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Reach Shmeach

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I've been thinking lately how all the prospects projected to go around 14 don't appeal to me.

Richardson
Vacarro
Austin
Patterson

Mocks usually have us taking one of these guys. I know I don't speak for everyone here, but choosing between these 4 are a bit like choosing which STD you'd rather have on your nuts. I much rather choose between these guys:

Allen
Hopkins
Cyprien
Sly
Fluker

The consensus is that these guys are a bit of a reach at 14. Well you know what? Fug that. Let's say you really, really like Hopkins -- you think he's the best WR in this draft (incidentally, he's the only prospect that visited the Panthers twice; unless you want to count Allen's workout at Proelific Park a visit). How far would you be willing to trade down? Well hell, even dropping past the Rams at 16 would make me uneasy. You just don't know how other teams rate players.

What am I trying to say? I'm saying that there's a good chance that the Panthers will stay at 14 and 'reach' for someone like Hopkins. When that happens, I'll be prepared and fine with it. You guys should jump on board.

Peace.
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Basically if Kiper grades your draft well then you fuged up

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i just want to know who is the established authority on who is a reach or not?
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[quote name='rayzor' timestamp='1365919789' post='2194403']
i just want to know who is the established authority on who is a reach or not?
[/quote]The omniscient members of the Huddle.
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I'm fine with prospects like Allen, Hopkins, L. Johnson and Cyprien at 14th. Good value. As for 44th, prospects such as Escobar, B. Williams, Swearinger, Sly, D. Rogers and Warfold would be fantastic.

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[quote name='rayzor' timestamp='1365919789' post='2194403']
i just want to know who is the established authority on who is a reach or not?
[/quote]

Precisely. It's even vaguer with this year's draft. There's lots of quality, 2nd tier players.
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everyone has their own opinion on players. Your opinion isn't everybody's. Me personally, I don't give 2 flippity fuccks who the hell we draft. As long as whoever it is makes us better and contributes to us winning I couldn't care less. I'm certainly not going to spend time worrying about.

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[quote name='Promethean Forerunner' timestamp='1365920327' post='2194405']
I'm fine with prospects like Allen, [b]Hopkins, L. Johnson and Cyprien[/b] at 14th. Good value. As for 44th, prospects such as [b]Escobar,[/b] B. Williams, [b]Swearinger,[/b] [b]Sly, D. Rogers[/b] and Warfold would be fantastic.
[/quote]

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Armanti Edwards was a player they liked. Everette Brown was a player they liked.

I thought after those 2 players. That all Panther fans would understand the true meaning of why you shouldn't reach in the draft.

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I've been feeling for a while now that Keenan Allen will be the pick for some reason. Just a hunch.

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[quote name='The Original SCP' timestamp='1365926561' post='2194414']
I've been feeling for a while now that Keenan Allen will be the pick for some reason. Just a hunch.
[/quote]


Yeah, fug that. Lets draft someone who doesn't offer us anything different than what we already have. To hell with threatining the seams or having a true deep threat. Give me the possession receiver.

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[quote name='La Pantera' timestamp='1365941774' post='2194432']
Yeah, fug that. Lets draft someone who doesn't offer us anything different than what we already have. To hell with threatining the seams or having a true deep threat. Give me the possession receiver.
[/quote]

I think people sometimes get caught up in labels with recievers. He is a possession receiver, oh we already have one of those. From what I've seen Keenan Allen is unlike any receiver we have on this roster. I would be happy with the pick.

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[quote name='La Pantera' timestamp='1365941774' post='2194432']
Yeah, fug that. Lets draft someone who doesn't offer us anything different than what we already have. To hell with threatining the seams or having a true deep threat. Give me the possession receiver.
[/quote]

Yeah because the best receivers in the league are all deep threats. Screw knowing how to get open and run routes long as they can run fast, love that Raiders philosophy. I mean Boldin is a burner and the Ravens wouldnt have won a Superbowl without him the way he was torching defenses.
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[quote name='CPF4LIFE' timestamp='1365944160' post='2194463']


Yeah because the best receivers in the league are all deep threats. Screw knowing how to get open and run routes long as they can run fast, love that Raiders philosophy. I mean Boldin is a burner and the Ravens wouldnt have won a Superbowl without him the way he was torching defenses.
[/quote]



A deep threat is necessary in the type of offence we run. Boldin is a great WR, but he had a true deep threat lined up opposite of him. And the Ravens valued him so much they traded him. None of us know if Allen will even be on Boldins level. Id say not IMO. I think Nuk offers the same route running abilities and can still stretch the field.


