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Dear media, please stop telling me Andrew Luck is good


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#201 Marguide

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:19 PM

After 14 pages there is not much else to add to this. All I'll say is after watching the games this weekend, yeah, that Aaron Rodgers is pretty damn good. Not one of the other QB's that played this weekend compare favorably to ours, and that should make all Panther fans feel really good.

#202 teeray

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:21 PM

many things came together for the Colts and while thats true, 7 come from behind wins is nothing to minimize. thats all im saying on that. come from behind wins are rare and are a pretty good indicator of what a qb can do. again, its no lock for how Luck does in the future.


Considering The Golden Calf of Bristol and Mark Sanchez have both been among the leaders in that category I just can't agree that it is an indicator of what a QB can do.

Outside of total passing yardage I can't think of one stat that suggests Luck was good this year. Again I feel like I have to say, I don't think he is terrible. He just isn't good.

And I also said at the very beginning that he could become good someday, but right now he is not.

A good QB does not have 5 game stretches of sub-50% passing in each of those games.

#203 pstall

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:30 PM

then i will volley right back to you. if you can credit Indy's d with TIMELY plays, can you do the same for a qb? so a guy throws for under 50%? but how did he do in the 4th? in the red zone or when the game was on the line? was he awful in the first half but did significantly better in the 2nd?

my one off the beaten path stat for qb's when it comes to ratings etc is keeping drives alive with 3rd down conversions to keep his d off the field and resting.
because as someone said in another thread about dinks and dunks is why RG had such a high passer rating, you can parse the stats to look at down field throws. what % of those were completed? when?

our only sample size on Luck is this season which for him just ended today. none of us know the future.

which brings me back to what i only want to see more of around here. wins. i don't care how or who against or where. just friggin win more games.

#204 fieryprophet

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:32 PM

Alright, here's the end of discussion, ironclad facts:

In my QBA metric, the league average is 54 on a scale of 0-100. That's where you find the Jake Lockers and Christian Ponders of the league.

In Luck's rookie season, he has averaged a QBA of 50.97, or BELOW AVERAGE. In Cam's rookie season, he averaged a 57.91. Here's the kicker, though.

In Luck's wins this season he averaged a QBA of. . .55.16, or barely above average. In Cam's wins his rookie year, he averaged 70.66, which is equivalent to Aaron Rodgers 2011 season QBA!

In other words, for Luck won 5 games this year where his opponent outplayed him, and barely rated above a league average QB in those wins, while Cam had to play like Aaron Rodgers just to earn the wins he had last year!

See for yourselves:

http://50.116.44.142/qba/player/A.Luck

http://50.116.44.142...-01-29&type=all

And Luck compared to RG3 or Russell Wilson? It's not even remotely close, as RG3 finished the year with a 62.76 and Wilson at 60.1, both top 10 scores. while Luck finished ranked 30th.

http://50.116.44.142...&type=all&min=3

And my metric has outperformed passer rating by 43 games in the last three years, so I have no qualms using it as statistical proof of what is obvious to anyone with eyeballs: LUCK WAS NOT VERY GOOD THIS YEAR.

#205 TheRed

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:35 PM

my first post was about homerism trumping wins. that was the TEAM part.

then after a run on Cam vs the other i mention that the comparisons vs other qb's are going to happen and if you do, somebody wll go yeah but they have a good d or running game or they played a weak sked and i said stop with the excuses.
at some point winning has to go above commercials, swag and being mentioned on First Take. this part was towards some fans being so caught up in that over winning. which i can only gather by what they post or what they start a thread on.

at no point have i said, trade Cam or i wish we had luck. it was all you other guys that brought that into the mix and im like what are you guys doing?

and im not beaing around the bush. I like Cam and im glad we have him. i simply want us to win more games. how is that so elusive for some of you?


Every fanbase has some homers. What can you expect from ours after so many losing seasons?

Honestly in terms of the Colts, I think Luck will be a decent QB. People look at their immediate success and say why can't the Panthers do this like the Colts have sucked for years. Oh how people soon forget the Colts the years before 2011 missed the playoffs exactly how many times with Peyton Manning?

Now we take a look at our franchise, mediocrity for years is the only common trend. Simply inserting a quarterback wasn't going to solve all of our problems and send us to the postseason. I'm really hoping retaining Rivera was the right choice and he can stop being an inept head coach at times. I'm not holding my breath though.

#206 mcdougal

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:36 PM

In order to follow this logic I would have to concede that winning games, 4th quarter comebacks, and game winning drives are all a direct parallel to the QB position.

But for sh1ts and giggles lets look at some of the games the Colts won and compare those to our Panthers and you can tell me what you think.

Minnesota: Indy won on a 53 yard field goal

Cleveland: Indy hold a 4 point lead going into the 4th quarter. Defense does not give up a single point in 4th and Indy wins by 4 points

Tennessee: Indy ties the game with 3:24 left in regulation. Colt's defense holds tie and Colts win in OT

Miami: Colts take a 3 point lead with 5:58 left in the game. Defense preserves the lead

Buffalo: Colts take a 7 point lead with 11:30 to go in the 4th quarter. Defense preserves that lead

Tennessee: Colts takes a 1 point lead with 6:23 left in the 4th quarter. Defense preserves that lead and Colts win by 4

Kansas City: Colts take 7 point lead with 4:08 to go in the 4th quarter. Defense preserves lead.



