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Drafting a Guard in the first round


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#91 Growl

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 02:22 PM


lol since when was the draft about taking a "sure thing"

It's about making your team as good as possible. Not "zomg we can't risk drafting a bust! I'm so scared of busts! I cry every night over the Thought of drafting a bust!!"

It's fairly simple really, when you run a Marty Hurney drafting approach that is designed to take the SPA (Safest Player Available) you build an organization that is going to constantly hit 7-9.

When you draft to make your team as good as possible, you take your lumps, but the bang you get from selecting good players at valuable positions equals perennial success.



You take the best player available... Warmack will be a 12 yr starter in this league. The only position I would consider taking over Warmack would be a Future LT (Johnson) he isn't going to fall past San Diego. There are no other players that are a sure thing, ill take a stud over a bust any day.



#92 Mr. Scot

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:01 PM

I'm not a fan of the whole "you don't draft this position at this level" mindset. There are exceptiopns (taking a kicker at #1 overall, for example) but generally speaking, I say if you think Player X is the best guy to take at your spot, then take him.

#93 rayzor

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:09 PM

I agree too. However, the first round this year really sucks compared to previous years. Maybe I am wrong here, but i look at it this way:

If I can draft a top CB, DE, LOT, or QB in the first, then that is five years I am not having to pay a player on a second contract at that position. Some DEs make $15 million, for example. No Guards do. A solid G runs you about $5-7 million on a second contract.

We can have 2 starting veteran guards for the same price one DE is paid.

So basically, I am suggesting that you have one DE, DT,and CB on a rookie contract at all times. If not, you run the risk of having 20% of your salary cap at one position that is NOT QB.

Next year, we could be sitting at the negotiating table with Greg Hardy's agent, who will be throwing Charles Johnson's contract at Gettlemen. If he comes close to getting CJ $$, we are talking about $22 million for defensive ends.

By playing one DE on a rookie deal at all times, your DE expense is about $8 million cheaper. hypothetically, the DE plays out the 5 year rookie contract while his counterpart enters a 5-year second contract. The savings, $8 million or so, is enough to pay for 2 veteran guards on second contracts.

I realize that it is not that easy, but the concept is solid.

Do the same thing at CB. One second contract, one rookie deal. When the CB hits 30, re-sign your player on a rookie contract to a second contract and draft a rookie.

Do the same thing at DT.

Do the same thing at WR. Essentially--and extremely hypothetically--you draft one of these key positions most years. Marty did not do this--he neglected CB, WR, DT, and even QB. Instead, he drafted safe, easy-to-find positions like RB (2), OL, LB most recently.

So, essentially, your first rounders are loosely restricted to a few, expensive positions, unless a player is overwhelmingly better than the rest.

Chance Warmack could be that exception. However, I KNOW some starting-quality rookie Guards will drop to the fourth round.

SOLID post and totally agreed. great concept.

and solid guards always drop because it's just not a premium position. if you scout well, you find those guys.

#94 kman72

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:13 PM

lol since when was the draft about taking a "sure thing"

It's about making your team as good as possible. Not "zomg we can't risk drafting a bust! I'm so scared of busts! I cry every night over the Thought of drafting a bust!!"

It's fairly simple really, when you run a Marty Hurney drafting approach that is designed to take the SPA (Safest Player Available) you build an organization that is going to constantly hit 7-9.

When you draft to make your team as good as possible, you take your lumps, but the bang you get from selecting good players at valuable positions equals perennial success.



There have always been such thing as a sure thing. It gets complicated when you look at a prospect and attempt to place a trouble word on it. That word is called "Potential"

There is a time and place to take risk with a boom or bust player, Cam Newton for example was a risk/reward pick that we needed at the time. We were in serious trouble as a franchise without a QB and he was the player with most POTENTIAL to change the franchise.

This year if Warmack is there he fits a huge need and would be the BPA. You cant look at where a player should go, look at if he helps your team and go with it.

