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Cam Is My 11th Ranked QB of 2012 w/ QBA of 58.42. Peyton is 1st with 66.68 QBA

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Posted

I just have this vision in my head of a Trent Dilfer led Ravens team when their defense was in it's prime. Remember when they went for a string of like 6 or 8 games without scoring a TD and yet they were still winning? With a defense like SF has or maybe Seattle, it just seems they could still win a good percentage of games even when their QB did not play well.

But facts are facts, and obviously the numbers don't lie. It makes it easier to understand why teams will mortgage their future (like the Skins did in the offseason) on the chance they get a true franchise QB.

Anyway, nice work and I look forward to following your metric as we go forward.

The flip side of a streak like that with Dilfer is that you often see QBs that are carried by their defenses running into bad quarterbacks that still lose the QBA comparison simply because of the terrific defense a player like Dilfer had carrying him. It's not just whether Quarterback A has a high QBA score on his own, but whether he ends up with a higher QBA than Quarterback B, which if he avoids turnovers and is decently efficient with a limited number of plays isn't too hard to accomplish. It's when a low QBA player with a good defense runs into the buzzsaw of a high QBA player like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers that the contrast really comes into play.

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Posted

***'s not just whether Quarterback A has a high QBA score on his own, but whether he ends up with a higher QBA than Quarterback B, which if he avoids turnovers and is decently efficient with a limited number of plays isn't too hard to accomplish.

Maybe I should rephrase my question. QB 1 is going into an upcoming game against QB 2. QB 1 has a higher rating YTD (let's say by 5 points in your system). Do you expect QB 1 to win say 80% of the time?

My question isn't so much whether the higher rated QB performance in a given game won that game, it's whether it is a good predictor of future contests. And that question came to mind following your comment about Peyton being the favorite in the post season based on his QBA.

Has the QB position become so important that the best QB consistently carries his teams to wins? Even over teams with a killer defense and perhaps a middle of the road QB as defined by your metric?

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Posted

Interestingly PFF also have cam graded 11th at this moment in time (they don't have the final game graded yet).

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Posted

Maybe I should rephrase my question. QB 1 is going into an upcoming game against QB 2. QB 1 has a higher rating YTD (let's say by 5 points in your system). Do you expect QB 1 to win say 80% of the time?

My question isn't so much whether the higher rated QB performance in a given game won that game, it's whether it is a good predictor of future contests. And that question came to mind following your comment about Peyton being the favorite in the post season based on his QBA.

Has the QB position become so important that the best QB consistently carries his teams to wins? Even over teams with a killer defense and perhaps a middle of the road QB as defined by your metric?

Good question, I'll have to look into that.

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Posted

Good stuff, final rankings make sense to me.

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Posted

Amusing to see Kaepernick and Smith 5th and 6th, lol.

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Posted

http://50.116.44.142...&type=all&min=3

Also of note is that today's game is Cam's first ever upset win, where his QBA was lower than his opponent but he still won. He has been on the flip side of that five times in his career, so it was great seeing the team finally pull one out without him needing a big game.

Finally, starting from the last Tampa Bay game on Cam averaged a QBA of 65.45, compared to 52.95 up to that point. In other words, he went from playing like Jake Locker to playing like Peyton Manning.

http://50.116.44.142...-12-30&type=all

You guys honestly have a piece of talent on your hand. Even those who picking him apart have to marvel at the exceptional talent this young man has. His stats may not always reflect the little ways in which he helps his teammates shine but the end W is all that matters to him.

I was honestly quite surprised that the score was so high but Cam wasn't credited for any of the TDs but Brees got credit for all on his team.

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Posted

why were you surprised by that? very different offenses at work yesterday.

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Posted

You guys honestly have a piece of talent on your hand. Even those who picking him apart have to marvel at the exceptional talent this young man has. His stats may not always reflect the little ways in which he helps his teammates shine but the end W is all that matters to him.

I was honestly quite surprised that the score was so high but Cam wasn't credited for any of the TDs but Brees got credit for all on his team.

The TD % is only a tenth of the final score, so that wasn't the difference, and frankly Cam didn't have the kind of game Brees did, but that's perfectly fine, because for once the team pulled together to win it rather than forcing Cam to do everything. That's an excellent sign, because we need a collective effort around Cam, not just Cam doing it all.

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Posted

why were you surprised by that? very different offenses at work yesterday.

I guess because I didn't actually watch the game, I can't, so i didn't see how the game was played.

I only went on the tds and the end results stats that were being shown on NFL score-board.

I'm going to assume that there was more of a running game with the Panthers then the Saints?

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Posted

I guess because I didn't actually watch the game, I can't, so i didn't see how the game was played.

I only went on the tds and the end results stats that were being shown on NFL score-board.

I'm going to assume that there was more of a running game with the Panthers then the Saints?

Mike Tolbert had 3 TDs, and DeAngelo Williams had over 200 yards and 2 TDs, so I'm going to go with. . .yes.

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Posted

The TD % is only a tenth of the final score, so that wasn't the difference, and frankly Cam didn't have the kind of game Brees did, but that's perfectly fine, because for once the team pulled together to win it rather than forcing Cam to do everything. That's an excellent sign, because we need a collective effort around Cam, not just Cam doing it all.

You've made the point that I've been trying to make all season with this team and Cam. No matter how good your QB is, the team has to do their part to get that win. That was also brought home in the game between the Skins and Dallas last night. RG really wasn't at his best but the team carried him to a victory over the Cowboys.

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