Okay. That is 7 of the 11 games that they won. Now ask yourself these questions. How many times has the Panthers defense preserved a one score lead in the 4th quarter with 3:00+ remaining? Do we have a kicker that you feel comfortable with trying a 50+ yard field goal for a win? How many more wins would Cam have if we did these things? How many more 4th quarter comebacks would Cam have if we did those things?

Our defense may have been better overall, but Indy's defense was timely. If the Colts had defensive breakdowns late in games like we did against CHI, Tampa, Dallas, KC, etc. that could be the difference between the Colts being 11-5 and Luck having a bunch of GWDs and 4QCs and the Colts being 4-12. And it was the difference in us going 7-9 instead of possibly 11-5 and Cam not having more GWDs and 4QCs.

You talk about people looking at stats, but that is all you have done. You have just relied on GWD and 4th quarter comebacks, coupled those with wins and say that winning as a QB is all that matters.

4th quarter comebacks and GWDs are really great. But there is another side that can help pad those particular stats. The Colts defense did it and we had breakdowns. Simple as that.


lol this guy is on fire tonight. Cam would be every bit the "winner" Luck is if his Kicker could make FGs (last year) or if his defense could stop giving up points with 59 seconds to go on the 1/2 yard line with no Timeouts (ATL). The only real come back Luck had was the GB game...And that had more to do with Reggie than Luck.

#207 panthersphan

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:54 PM

#7 passer in the league on a (worst to) playoff team?

Get over it the kids pretty good

Not a luck "fan" by any means though

#208 NanuqoftheNorth

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:22 AM

RGIII, Wilson, Luck and Cam. We could be witnessing the dawning of a new golden age for QBs in the NFL. Should make for some great playoff match ups in the years to come. Wouldn't trade Cam for any of these guys, but as a fan of the NFL, objectively speaking, all these QBs are great additions to their teams.

#209 fieryprophet

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:25 AM

RGIII, Wilson, Luck and Cam. We could be witnessing the dawning of a new golden age for QBs in the NFL. Should make for some great playoff match ups in the years to come. Wouldn't trade Cam for any of these guys, but as a fan of the NFL, objectively speaking, all these QBs are great additions to their teams.


This is very true, we should all be thankful that for once we have a next generation QB.

#210 teeray

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:35 AM

then i will volley right back to you. if you can credit Indy's d with TIMELY plays, can you do the same for a qb? so a guy throws for under 50%? but how did he do in the 4th? in the red zone or when the game was on the line? was he awful in the first half but did significantly better in the 2nd?

my one off the beaten path stat for qb's when it comes to ratings etc is keeping drives alive with 3rd down conversions to keep his d off the field and resting.
because as someone said in another thread about dinks and dunks is why RG had such a high passer rating, you can parse the stats to look at down field throws. what % of those were completed? when?

our only sample size on Luck is this season which for him just ended today. none of us know the future.

which brings me back to what i only want to see more of around here. wins. i don't care how or who against or where. just friggin win more games.


I agree that we all want more wins.

My point in my post however, isn't to just credit the Colts defense those wins.

I was to illustrate the fine line between what some would consider "clutch" and "choking" and winning and losing when drawing a direct a parallel to winning, 4QC, and GWD solely to a QB. And that has been the crux of the argument from people who disagree that Luck isn't a very good QB yet. They point to wins and 4QC and GWD. But when you look at the play of the Colt's defense in certain situations, they provided the support for those things to happen, whereas a guy like Cam Newton who has a losing record and much fewer 4QC and GWD, well he hasn't had the same type of support. If the Colts had the same late defensive breakdowns that the Panthers had and the Colts were 4-12 instead of 11-5 the narrative of "clutch" for Luck would be non-existent just as it is for Cam Newton right now.

My point in comparing Newton and Luck isn't to say who is better. It is to illustrate the fine line between the "clutch" and "choke" in late game situations and how it can have less to do with the QB play than situational plays by the entire team.

And when you add in the fact that Sanchez, Vince Young, and The Golden Calf of Bristol have a good win % and several 4QC and GWDs, I don't think that those are sufficient barometers to determine how good or bad a QB is.

And because of that, I feel you have to look at the overall picture. And when I watch Luck play and also look at his stats overall, he isn't very good. Not only that, but he wasn't very good against very poor competition.

Look at the list I made of the teams he won those 7 close games against again and look at the effort that was required to beat them. Tennessee 2x, Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, and Kansas City. Those are really bad teams.

And what worries me about Luck in the long term is that he is already a very mentally advanced player. He will get better with getting rid of the ball quicker and decision making just off of continued experience alone. But his arm strength and lack of accuracy, coupled with the fact that I am not sure how much mental development he has left, makes me worried that Luck is already much closer to his ceiling than Cam, Wilson, or RG3 and is already not as good as they are.


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