[quote name='ButWhysTheRumGone' timestamp='1365943890' post='2194458']

I think people sometimes get caught up in labels with recievers. He is a possession receiver, oh we already have one of those. From what I've seen Keenan Allen is unlike any receiver we have on this roster. I would be happy with the pick.
[/quote]


I'd like to have a guy who can take over that #1 spot when Smitty hangs it up. I don't see that in Allen. Yes he runs good routes
But getting seperation at this level is more difficult. NFL caliber CBs are much tougher than college guys. CBs may suffocate him at this level. I wouldn't be shocked if Allen fell to the 2nd round.

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[quote name='La Pantera' timestamp='1365945310' post='2194466']
I'd like to have a guy who can take over that #1 spot when Smitty hangs it up. I don't see that in Allen. Yes he runs good routes
But getting seperation at this level is more difficult. NFL caliber CBs are much tougher than college guys. CBs may suffocate him at this level. I wouldn't be shocked if Allen fell to the 2nd round.
[/quote]

You could say that about any reciever in this draft. There isn't a superstar right out of the gate. What really gets me excited about Allen is;

1. He produced with a QB who is at the level of Tebow or worse.
2. He lined up at a variety of different positions/ he is versatile.
3. He's big and is pretty shifty for a big guy.
4. The most important aspect of his game, which people undervalue. He is a great dude. Smart, Hard-working, film nut, leader and great teammate. A lot of people don't care about this, but when you add up all of this he is the total package receiver in this draft compared to everyone else.

I think Allen has just as good of a chance as any reciever in this draft to take over for Smitty.

A lot of people are timid because of the 4.71 40. He may drop to the second because of this and would be a steal at 44. I would be happy with the pick, but that said. I want DT/S in the first and WR/OG in the second. But what the fug do I know.

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[quote name='ButWhysTheRumGone' timestamp='1365946193' post='2194469']


You could say that about any reciever in this draft. There isn't a superstar right out of the gate. What really gets me excited about Allen is;

1. He produced with a QB who is at the level of Tebow or worse.
2. He lined up at a variety of different positions/ he is versatile.
3. He's big and is pretty shifty for a big guy.
4. The most important aspect of his game, which people undervalue. He is a great dude. Smart, Hard-working, film nut, leader and great teammate. A lot of people don't care about this, but when you add up all of this he is the total package receiver in this draft compared to everyone else.

I think Allen has just as good of a chance as any reciever in this draft to take over for Smitty.

A lot of people are timid because of the 4.71 40. He may drop to the second because of this and would be a steal at 44. I would be happy with the pick, but that said. I want DT/S in the first and WR/OG in the second. But what the fug do I know.
[/quote]

I just don't see a true #1 when I look at Allen. Can he be an upgrade at #2 WR? That's Definitely possible. But as I've stated, we need a real deep threat. Someone Opposing defenses are scared of. Someone who can get behind the D and score everytime they touch the ball. Smitty is the only real threat to do that at WR. And he's not quite what he used to be. Id take a few receivers over Allen.

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Pat Kirwin talks about this every year when he hears people talking about reaching. He says that if you pick 14 for example and don't pick again until 44 then you pick at 14 whoever you want if you don't think they will be there at 44. it isn't a reach if that is who you want and they aren't going to be there. As far as trading down, that is fine as long as if you trade down five spots from 14 to 19 you are willing for the top five rated guys still left on your board when you were supposed to draft at 14 to be gone when you draft at 19. You could be saying trade down to get this guy because he is a reach at 14 and the 3 guys you wanted could be all gone which totally blows the whole reason you traded down. You might get a sixth round pick but you also better be happy with who is on the board at 19 regardless of who you wanted. Otherwise you take who you want at 14.
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I'm driving the DeAndre Hopkins bandwagon

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If the right OL falls, we take him.. Otherwise i feel l like richardson will be the guy. our 44th is more important tbh.

