114 replies to this topic

[panthers55]

I like option three, where you win right away and keep on winning. Option two only seems to work for guys who luck into a franchise QB late in the draft.

If you look at the best franchises out there right now, the ones that win and win big year in and year out, you'll see that most of them started winning under a regime right away and continued to do so.

Pittsburgh started winning again consistently under Cowher, and in his first season.
Green Bay started winning again under Holmgren
Ravens under Billick
Eagles under Reid, starting in his second season
Colts under Dungy won immediately (having Manning as a soph didn't hurt)
Saints started winning immediately under Payton
Falcons started winning immediately under Smith.
Then there's New England, which started winning in Belichick's second season, and it was his second stop.

I guess I'm saying that a good coach will change the culture all by himself, he doesn't need a GM to build it through several years of roster tweaking.

Who are you looking at in modern-era football that took years to build a consistent winner?

The majority of those teams either had a great franchise quarterback or a great defense. Pittsburgh has always had a great defense which wins games. The same thing with the Ravens.

Green Bay had Favre and then Rodgers. Colts had Manning as you mentioned. Saints had Drew Brees and the falcons had Matt Ryan. Of course New England has Brady.

Who has had a great coaching history without a franchise quarterback or a great defense? I can't think of any. The quarterback was the most important factor that changed the culture by winning.

[panthers55]

I beg to differ:

1) Last year, we were in shotgun just over 60% of the time. This year, at least for the first 7 games, we were in shotgun closer to 85%.
2) Last year, we used 2 TE sets frequently. Early this year, we almost never used 2 TE
3) As stated by others, we relied much more heavily on read option plays early this year. Yes, we used it last year after mid-season, by not nearly as much as this year.

The first Tampa game was a perfect example of what was wrong with our offense. We were in 1/1 formations nearly the whole game, and the 1 TE was typically sent out on a pass pattern along with the 3 wide receivers. Tampa applied consistent pressure, and we didn't have enough blockers to counter. The result? We couldn't run the ball (and frankly didn't even try), and Newton was under pressure the whole game.

That type approach continued almost unabated until Hurney got fired. Then out of the blue, Chud decides maybe he should start to change things up a bit. Funny how that worked. That's why I don't know if I'll ever trust Chud completely.

Are these your numbers or did you get them from a stat site?

And you are right instead of 2 tight ends with one blocking, we went to a fullback in Tolbert. But on passing downs we still used 2 TEs.

Again any specifics on the read option other than your subjective opinion? You might be right but without some kind of proof, it is just speculation.

[Marguide]

Are these your numbers or did you get them from a stat site?

And you are right instead of 2 tight ends with one blocking, we went to a fullback in Tolbert. But on passing downs we still used 2 TEs.

Again any specifics on the read option other than your subjective opinion? You might be right but without some kind of proof, it is just speculation.

I charted maybe the first 6 or 7 games this year and compared them to similar matchups last year. I started several threads here in which I presented the data. So no, I'm not just talking out of my ass.

The last one I remember off the top of my head was following the Denver game. In that one, I showed that our one scoring drive in the first half featured a heavy use of under center I formation plays. It was our 2nd possession if I remember correctly. The rest of the half, we went back to almost exclusively shotgun plays with a heavy reliance on the read option. Chud did then make some adjustments after the half, but by that time it was too late as Denver was up big and killing us with the pass rush.

I just found some of my data...

This is from the 1st Atlanta game this year:
48 plays from the gun
13 plays under center
21 read option runs
8 I formation plays

These are from the Minnesota game last year:
39 shotgun plays
23 under center plays
11 I formation runs
3 read option runs

See the difference?

[FastNFurious]

I'm not gonna make a Mr. Scot's length post. I'm sorry if you expected that.

I just wanna know why this board seems to blame Rivera only, even though we have a serious lack in talent and experience. Why is it so impossible for you guys to put the blame on the players and assistant coaches as well?

Are we blaming players for their lack of talent or the management for signing them??

[Argus Plexus]

I don't know, maybe because he's the head coach so he's basically in charge of everything and thus responsible for the failures of the team whether directly or indirectly.

[BigSyke]

because colts and redskins have similar teams and already in the playoffs.

[Cyberjag]

The majority of those teams either had a great franchise quarterback or a great defense. Pittsburgh has always had a great defense which wins games. The same thing with the Ravens.

Green Bay had Favre and then Rodgers. Colts had Manning as you mentioned. Saints had Drew Brees and the falcons had Matt Ryan. Of course New England has Brady.

Who has had a great coaching history without a franchise quarterback or a great defense? I can't think of any. The quarterback was the most important factor that changed the culture by winning.

I totally agree, and think Newton is a franchise quarterback. The fact that he led a top five offense as a rookie and had the most productive two first seasons in history supports that notion.

In three of the four seasons before Cowher got there, the Steelers finished in the bottom half of the league defensively. The Ravens were in the bottom half of the league all three years of their existence before Billick arrived (and he was an offensive guy--go figure).

With that said, both the Steelers and the Ravens had great defensive players--Ray Lewis and Ron Woodson. So you need either a franchise QB or a truly great defensive leader maybe. And you need a coach who can create the proper culture right away.

Still wondering what team took the other route, where they built the culture over the course of several seasons, with roster tweaks. Seems more like the Fox/Hurney approach to me, and I thought we had all tired of that.

[Bob NC]

One thing I find interesting is how Panthers fans have been brainwashed to believe it takes years to have change.

If I operated an NFL team that for the past decade has not been able to string 2 winning seasons together, I'd try to do the same thing. "One more year and we should be all set." "We have a new coach so it might take 2 years to make a difference."

Can you picture John Elway at a presser saying, "Okay, we brought in Foxy and now we have Peyton, so in 2 or 3 years we hope to trend upward."?

