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Talent, Math, and Luck


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#11 Panthro

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:19 PM

Some teams just get "Lucky!"

Owner Jerry Richardson, speaking to the media for the first time in almost three years and at is his first news conference setting in nine years, called a published report that he or general manager Marty Hurney had been in contact with Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh for weeks completely false. When asked if the team has an interest in Harbaugh specifically, owner Jerry Richardson laughed off that idea, saying, “I’m sure it’s a nice man, I’d be happy to talk to him. I have not thought about talking to him as a head coach…. But I would be nice and cordial to him if I saw him.”



#12 Delhommey

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:31 PM

The perception is that Belichick stockpiles draft picks so he can use his super-secret powers to find value late where others can’t see it, but the truth is that Belichick knows there is very little science to picking Lotto numbers, so he is just tilting the math in his favor by buying more tickets, giving himself more chances to get lucky. Helps, too, that he already won the lottery once, and at the game’s most important position.


This is true but it also gives Belichick the ability to take more risks in his picks like taking a talented TE coming off a very serious back injury. Or sending a 4th round draft pick to the Raiders for a troubled and aging WR. Or burning a 6th rounder on a back up QB from Michigan.

He's also excellent at gauging the draft. While normally he trades down to get more "lottery tickets", last year it became apparent that moving up in the draft had suddenly gotten dirt cheap. What does he do? Moves up 7 slots on each of his two first round picks (one gotten from NO last year) to grab the two guys he wanted for the low price of a 3rd and 4th rounder. Both Jones and Hightower are starters on his improved defense.

Also, as is well know, there are no loyalty extensions. On the downside of your career you are traded if you can be or cut if you can't (unless your name is Tom Brady).

Compare this to the Panthers and their tendency to offer lucrative contracts to "core" players (resulting in cap hell) and trade away draft picks for players falling down the boards and for players ownership feels can shore up local ticket sales.

And you can't say that's all Hurney.

#13 Fox007

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:36 PM

There will be a lot less negativity when there is a lot more winning...and it's not a particularly hard concept to grasp.

132-156 is the only stat I need to understand that there is a problem.

Only 1 remaining constant.

#14 fieryprophet

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:37 PM

This is true but it also gives Belichick the ability to take more risks in his picks like taking a talented TE coming off a very serious back injury. Or sending a 4th round draft pick to the Raiders for a troubled and aging WR. Or burning a 6th rounder on a back up QB from Michigan.

He's also excellent at gauging the draft. While normally he trades down to get more "lottery tickets", last year it became apparent that moving up in the draft had suddenly gotten dirt cheap. What does he do? Moves up 7 slots on each of his two first round picks (one gotten from NO last year) to grab the two guys he wanted for the low price of a 3rd and 4th rounder. Both Jones and Hightower are starters on his improved defense.

Also, as is well know, there are no loyalty extensions. On the downside of your career you are traded if you can be or cut if you can't (unless your name is Tom Brady).

Compare this to the Panthers and their tendency to offer lucrative contracts to "core" players (resulting in cap hell) and trade away draft picks for players falling down the boards and for players ownership feels can shore up local ticket sales.

And you can't say that's all Hurney.


Belichick's draft record up for about a four year stretch until 2010 was actually pretty terrible. He's an outstanding coach, but I'm not certain his personnel evaluation is better than average.

#15 Delhommey

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:40 PM

Where did I say his personnel evaluation is above average?

#16 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:42 PM

Rayzor, there's a distinct difference between "everything is fine" and "FIRE EVERYONE!! RIVERA SUX! JR SHOULD DIE ALREADY!!!"

They're both unrealistic and separate from reality, but the latter is a hell of a lot more prominent of late and more annoying. Perhaps if people made statements like "Rivera struggled a lot this year, and he needs to show real improvement to merit his return" rather than "we're doomed to mediocrity because that asshat got another shot because JR is a cheap bastard" I wouldn't be blasting away at this bullshit.

I know you wanted a new head coach, but for God's sake, the man showed some growth this year, so give him a chance and stop being so downright negative.

you've been jumping to extremes more than me in your trying to defend rivera.

i've been consistent in saying that rivera has to get the team to the playoffs or at the very least a winning season next year to keep his job. i don't think he's nearly good enough for us, meaning a new GM, to not be allowed to look for other options.

and yes...i saw a little growth in some areas, but not enough in the biggest sticking points which is his late game management. i think it will cost us more games in the future than it already has.

i have a different opinion than you. it's a shame that you're so stuck in this tiny little world that says you know more than anyone and if someone has a different opinion than you then they're a moron.

some have higher standards and expectations than you. some are looking for things that you aren't. just because you get paid to analyze football (and don't make the mistake of saying you're the only one who does) doesn't mean you know more than anyone in here or that you are more of an expert than anyone.

it doesn't matter if i give him another chance or not. he's here for at least another year so all i can do is sit back and root for my team and hope that if rivera fails to get this team winning early and often next year, missing out on the playoffs that the new GM has the balls to say that's enough and we try to find someone that can make this team winning. based on what i've seen in the big picture, i just have no faith in his ability to do anything than make an effort at the end of the season to try and save his job. you don't agree with it? get over it.

