Posted 03 January 2013 - 08:47 AM
I don't think I said that regarding the 2011 season. I think I said I understood your perspective on that. But I'm not flopping to make a point, he still played in the same set of circumstances as 31 other coaches, including some rookie coaches who outperformed him.
And I also disagree with your assessment on the lessons history teaches us where NFL coaches are concerned. I'm looking at NFL franchises after 92 only, which is why I keep repeating "modern era" football, because that's where you get the best comparison. And I'm not saying that "this coach is unsuccessful, so Rivera will be too". Rather, I'm saying, "ALL these coaches who fit the same profile as Rivera were unsuccessful, so Rivera is likely to be as well". With all respect, you're the one who is focusing on single success stories to support your point, not me. You could boil it down to my position being one where it isn't likely, and yours being one where history says that it could happen. And those are not incompatible statements at all.
You raise a fair point with Davis; there are no hard and fast rules that apply here. That's why we look at the odds, and can't make predictions with absolute certainty. The odds in this case are clearly against Rivera, and they absolutely apply. For what it's worth, I did compare the coaches who took three years to win with those who won in their first and second year, and found that they were still less likely to succeed than their counterparts who won early. Granted, I only looked at 60 head coaches (the current list and their immediate predecessors), but it was pretty convincing. 28 won in their first season, 14 in their second, and the remainder either hadn't gotten to a third, didn't win at all, or won in their third year.
If Rivera gets the chance to come back, I'll be pulling for his success every bit as much as you will be. And if he manages to finally have some sort of winning record, even if it's 2-1, I'll be pretty stoked at his chances of having a winning record (and I share your conviction that we'll get there next year, I'm thinking of 2014 and beyond as well).
I still think, right now, that our best chance to win consistently going forward lies with another coach, so I hope you can understand why I am not keen on the idea of waiting another couple of years to find out if Rivera can build a long term winner.
Because no matter how much you say they don't apply and everything here is different, in the NFL winning coaches have an absurdly strong tendency to win very early, and although he has the talent and can get close, Rivera just hasn't done that.