I'm sure Seattle brought in Carroll so they would see improvement in a few years.

Harbaugh in San Fran I'm sure was brought in so they could see 'improvement' in a few years.

It's not whether or not Rivera is "trending upward", it's how long can this franchise say, (and expect), the same thing year after year after year.

You all can count meaningless games as much as you want. As far as I'm concerned, the season is over after the meaningful games are over. Didn't Fox have the best winning percentage EVER in meaningless games? When the games are meaningless the quality of play is too. I'm a good Hold Em player, in my poker history, I'm ahead. I'm also the most dangerous short stack around. When my stack is short I play differently than I usually do, I go all in on draws, I'll bluff the pants off you. As a mostly conservative winning player, the chances I take as a short stack don't represent my style of play. It's incredible how many times I've come back from a short stack to place, show, or even win, but it's not a strategy you want to follow in the long term.

Who knows, maybe JR paying a name like Seifert so much hurt him more than anybody knows. He's name shy and prefers to go on the cheap now.

I don't know why, but in my imagination if I were to picture Bowen, Elway and Fox sitting around a table I picture them talking about schemes, and defensive theories and such. When I picture JR and Hurney and Rivera sitting around a table I imagine them talking about what hotel they are staying at on the road trip, or what new promos they can come up with in the stadium. I may be full of shyt, but that's what I see.

Give Rivera 3 years, when that doesn't work out, let's give someone else 4. From my seat it doesn't look any different. It's a mindset for this team.

We all believe 2 winning seasons is only a couple years away. Problem is, it always will be.

[Mr. Scot]

Sometimes it does take time, especially if you want it done right.

I'm equally flabbergasted by the "lottery mentality" a lot of fans have, thinking that if we just get one "right guy" then we'll be set for life.

It's rarely that simple.

Teams like the Patriots and Steelers thrive perennially because they have a total system (college scouting, free agency, coaching, assistants, etc) that's been built over time and all runs so smoothly that when you lose one component you just plug in the next guy you had prepared.

We're hiring a guy to build this team into that kind of system, and it doesn't happen overnight.

[Cyberjag]

The Steelers of the 80s looked exactly like the Panthers of the 00s, and Cowher took over and they started winning regularly and immediately.

The Patriots were winners before Belichick got there, it's arguable that they started winning under Parcells, and he also started winning in his second year there.

There just aren't any good examples of people who did it with this "build a winner over time" mentality. Good coaches just about always start winning right out of the gate. Coaches who put together multiple winning seasons in a row just about always do. I've looked, and I can't find an example in modern era football where a coach built a streak of those multiple winning seasons and wasn't winning by year two.

Maybe you can help me out there? I can give you a bunch of coaches who won right away for every one you mention.

[Bob NC]

We're hiring a guy to build this team into that kind of system, and it doesn't happen overnight.

We've been waiting about 3,700 night now, it sure doesn't happen overnight.

[panthers55]

I don't think that anyone thinks that if we keep Rivera it is fine to win in 2 or 3 years. I think most everyone would think that next year is a put up or shut up season. So you could reason that this was year 3 and we are fine with that. But you would be wrong. Who isn't disappointed with this season? Who expected to win?? I did.....

The difference is that I think that next year we will be in the playoffs. I think we were a half dozen plays from being there this year. And honestly I can name at least 3 or 4 plays where the coaches made the exact right call and the players failed to execute. Did the coaches also screw up at times and make mistakes?? Yes.... Frankly I think that we are a playoff caliber team that didn't know how to close or win close games. I don't think that will be repeated.

So I am fine with Rivera for another year and expect us to make the playoffs in 2013. That is the issue. The past 2 years are history at this point. For me the question is whether Rivera can build a winner with the current talent and make the playoffs. I think he can and others think he can't. I am okay with that...............

[panthers55]

I charted maybe the first 6 or 7 games this year and compared them to similar matchups last year. I started several threads here in which I presented the data. So no, I'm not just talking out of my ass.

The last one I remember off the top of my head was following the Denver game. In that one, I showed that our one scoring drive in the first half featured a heavy use of under center I formation plays. It was our 2nd possession if I remember correctly. The rest of the half, we went back to almost exclusively shotgun plays with a heavy reliance on the read option. Chud did then make some adjustments after the half, but by that time it was too late as Denver was up big and killing us with the pass rush.

I just found some of my data...

This is from the 1st Atlanta game this year:
48 plays from the gun
13 plays under center
21 read option runs
8 I formation plays

These are from the Minnesota game last year:
39 shotgun plays
23 under center plays
11 I formation runs
3 read option runs

See the difference?

Good work. Since we were installing the offense until week 10 last year, how did the use of the read option change from lets say weeks 12-16 versus the start of this year. Seems we ran a lot more read option after the bye. I don't know maybe I just made it up.....

[Cyberjag]

So I am fine with Rivera for another year and expect us to make the playoffs in 2013. That is the issue. The past 2 years are history at this point. For me the question is whether Rivera can build a winner with the current talent and make the playoffs. I think he can and others think he can't. I am okay with that...............

You know I completely respect your opinion. I'm not going to be too terribly upset if we keep him, but I think that history paints a bleak picture for our chances of sustained success if we do. Maybe the year one argument is valid, and we should treat 2013 as Rivera's year two. I just want to win, and I also worry that if Rivera gets us to 9-7 or 10-6 next year we may be back on the same old win/lose/win/lose pattern--truly great coaches just win all the time, they don't need years to get there.

One more thing I'm really interested in is what it will say regarding personnel control if Rivera is retained by Richardson.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

2 winning seasons is only a couple years away.

Belief of the typical Panthers fan in a nutshell.

JR: "Tell me about it! That is all I heard from Hurney for over a decade."