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Reach Shmeach


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#31 rayzor

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 02:42 PM

Razor just a question. Who do you go to if not these experts (who's opinion you don't care for) for your draft information?

And since you think its a flawed system then would it be a good idea to take Duke Williams in the 1st?

i take everything with a few pinches of salt. i consider none of them really experts. there's a couple whose opinions i might consider more...guys like gil brandt, greg cossell, andrew brandt, and maybe mayock...but even then i don't take any of them as gospel. i don't have any problem disagreeing with them.

mostly, tho, i just kind of make up my own mind on players. i look at some who get hype and see what i like and what i don't like. i don't really care all that much, tho. i used to look at a lot more and do my own rankings and mocks and that kind of thing, but i honestly don't care that much. i don't get paid for it so i don't put in the work. pretty much i just go along for the ride.

as far as a flawed system...what system? you mean all this striving for some kind of consensus in the mocks and rankings or whatever? answer that if you want. i'm not sure i care what the point of that is, but as to duke williams...for the panthers? nah. i'll pass. i think he's a sucker on the field from what little bit i've seen and he's too short for a safety. i've been saying for a long time that i prefer safeties north of 6' just because of who they have to cover here. and the fact that he's gotten into a poo ton of trouble makes him a bad pick for the first round. the guy can't be trusted to keep out of trouble.

now if a team is looking for a super aggressive safety and don't care that he's short or that he's gotten in trouble a lot, then sure....i don't know what they are looking for. he might be the perfect fit. if he's the guy they want who am i to disagree? just another guy with an opinion that doesn't count for much....like everyone else.

#32 rayzor

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 02:54 PM

The experts don't matter. The guys that are making the big boards, the scouts, the GM's, those guys use most of the same processes and value most of the same traits. Like I said, it's about skillsets: big, tall quarterbacks, incredibly athletic receivers, pass rushers with great size/speed combinations. The traits that are valued in the NFL are valued that high for a reason, and players that have those traits are valued higher. It's why someone like Hopkins, who is only a decent athlete, probably won't go as high as someone like Tavon Austin.

it all depends on the situation that the player is going to be expected to fit into (or have created) around him.

none of us know for sure what these teams are looking at exactly and what they have in mind. we don't know who they've talked to surrounding the pick (not just players, but coaches etc.) or what questions they have or have asked about those players. no one does except the FOs. everything else is just a guesstimate. the fact that there are so many changes in mocked picks and rankings shows just how little the experts know. rarely it will be obvious, but most are clueless about what is going on. all they know is what they've thought up, what other experts have said, and what they've been fed from teams who aren't likely to divulge much.

hopkins might not go as high as austin, but if some team is torn between the two and are more interested in a guy with a little more size or just think he fits in better with what they are doing or want to do then hopkins could go several picks ahead of austin. all it takes is one team.

my main thing is that the draft is pretty unpredictable. a lot of guys go earlier than people think. a lot more go later than people think. and once one peg is pulled from the consensus thought tower, the whole thing comes crashing down. it's the unknown variables and unpredictable movements and picks that keep me from buying too much of what the experts say. i have no idea how things are going to shake out and i don't know of anyone who does.

#33 panthers55

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 03:09 PM

The thing draftniks do is rate players without considering who the team is drafting them. Part of the reason our draft board may differ is that we pick based on who we need. For example we might value right tackles who can run block more than we do guys who can pass block based on what we plan to do. Other teams may care more about their pass blocking since they don't run as much. So it isn't just who rates them high or low but who fits our team best. That might not be the same thing.

#34 rayzor

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 03:21 PM

The thing draftniks do is rate players without considering who the team is drafting them. Part of the reason our draft board may differ is that we pick based on who we need. For example we might value right tackles who can run block more than we do guys who can pass block based on what we plan to do. Other teams may care Mordecai about there pass blocking since they don't run as much. So it isn't just who rates them high or low but who fits our team best. That might not be the same thing.

100% agreed. they don't take into account particular situations. the thinking goes..."panthers need a DT. we've been mocking one to them for the past 3 years and they just keep on picking something else. richardson is the best DT left on our rankings. sure...let's give them this guy". sometimes it's just looking at a guy on their rankings and seeing him fall and thinking "i got to put this guy somewhere....i know...i'll stick them with the bengals. they might need a kicker (or whatever)." they don't pay attention to who teams have talked to or specific moves within their roster or schemes to see how players fit. they just put players in places. they'll work hard to look at the first few picks and might look more at teams that they like more or are more interesting, but for the most part they just throw a dart at the board with one eye covered.

#35 Kuech the Sneak

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 04:23 PM

Preach, I'd rather have anyone in that second group over the first group. Even cooper or datone jones

#36 jungleking

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 05:37 PM

it all depends on the situation that the player is going to be expected to fit into (or have created) around him.

none of us know for sure what these teams are looking at exactly and what they have in mind. we don't know who they've talked to surrounding the pick (not just players, but coaches etc.) or what questions they have or have asked about those players. no one does except the FOs. everything else is just a guesstimate. the fact that there are so many changes in mocked picks and rankings shows just how little the experts know. rarely it will be obvious, but most are clueless about what is going on. all they know is what they've thought up, what other experts have said, and what they've been fed from teams who aren't likely to divulge much.

hopkins might not go as high as austin, but if some team is torn between the two and are more interested in a guy with a little more size or just think he fits in better with what they are doing or want to do then hopkins could go several picks ahead of austin. all it takes is one team.

my main thing is that the draft is pretty unpredictable. a lot of guys go earlier than people think. a lot more go later than people think. and once one peg is pulled from the consensus thought tower, the whole thing comes crashing down. it's the unknown variables and unpredictable movements and picks that keep me from buying too much of what the experts say. i have no idea how things are going to shake out and i don't know of anyone who does.

Clearly nobody know what every team wants or needs, but you can put players into pretty clear classes that will pretty reliably give a clue as to where they'll go. That's why nobody talks about a player going four or five picks too early. They're comparable at that point. But for the most part we don't see players getting taken fifteen, twenty picks after everyone thinks they will.

#37 micnificent28

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 01:40 AM

Hopkins is the only one i d really care for in the second group if at all. I like jonathan but come on thats alil high. All of your players in the second group will be around in the 20s. Trade down!