Maybe I should rephrase my question. QB 1 is going into an upcoming game against QB 2. QB 1 has a higher rating YTD (let's say by 5 points in your system). Do you expect QB 1 to win say 80% of the time?
My question isn't so much whether the higher rated QB performance in a given game won that game, it's whether it is a good predictor of future contests. And that question came to mind following your comment about Peyton being the favorite in the post season based on his QBA.
Has the QB position become so important that the best QB consistently carries his teams to wins? Even over teams with a killer defense and perhaps a middle of the road QB as defined by your metric?
Good question, I'll have to look into that.