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Talent, Math, and Luck


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#16 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:42 PM

Rayzor, there's a distinct difference between "everything is fine" and "FIRE EVERYONE!! RIVERA SUX! JR SHOULD DIE ALREADY!!!"

They're both unrealistic and separate from reality, but the latter is a hell of a lot more prominent of late and more annoying. Perhaps if people made statements like "Rivera struggled a lot this year, and he needs to show real improvement to merit his return" rather than "we're doomed to mediocrity because that asshat got another shot because JR is a cheap bastard" I wouldn't be blasting away at this bullshit.

I know you wanted a new head coach, but for God's sake, the man showed some growth this year, so give him a chance and stop being so downright negative.

you've been jumping to extremes more than me in your trying to defend rivera.

i've been consistent in saying that rivera has to get the team to the playoffs or at the very least a winning season next year to keep his job. i don't think he's nearly good enough for us, meaning a new GM, to not be allowed to look for other options.

and yes...i saw a little growth in some areas, but not enough in the biggest sticking points which is his late game management. i think it will cost us more games in the future than it already has.

i have a different opinion than you. it's a shame that you're so stuck in this tiny little world that says you know more than anyone and if someone has a different opinion than you then they're a moron.

some have higher standards and expectations than you. some are looking for things that you aren't. just because you get paid to analyze football (and don't make the mistake of saying you're the only one who does) doesn't mean you know more than anyone in here or that you are more of an expert than anyone.

it doesn't matter if i give him another chance or not. he's here for at least another year so all i can do is sit back and root for my team and hope that if rivera fails to get this team winning early and often next year, missing out on the playoffs that the new GM has the balls to say that's enough and we try to find someone that can make this team winning. based on what i've seen in the big picture, i just have no faith in his ability to do anything than make an effort at the end of the season to try and save his job. you don't agree with it? get over it.

#17 Delhommey

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:49 PM

My biggest fear is Rivera is going to be here longer than a year due to Cam coming of age next year and propelling us into the playoffs where Ron's risk aversion will result in a heartbreaking OT loss to some underdog who's comeback is fueled by our poor clock management and desire to sit on a small lead.

#18 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:56 PM

This is true but it also gives Belichick the ability to take more risks in his picks like taking a talented TE coming off a very serious back injury. Or sending a 4th round draft pick to the Raiders for a troubled and aging WR. Or burning a 6th rounder on a back up QB from Michigan.

He's also excellent at gauging the draft. While normally he trades down to get more "lottery tickets", last year it became apparent that moving up in the draft had suddenly gotten dirt cheap. What does he do? Moves up 7 slots on each of his two first round picks (one gotten from NO last year) to grab the two guys he wanted for the low price of a 3rd and 4th rounder. Both Jones and Hightower are starters on his improved defense.

Also, as is well know, there are no loyalty extensions. On the downside of your career you are traded if you can be or cut if you can't (unless your name is Tom Brady).

Compare this to the Panthers and their tendency to offer lucrative contracts to "core" players (resulting in cap hell) and trade away draft picks for players falling down the boards and for players ownership feels can shore up local ticket sales.

And you can't say that's all Hurney.

it's a cultural thing.

loyalty to players or commitment to winning.

belichick has a commitment to winning that we haven't had. the commitment to this organization has been to it's players and that has held this team back more than anything. belichick is pragmatic. the objective is always to make his team better. panthers just like to do what they can to keep players around, even if there are cheaper and just as or more effective alternatives out there.

we have a culture that isn't based on excellence, it's based on complacency...and that's not by luck. it's by being dedicated on an organizational level to not being the best...just ok. belichick and other organizations that are perennial winners have a dedication to being excellent and that seeps through every crack within the organization all the way through the coaches and the players. and players know that if they aren't being a significant part of what's happening, and that doesn't mean just effort, but performance, then they will be looking for work elsewhere. they know that regardless of how long you've been there, how much you're making, who you are or even how hard you try if the production isn't there then they won't be there much longer.

that just isn't the way this team has worked. they've prided themselves on not being excellent, but being loyal to their players. that in itself is a recipe for complacency, mediocrity, and ultimately failure.

#19 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:58 PM

My biggest fear is Rivera is going to be here longer than a year due to Cam coming of age next year and propelling us into the playoffs where Ron's risk aversion will result in a heartbreaking OT loss to some underdog who's comeback is fueled by our poor clock management and desire to sit on a small lead.

the fear of failure causes paralysis in some. i've seen that in fox and i see it in rivera.