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I'm officially on the hopkins bandwagon in the first.
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I think it funny that Rhodes or Trufant are not in the discussion.

This draft is going to be very interesting.. I am looking forward to it because we do not know how Gettlemen is going to navigate it. I have confidence in him, but I am very curious.
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We have not addressed RG in free agency, but we have addressed every other position of need. Just sayin.

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[quote name='rayzor' timestamp='1365919789' post='2194403']
i just want to know who is the established authority on who is a reach or not?
[/quote]

wat


it's a matter of opinion... just like all the favored prospects

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It's not just a matter of opinion. It's a matter of consensus opinion, and yes, there's a difference.

Let's say you really like Hopkins, someone that apparently everyone on this board fell in love with. His value comes from his skillset: he was a productive college football player, and he's got natural wide receiver skills: his hands, his route running, and his ability to high-point the ball. He's drawing comparisons to Roddy White for those reason. However, his timed forty speed is a half second slower than Roddy's, as is his shuttle, and his broad and vertical jump are measurably lower as well. In short, he's a good receiver who is also a below-average athlete for the position.

The market for that asset class (skilled guys who aren't eye-poppingly athletic) isn't that competitive. If the consensus opinion is that he's worth a pick in the mid-twenties, then spending the fourteenth pick on him amounts to overpaying by about ten picks. The gap between those picks represents 360 points on the trade value chart, which is equivalent to the value of the 22nd pick in the second round.

Now, if your front office values him significantly higher than the rest of the league, you can try to trade back to recoup the value that you're losing, or you can just pick him and forfeit the ability to get that value back. But when you reach for a lower-cost asset, you're effectively devaluing your pick, hurting your ability to improve your team.

Throwing out the value crap, it's just not as smart to risk so much on your opinion when there's a whole group of people that generally collectively get it right. Higher picks tend to be better players, and higher picks tend to be regarded as superior by other teams, draft 'experts,' and everyone else. Groupthink is often a bad thing, but works pretty well as a predictive tool.

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[quote name='panthers55' timestamp='1365951013' post='2194502']
Pat Kirwin talks about this every year when he hears people talking about reaching. He says that if you pick 14 for example and don't pick again until 44 then you pick at 14 whoever you want if you don't think they will be there at 44. it isn't a reach if that is who you want and they aren't going to be there. As far as trading down, that is fine as long as if you trade down five spots from 14 to 19 you are willing for the top five rated guys still left on your board when you were supposed to draft at 14 to be gone when you draft at 19. You could be saying trade down to get this guy because he is a reach at 14 and the 3 guys you wanted could be all gone which totally blows the whole reason you traded down. You might get a sixth round pick but you also better be happy with who is on the board at 19 regardless of who you wanted. Otherwise you take who you want at 14.
[/quote]this is kind of how i approach it.

you like who you like and damn the draftnik pseudo-experts rankings. if you like the guy and you don't think that they are going to be there the next round then you take him. if you like a couple guys and you think that one is likely to be there next round and the other isn't based on what you've heard from other FOs (not the draftniks and mockers), then you take the one you think isn't going to be there next round.

if there's a cluster of guys at a certain point that you like then you just take into consideration who would be able to help you more in the short term and/or long term. what you don't do is take into consideration what the "experts" have as their rankings and worry about taking someone at 14 that those guys thought should be at 20something.

teams have access to a lot more tape and conversations and workouts than draftniks do. if the panthers take someone at 14 that most on the outside think should have a late first to second round grade...i think that i'll be going with the team's opinion. i know right out of the gate that i'm working with a lot less info than the FO is so i'm not going to be dogmatic about the way i think things should be nor am i going to hold the opinions of countless draftniks and their rankings above that of gettleman and co. the only thing i know is not to rule out different players and positions.

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