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Kurb's Mock and Commentary on Panthers Thread


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#1 Kurb

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 08:53 AM

Usually I do something like this every year. In years past the NFL Draft forum was much much less active and you would maybe see a few dozen mocks in here at most. This year it has been quite abuzz and as such I have shy'ed away, letting folks go wild.

I am excited to see so many more Panther fans reading up on potential draft picks and doing their own mocks. I do, however, want to reiterate there is not "wrong" mock draft. Some may be more informed or accurate to what reality will be, but there is not "wrong" opinion on the draft and how it does down.

First I want to look at out missing positions, then out signings, then potential draft moves and picks.



The way I see it out biggest missing "pieces" are as follows and not particularly in any important order.


Future CB play and stability.
Future RT, LT, RG play and stability
Future DT (x2) Play and stability
Future OLB stability
Future WR Play and Stability
Future SS/FS Play
Future Special Teams Playmaking
Future K Play and Stability

That leaves the following "set and stable" with playmakers

QB
RB
TE
LG
ILB
DE
FS (well it's stable at least)

To address this Dave "The Don" Gettleman has signed/resigned players to contribute, fight for roster spots, and/or be bodies. I don't particularly feel these signings "fix" the spots as they are, 1) One year deals and 2) no names to really make you rush out and buy a news paper add to predict a SuperBowl.

Understand there is till time to add more bodies/competitors/play-makers but our cap continues to be stretched thinner and thinner. There is only so much wiggle room available to "The Don". Luckily after next year, if he continues the current course, Gettleman will have much more space to move around in FA, thus making the Draft more of a frosting for the cake he is cooking that is the Panthers Roster.

Also notice most of our needs are not only for today, but building for the "Future". I believe Don Gettleman see's some good parts here and rightfully so. I am going to assume he will use an approach of 30+ guys on short deals while any long term FA signing will be a young player and possibly one that is "one the rise" instead of the bandaid deal you create in giving a 28-29 yr old player a 5 year big contract. Future Building = Long Term Success.

So, moving into the draft we have identified our needs as follows.


CB
RT, LT, RG
DT (x2)
OLB
WR
SS/FS
Special Teams Playmaking
K

Struck through listings are going to be assumed as "fixed for this year or very low priority (late round pick/UDFA).

So we will assume Don Gettleman wants to BPA the following positions
CB, WR, RG and DT.

Lets get to mocking such a draft. I won't include trades, but I do want to address them.

This is a year we can get exceptional benefit from trading back. The 2013 NFL draft appears to me to be really flat from Pick 1 to roughly the middle of the 2nd round. Not a huge difference talent.

IMO a trade like the Revis for Beason/Kalil trade would be ideal. We move back roughly 8-10 spots and add a 2nd and a 4th/5th round pick. This would not change our needs mind you, but would allow us to begin a process of stockpiling picks. I would even go so far as to say we could trade away the extra second for more pick next season. As next years draft will have some VERY VERY interesting names at the top. All this said, I dislike mocking trades, so I wont do it.


Now lets mock our 5 picks. (14-44-108-148-182)

Round 1) Lane Johnson OT (Oklahoma)

Now you are saying "WTF KURB We NEEDS CB/WR/RG/DT" and that is true. However picking a player like Johnson can in theory help RG. The Panthers have experiemented with Bell at RG and Gross, as much as we love him, is getting older by the second. Lane could absolutely follow the same career path as Gross, starting at RT then taking over after he packs on muscle and experience. There is a good chance Lane will be taken earlier as there appears to be a definite "Big 3" in the OT's so alternate picks would be one of the 4 "need" area's.


Round 2) Keenan Allen WR, Cal.
Allen was considered a top 15 pick this time last year. He was straight balling at Cal during his softmore season. Then 2 things happened, his QB poo the bed and Allen hurt his Ankle and his Knee. That said the kid played last season and I "think" he has checked out medically in most everything. He is big fast and still has upside.

Another good option for a pick would be Jessie Williams, and him falling is a chance for sure.


Round 4) Terry Hawthorne CB Illinois

"Who"...Yeah I feel ya. This pick might be strange to many of you, but it fits with how I think about the draft. After picks 1/2/3 I personally start thinking of the draft as a big crap shoot. Round 4/5/6/7 are about getting a guy that COULD become The Guy. Hawthorne is that type of player. He is known for being a team guy and a ballhawk. He needs some refinement and if he gets it could be an exceptional DB.

I like the HoneyBadger in this area (4th/5th) as well, but I'm crazy like that.


Round 5) Bennie Logan, DT LSU

He's big, he's fat, he has good upside. I like when I read things like "high motor" when it comes to be DT's. A guy like Logan is some solid coaching up from being a starter. He does appear to already have the strength and drive to be a decent NT.