#20 fieryprophet

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:59 PM

you've been jumping to extremes more than me in your trying to defend rivera.

i've been consistent in saying that rivera has to get the team to the playoffs or at the very least a winning season next year to keep his job. i don't think he's nearly good enough for us, meaning a new GM, to not be allowed to look for other options.

and yes...i saw a little growth in some areas, but not enough in the biggest sticking points which is his late game management. i think it will cost us more games in the future than it already has.

i have a different opinion than you. it's a shame that you're so stuck in this tiny little world that says you know more than anyone and if someone has a different opinion than you then they're a moron.

some have higher standards and expectations than you. some are looking for things that you aren't. just because you get paid to analyze football (and don't make the mistake of saying you're the only one who does) doesn't mean you know more than anyone in here or that you are more of an expert than anyone.

it doesn't matter if i give him another chance or not. he's here for at least another year so all i can do is sit back and root for my team and hope that if rivera fails to get this team winning early and often next year, missing out on the playoffs that the new GM has the balls to say that's enough and we try to find someone that can make this team winning. based on what i've seen in the big picture, i just have no faith in his ability to do anything than make an effort at the end of the season to try and save his job. you don't agree with it? get over it.


I have no qualms with any of the above. Our arguments have been more about Harbaugh being an elite coach than over Rivera. I'm non-committal to Rivera because I want to see that his late-season aggressiveness continues. If he falls back on not using the game's best short yardage back in situations that demand it I'll be right there with you yelling for his head.

But the laments of how we're going to waste another year as if there's no possibility that Rivera can improve at all just gets on my nerves, as I'm sure you can tell. And the ferocity of attacks on JR and the organization as a whole that has cropped up on the Huddle has really got me raging; even Zod indulges in this idiotic behavior. I think watching the playoffs has people in a pissy mood because we're not participating, but there are some absolutely bright, bright rays of light on the Panthers future, and the reason we' obsess over the doom and gloom is because we imagine having Cam solves all the other issues the 2010 disaster left us with. But at some point we're going to be a very, very good team again, and unless most of the advanced data and scouting and word of mouth in the football community I've come across is wrong it won't be long at all. A lot of very savvy football people thought we were still a year away this season, and now. . .we're not.

#21 L-TownCat

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:59 PM

My biggest fear is Rivera is going to be here longer than a year due to Cam coming of age next year and propelling us into the playoffs where Ron's risk aversion will result in a heartbreaking OT loss to some underdog who's comeback is fueled by our poor clock management and desire to sit on a small lead.


Wait, you're already scared that we could possibly maybe lose a playoff game? LOL, delhommey, if this team gets to the playoffs I'm not even sure i would watch the game. I would just smile ambivalently at the fact we made it and the haters can kiss Cam's chocolate salty balls.

but no, seriously I would watch...

just kiddin around with ya though, i get your point.

#22 Delhommey

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 02:02 PM

it's a cultural thing.

loyalty to players or commitment to winning.

belichick has a commitment to winning that we haven't had. the commitment to this organization has been to it's players and that has held this team back more than anything. belichick is pragmatic. the objective is always to make his team better. panthers just like to do what they can to keep players around, even if there are cheaper and just as or more effective alternatives out there.

we have a culture that isn't based on excellence, it's based on complacency...and that's not by luck. it's by being dedicated on an organizational level to not being the best...just ok. belichick and other organizations that are perennial winners have a dedication to being excellent and that seeps through every crack within the organization all the way through the coaches and the players. and players know that if they aren't being a significant part of what's happening, and that doesn't mean just effort, but performance, then they will be looking for work elsewhere. they know that regardless of how long you've been there, how much you're making, who you are or even how hard you try if the production isn't there then they won't be there much longer.

that just isn't the way this team has worked. they've prided themselves on not being excellent, but being loyal to their players. that in itself is a recipe for complacency, mediocrity, and ultimately failure.


Ehhhh, I don't think Richardson doesn't want to win as an owner. He just doesn't know how to do it.

From all evidence he's too hands on, likes exec's that follow his lead, and hires head coaches that are too defensive minded and risk averse.

#23 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 02:07 PM

I have no qualms with any of the above. Our arguments have been more about Harbaugh being an elite coach than over Rivera. I'm non-committal to Rivera because I want to see that his late-season aggressiveness continues. If he falls back on not using the game's best short yardage back in situations that demand it I'll be right there with you yelling for his head.