#17 Delhommey

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:49 PM

My biggest fear is Rivera is going to be here longer than a year due to Cam coming of age next year and propelling us into the playoffs where Ron's risk aversion will result in a heartbreaking OT loss to some underdog who's comeback is fueled by our poor clock management and desire to sit on a small lead.

#18 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:56 PM

This is true but it also gives Belichick the ability to take more risks in his picks like taking a talented TE coming off a very serious back injury. Or sending a 4th round draft pick to the Raiders for a troubled and aging WR. Or burning a 6th rounder on a back up QB from Michigan.

He's also excellent at gauging the draft. While normally he trades down to get more "lottery tickets", last year it became apparent that moving up in the draft had suddenly gotten dirt cheap. What does he do? Moves up 7 slots on each of his two first round picks (one gotten from NO last year) to grab the two guys he wanted for the low price of a 3rd and 4th rounder. Both Jones and Hightower are starters on his improved defense.

Also, as is well know, there are no loyalty extensions. On the downside of your career you are traded if you can be or cut if you can't (unless your name is Tom Brady).

Compare this to the Panthers and their tendency to offer lucrative contracts to "core" players (resulting in cap hell) and trade away draft picks for players falling down the boards and for players ownership feels can shore up local ticket sales.

And you can't say that's all Hurney.

it's a cultural thing.

loyalty to players or commitment to winning.

belichick has a commitment to winning that we haven't had. the commitment to this organization has been to it's players and that has held this team back more than anything. belichick is pragmatic. the objective is always to make his team better. panthers just like to do what they can to keep players around, even if there are cheaper and just as or more effective alternatives out there.

we have a culture that isn't based on excellence, it's based on complacency...and that's not by luck. it's by being dedicated on an organizational level to not being the best...just ok. belichick and other organizations that are perennial winners have a dedication to being excellent and that seeps through every crack within the organization all the way through the coaches and the players. and players know that if they aren't being a significant part of what's happening, and that doesn't mean just effort, but performance, then they will be looking for work elsewhere. they know that regardless of how long you've been there, how much you're making, who you are or even how hard you try if the production isn't there then they won't be there much longer.

that just isn't the way this team has worked. they've prided themselves on not being excellent, but being loyal to their players. that in itself is a recipe for complacency, mediocrity, and ultimately failure.

#19 rayzor

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:58 PM

My biggest fear is Rivera is going to be here longer than a year due to Cam coming of age next year and propelling us into the playoffs where Ron's risk aversion will result in a heartbreaking OT loss to some underdog who's comeback is fueled by our poor clock management and desire to sit on a small lead.

the fear of failure causes paralysis in some. i've seen that in fox and i see it in rivera.

#20 fieryprophet

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 01:59 PM

you've been jumping to extremes more than me in your trying to defend rivera.

i've been consistent in saying that rivera has to get the team to the playoffs or at the very least a winning season next year to keep his job. i don't think he's nearly good enough for us, meaning a new GM, to not be allowed to look for other options.

and yes...i saw a little growth in some areas, but not enough in the biggest sticking points which is his late game management. i think it will cost us more games in the future than it already has.

i have a different opinion than you. it's a shame that you're so stuck in this tiny little world that says you know more than anyone and if someone has a different opinion than you then they're a moron.

some have higher standards and expectations than you. some are looking for things that you aren't. just because you get paid to analyze football (and don't make the mistake of saying you're the only one who does) doesn't mean you know more than anyone in here or that you are more of an expert than anyone.

it doesn't matter if i give him another chance or not. he's here for at least another year so all i can do is sit back and root for my team and hope that if rivera fails to get this team winning early and often next year, missing out on the playoffs that the new GM has the balls to say that's enough and we try to find someone that can make this team winning. based on what i've seen in the big picture, i just have no faith in his ability to do anything than make an effort at the end of the season to try and save his job. you don't agree with it? get over it.


I have no qualms with any of the above. Our arguments have been more about Harbaugh being an elite coach than over Rivera. I'm non-committal to Rivera because I want to see that his late-season aggressiveness continues. If he falls back on not using the game's best short yardage back in situations that demand it I'll be right there with you yelling for his head.

But the laments of how we're going to waste another year as if there's no possibility that Rivera can improve at all just gets on my nerves, as I'm sure you can tell. And the ferocity of attacks on JR and the organization as a whole that has cropped up on the Huddle has really got me raging; even Zod indulges in this idiotic behavior. I think watching the playoffs has people in a pissy mood because we're not participating, but there are some absolutely bright, bright rays of light on the Panthers future, and the reason we' obsess over the doom and gloom is because we imagine having Cam solves all the other issues the 2010 disaster left us with. But at some point we're going to be a very, very good team again, and unless most of the advanced data and scouting and word of mouth in the football community I've come across is wrong it won't be long at all. A lot of very savvy football people thought we were still a year away this season, and now. . .we're not.


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