#95 rayzor

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:21 PM

I'm not a fan of the whole "you don't draft this position at this level" mindset. There are exceptiopns (taking a kicker at #1 overall, for example) but generally speaking, I say if you think Player X is the best guy to take at your spot, then take him.

it can never and should never be as simple as just that.

need must be accounted for in that decision...like if the BPA is a MLB or a QB or an RB...do we really take one over DT, CB, WR, FS, etc.?

also, what is my board looking like for that position later? can i find someone of nearly equal value later? is there a thinner grouping for this position than others?

is this position as crucial for the team as others, esp. crucial enough to warrant this early selection?

there's just too many factors to take in.

#96 BigSyke

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:22 PM

my list to a good offense

1.qb(cam newton)
2.oline(star left tackle first priority)
3.star deep threat wr1+wr2(harrison/wayne)
4.slot wr(quick+good route runner+sure hands)/te(catch+block+tall mismatch in redzone)
5.rb(good vision+ game speed+ break tackles+catch out of backfield)

#97 The Huddler

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:45 PM

Im tired of seeing our RBs get smacked in the backfield. We need OL. Im cool with Warmack

#98 PrettyKitty

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:05 PM

Well, I think this discussion is all for naught; Warmack will be gone before pick 15 comes around....Any other guard available is not worth the 15th pick, IMO...

#99 Happy Panther

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:24 PM

Well, I think this discussion is all for naught; Warmack will be gone before pick 15 comes around....Any other guard available is not worth the 15th pick, IMO...


Warmack is apparently that good. Some are saying he is the best talent in the draft.

I wouldn't undervalue the G position. A stud there improves the whole line. Maybe it's a solution to keeping Gross on the left side. Wouldn't be my expected pick but this draft has us taking him.

http://www.cbssports...ftscout-RobRang

#100 NCstoner420

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:36 PM

I was on the Warmack train before the combine but he seemed like he wasn't all there when doing all the drills. I hope he shows up for his pro day on the 13th.

#101 Mr. Scot

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:13 PM

it can never and should never be as simple as just that.

need must be accounted for in that decision...like if the BPA is a MLB or a QB or an RB...do we really take one over DT, CB, WR, FS, etc.?

also, what is my board looking like for that position later? can i find someone of nearly equal value later? is there a thinner grouping for this position than others?

is this position as crucial for the team as others, esp. crucial enough to warrant this early selection?

there's just too many factors to take in.


Not discounting any of that. All of these things go into how you build your draft board.

Just saying if there's a guy atop your draft board when your turn comes up, I'm not a big fan of hesitating based on the notion that "you don't take Position X in Round Y".

#102 SauceBoss

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:13 PM

you don't need a probowler. you just need some guy that doesn't get pushed around much, who can open a hole or two, and doesn't get many holding calls or false starts. basically just some guy who isn't a liability. they aren't hard to find and they don't cost a lot.

you could make a case for OT, but that has more to do with OTs in FA being expensive. still they take longer to look good than other positions you could be picking up so you got to be ready for that.


So what you're saying is we don't need what we already have? Cut both guards, find new cheaper ones.

#103 Frash Brastard

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 03:20 AM

drafting a guard in the first round is like spending $80 on a pair of underwear

#104 Brokenbad

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 07:21 PM

It would be a SUPER boring pick when we need playermakers at skill positions.

#105 Frizzy350

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 12:31 PM

Who wants a tackling machine MLB with a top 10 pick when you can get a serviceable MLB in FA for cheap?

See where I'm going with this?

Its all about balancing the value of the pick with the impact the pick makes.

Cooper or Warmack would make an astronomical impact on our offense. Last year I was calling for us to pick DeCastro because I knew guard would be a huge area of concern for our offense. The offensive line is only as strong as it's weakest link and having one horribly incompetent starter will make the entire line incompetent. We have some really good players on our Oline, but our elite (Gross and Kalil) aren't known to be maulers- we need at least one guy who plays with a bit of excessive aggression.

I know many are calling for a corner stating that its a more valuable position, but if you look over the past decades worth of drafts and you realize there is a VERY high bust rate for first round corners. DT I feel is kind of in the same boat; sure guys like Suh, McCoy and Darius turn out well, but other then that most of the first round DTs are viewed as project players in some manner. There are enough promising receivers this year to address that need in the second. OT would be a great route to go if we can get one of the good ones coming out, but I fear the top 3 will be gone when we pick.


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