac per completion/2.8 per attempt and our guys got Cam 6.1 yac per completion/3.8 per attempt. 48% of Cams passing yards were yards after catch. 42% of Dalton's yards, were yards after catch. This is also a fact. Anyway you look at it, Cam benefited more. So if you want to go there, then who exactly is getting the bigger benefit of padded stats here? Cam was dumping the ball off a lot to his running backs and tight ends last year and still does it this year.

Finally the premise that Dalton couldn't play in another system but Newton could is just a personal opinion not backed by any sort of substantial evidence. This is the same as "ceiling" or "potential" talk and it's silly to box him in and try to limit him to what Jake Delhomme did. He will never be the runner Cam is, that part is obvious. But there's no reason why he can't be a better passer, more clutch, more methodical. Nobody knows this. There's no limit on this.

Also, Dalton ran a similar system Cam ran in college and now Dalton's playing in a different system. Cam's actually still running a lot of the same plays he ran in college, even this year. In fact Andy ran similar plays that Cam Did in college which were all copied from Urban Myer and The Golden Calf of Bristol anyway. He even ran the inverted deer in college, which Cam used it twice this year against the Saints.

http://smartfootball.../tag/gun-option

So far Dalton's showed he can succeed in two different systems. Spread Option and WCO.

The fact is nobody sits there and breaks down offenses when Comparing QB's stats like completion %, touchdowns, passer rating, yards etc. It's a subjective argument that never gets you anywhere.

The numbers are what they are. Andy's been a better passing QB this year. Not saying he's more productive overall(Cam's TQB is 54 and Andy's is 53), but as a passer, he's been better this year. He's completed at a higher percentage, thrown the ball more, has more passing touchdowns, and not to mention 6 4th quarter comebacks in his career compared to only 2 for Cam. He took his team to the playoffs last year, as a rookie with a rookie #1 wide receiver, in a division dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ravens defenses, and is in a position to do it again this year. And it has little to do with him being in a more favorable offense, because right now, running the spread option in the NFL is veeeery favorable for anyone with a dual rush QB. He's just been a better passer so far this year. That's all.

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