Round 6) Some Guy, Some Where, Some Position


Honestly for this round and 7th round and UDFA, All are a wash. I'm looking to add bodies with high potential and/or guys that are busted up and are going to heal before training camp. College OT's that can play OG (think Carl Nicks), CB's too slow that can become safeties, WR's that are missing "something" but are athletic to no end. Those kinds of things.


Hope you enjoy.
Go Panthers...

#2 TheRumGone

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:06 AM

Love it. If Keenan Allen fell to the 2nd I would go ballistic.....

And 1,000 posts...yay me.

#3 firstdayfan

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:16 AM

Um....I like where your heads at but I just don't see Johnson (who I love) falling to us and I definitely don't see Allen (who I think is overrated) falling to us in the second. But like you said, anything could happen and there's no wrong picks. I also find it hard to believe we add more bodies at cornerback. We absolutely could bc like you said we dont have a top corner on the team but I firmly believe that Gettlemen expects the competition at corner to get the best out of the talent there. And with our pass rush we really don't need a "shutdown" corner, not that it isn't a great luxury to have, I just dont think that's in the plan right now. What I will say is that if Johnson or Star falls to 14 it will be a no brainer. If not, they could go in a number of directions. Me personally I'd take Warmack if he's there. Possibly the best player in the draft, like Kuechly, but no one takes guards in the top 10. If not Warmack I wouldn't mind seeing Tavon Austin. He could be a dynamic playmaker for the offense, can't pass up on those. And finally, way down the list would be a DT not named Star. Richardson doesn't really do it for me. I'd much rather wait until the second to get a DT, a big plugger like Williams or John Jenkins. I also look for us to add a mauling right tackle in the 4th or 5th round. Someone to push Bell. Then grab a safety like Wolfe from NC State and maybe and some OLB depth and call it a day.

#4 Dash Global

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:17 AM

Johnson will in no way be available at 14.

#5 Kurb

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:19 AM

Thanks for the comments.

Nothing is for sure in the draft.

I read rumors about this guy and that, and realize they are all lies.


Adding potential to a position that has little is always a good thing. 1yr deals are easy to remove from the books. I wouldn't consider anyone we have signed to the CB position a lock for the roster, nor anyone under contract. It's a position in flux.


Johnson will in no way be available at 14.


Maybe, Maybe not.
I prefer to not speak in definitive terms when it comes to a process that is 100% unknown and roughly 100% random.

If I told you the Panthers were going to trade up for Everette Brown by giving away a future 1st round pick would you have said that was impossible as well?

#6 XClown1986

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:21 AM

Johnson will in no way be available at 14.


I think it honestly depends on how teams feel about Star's health, and whether or not a team folds under the pressure and drafts a QB earlier than others anticipated. It's possible.

#7 BigSyke

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:24 AM

Don't think Lane Johnson will be there. Not a big fan of it but decent.

#8 Panthro

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:31 AM

Thanks for the comments.

Nothing is for sure in the draft.

I read rumors about this guy and that, and realize they are all lies.


Adding potential to a position that has little is always a good thing. 1yr deals are easy to remove from the books. I wouldn't consider anyone we have signed to the CB position a lock for the roster, nor anyone under contract. It's a position in flux.




Maybe, Maybe not.
I prefer to not speak in definitive terms when it comes to a process that is 100 unknown and roughly 100% random.


If I told you the Panthers were going to trade up for Everette Brown by giving away a future 1st round pick would you have said that was impossible as well?

This times a gabillion

#9 Kevin Greene

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:40 AM

If in some way we can put a quality pick that makes sense at that number in the OL and WR spot with the 1 and 2 picks I'd be a happy camper .We'll see what's available on the board come draft day.

#10 BigSyke

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:45 AM

Hey Kurb why didn't you take a DT earlier?

#11 BigSyke

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:50 AM

Oh and also do you think Gano(K) is good enough to win close games?

#12 Panthro

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:55 AM

Who is my Luke Kuechly this year? Who would I hate for the Panthers to draft but in the end being totally fuging awesome and make me look like a complete nimrod.

Jarvis Jones

#13 Kurb

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:08 AM

Hey Kurb why didn't you take a DT earlier?


No big reason really. DT does have a high bust rate, but I don't buy into that so much. Our DT positions need youth for sure and talent. I wouldn't have a problem with the Panthers picking one early. All that said, I worry more about our O-Line than our D-line for 2013. Which is why I took a day one contributor (projected) with Lane and a developmental guy late in the DT spot.

Oh and also do you think Gano(K) is good enough to win close games?


Not really, but UDFA kickers are a dime a dozen and you can find gold there.

#14 Swaggasaurus

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:42 AM

I like these player, but only Hawthorne will be available in the rounds you selected these guys.

#15 IamSoClutch

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:23 AM

unrealistic. johnston will not be there in the 1st and allen will not be there in the 2nd. period


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