But the laments of how we're going to waste another year as if there's no possibility that Rivera can improve at all just gets on my nerves, as I'm sure you can tell. And the ferocity of attacks on JR and the organization as a whole that has cropped up on the Huddle has really got me raging; even Zod indulges in this idiotic behavior. I think watching the playoffs has people in a pissy mood because we're not participating, but there are some absolutely bright, bright rays of light on the Panthers future, and the reason we' obsess over the doom and gloom is because we imagine having Cam solves all the other issues the 2010 disaster left us with. But at some point we're going to be a very, very good team again, and unless most of the advanced data and scouting and word of mouth in the football community I've come across is wrong it won't be long at all. A lot of very savvy football people thought we were still a year away this season, and now. . .we're not.

you see...there you go calling it idiotic behavior.

who are you to judge? who are you to tell people that they shouldn't be acting like that or having no or very little faith in what has been happening here? who are you to tell people that their belief that this team still hasn't learned how to win isn't justified? that all we have right now is all we've ever really had except for a few years...hopes and promises that next year will be better and that just isn't good enough anymore.

all that matters to the growing number of disgruntled fans is winning and this team hasn't shown in it's history, esp. in the past few years, that it knows how to get it done. a last minute hurrah just isn't going to cut it anymore, regardless of how impressive it is.

#24 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 02:11 PM

Ehhhh, I don't think Richardson doesn't want to win as an owner. He just doesn't know how to do it.

From all evidence he's too hands on, likes exec's that follow his lead, and hires head coaches that are too defensive minded and risk averse.

100% agreed. i have no qualms whatsover about JR the man.

i just don't think he knows what he's doing, which is why he hired accorsi. i just wish he had given the GM the choice of coaches and hope that gettleman is given the freedom to replace rivera if rivera fails to deliver the playoffs. i hope he allows gettleman to get the players in here that will make the team better. i hope he's allowed to find the right coach. i hope that he doesn't put limits on decisions based on personal biases. i'm just not confident that will be the case, though.

#25 Frash Brastard

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 06:14 PM

just what lengths will people go to in order to validate losing on this board

#26 Kral

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 07:05 PM

I agree with the main point that getting Brady was an extreme stroke of fortune for the Patriots and I can surmise from this that indeed it does take some luck to be top tier but the funny thing is you can't count on luck and need to learn to succeed with only a little of it.

#27 footballisasport

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 07:32 PM

There has been a lot of discussion on the boards about creating a "winning" culture in Carolina. About not missing on draft choices and getting quality players. I found a very good article by Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald and it highlights what I've thought for a long time about winning in the NLF.

You need a certain amount of pure luck and Tom Brady (or other random Superstar QB)

Here's the link to the article.

http://www.miamihera...triots-and.html





The Panthers will get this winning culture but it will come from winning, not the other way around. And we'll start winning because we have the real secret sauce to winning and that's Cammy Cam Juice.


The real difference between Tom and Cam was no one knew what they were going to get out a QB who was chosen by the media to go off the draftboard high in the first round and ended up near the bottom of the draftboard. Tom Brady still has an ax to grind. Cam has something to prove. Tom Brady was given a chance to grow and fail by the media. Cam, not so much. The Pariots have a certain mindset when it comes to winning. One is still wondering what he Panthers team mindset is when it comes to winning. Tom is playing in a much easier division. Cam isn't.

Yep, there are a whole lot of facors that goes into making that perfect team. Some of it is luck and most of it is patience and maturity.

#28 wade

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 08:02 PM

I agree with the main point that getting Brady was an extreme stroke of fortune for the Patriots and I can surmise from this that indeed it does take some luck to be top tier but the funny thing is you can't count on luck and need to learn to succeed with only a little of it.


Imagine Tony Pike looking like a future Hall of Famer and leading the Panthers to a Super Bowl win in his 2nd season. My head asplode.

#29 mountainpantherfan2

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 08:15 PM

I've posted this before a couple years back. Do you know what team had the worst start as a franshise going 24 years without a playoff win and only 2 playoff appearances during that span?

Answer the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were the originals Raiders. They sucked and for a long time. What changed? Nothing really. It just all finally came together. There isn't an issue until the owner/team stops trying to win. But as long as he is trying to win its just trail and error.

#30 Fan01

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 09:00 PM

just because you get paid to analyze football (and don't make the mistake of saying you're the only one who does) doesn't mean you know more than anyone in here or that you are more of an expert than anyone.

based on what i've seen in the big picture, i just have no faith in his ability to do anything than make an effort at the end of the season to try and save his job. you don't agree with it? get over it.


That first paragraph makes me wonder why I'm even bothering to respond but you post a lot and seem to sum up the attitude about the Panthers and Rivera that I find so disagreeable.

So, I'm asking what is this big picture you've seen and why do you have no faith in his ability. Please don't give me quasi ethereal answers like, he's a bad game manager and can't lead. If that's you opinion then give me specifics on why you feel that way. Give me example to support your argument.

I'm not blind to the mistakes the Panthers and Rivera have made but it's the whole black and white, he's sucks, we're doomed, we're one of the worst teams in the NFL with little hope to fix anything due to a losing culture and bad meddling owner.


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