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Top Dawg's annual If-Smitty-Goes-Down-We're-Fugged Post (with a twist)

Carolina Panthers

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#16 jtm

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 11:27 AM

If any team were to lose their best player, they would be in trouble. The Panthers are no different.

#17 panthers55

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 11:29 AM

Detroit will be screwed without Megatron. New Orleans will be screwed without Brees. Atlanta will be hurting without Julio Jones. And on and on. There are players on every team that are critical to their success and Smitty is one of those guys. Doesn't mean you have to find his replacement every year or even could if you tried. We have brought in a ton of players trying to find a number 2 since we found Smitty and few have worked out besides Moose. We will continue to try and find a number 1 to replace Smitty but honestly there were no receivers in this draft who could do that. Maybe I missed it but where was Julio Jones and A J Green in this draft. I didn't see any.

#18 top dawg

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 12:38 PM

If any team were to lose their best player, they would be in trouble. The Panthers are no different.

Detroit will be screwed without Megatron. New Orleans will be screwed without Brees. Atlanta will be hurting without Julio Jones. And on and on. There are players on every team that are critical to their success and Smitty is one of those guys. Doesn't mean you have to find his replacement every year or even could if you tried. We have brought in a ton of players trying to find a number 2 since we found Smitty and few have worked out besides Moose. We will continue to try and find a number 1 to replace Smitty but honestly there were no receivers in this draft who could do that. Maybe I missed it but where was Julio Jones and A J Green in this draft. I didn't see any.


That's easy enough to say, but it's not that simple. Some teams have proven depth, and it's expected for a team to essentially go to hell without their star QB. But, like I said, maybe the depth is there for us at WR. I really want to believe that.

#19 Jackofalltrades

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 12:58 PM

I didn't say the team would be better if Smith was lost, but developmentally I think it could help Cam.

He's forced quite a few passes to Smith when there were other options.

#20 OneBadCat

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 12:58 PM

The WR core is better than it was last year, we have that going for us. Each of the guys in the WR core have a skill that can compliment one another in this offense so it would make the loss of Smith maybe a little more bearable. You've got LaFell as your reliable 3rd down target, Hixon to work the middle and move the chains. Ginn that could hopefully be a serviceable deep threat. And the big question mark in the David Gettis who has/had the potential to do it all. Bryant isn't worth mentioning at this point.

Combined with Olsen. The RB's, and the occasional screens to Tolbert and now Kenjon Barner we should still be able to compete. Smith is still a huge help to this offense and it suck balls to lose him.

#21 DeAngelo's #1 Fan(CRA)

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:02 PM

The WR core is better than it was last year, we have that going for us. Each of the guys in the WR core have a skill that can compliment one another in this offense so it would make the loss of Smith maybe a little more bearable. You've got LaFell as your reliable 3rd down target, Hixon to work the middle and move the chains. Ginn that could hopefully be a serviceable deep threat. And the big question mark in the David Gettis who has/had the potential to do it all. Bryant isn't worth mentioning at this point.

Combined with Olsen. The RB's, and the occasional screens to Tolbert and now Kenjon Barner we should still be able to compete. Smith is still a huge help to this offense and it suck balls to lose him.


bottom of the depth chart you can argue is better. The guys who watch. Starters? I wouldn't agree w/ that.

#22 DeAngelo's #1 Fan(CRA)

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:17 PM

Detroit will be screwed without Megatron. New Orleans will be screwed without Brees. Atlanta will be hurting without Julio Jones. And on and on. There are players on every team that are critical to their success and Smitty is one of those guys. Doesn't mean you have to find his replacement every year or even could if you tried. We have brought in a ton of players trying to find a number 2 since we found Smitty and few have worked out besides Moose. We will continue to try and find a number 1 to replace Smitty but honestly there were no receivers in this draft who could do that. Maybe I missed it but where was Julio Jones and A J Green in this draft. I didn't see any.


Good teams add steady talent....

You add steady talent you can end up with Mike Wallace's, Steve Smith's, DeSean Jackson's, Greg Jennings'. I'm sure you didn't see any of them either.

and sometimes....AJ Green....is actually Braylon Edwards. Draft is always a gamble. With a young franchise QB....you are suppose to play the game and gamble for some talent.

#23 Newtcase

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:33 PM

Brandon LaFell is better than you're giving him credit for.

2012
Smitty caught 73 balls on 138 targets - 53% catch rate
LaFell caught 44 balls on 76 targets - 58% catch rate

Smitty averaged 16.1 yards per catch
LaFell averaged 15.4 yards per catch

Smitty had 17 catches over 20 yards - 23% of catches
LaFell had 13 catches over 20 yards - 29% of catches

Smitty had 4 TD on 73 catches - 5.49% TD rate
LaFell had 4 TD on 44 catches - 9% TD rate

Smitty had 268 YAC - 3.67 average YAC
LaFell had 312 YAC - 7.09 average YAC

Smitty converted 51 1st downs on 73 catches - 69% 1st down rate
LaFell convered 31 1st downs on 44 catches - 70% 1st down rate

LaFell catches more balls thrown his way, catches them deeper, converts to TD's more often, gains more YAC, and has virtually identical yard per catch and 1st down stats. If you ask me we just need to throw the ball to LaFell more often.

#24 rayzor

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:33 PM

so do we sit and wait for someone to show up in the draft like aj green or megatron and hope that we are in a position to draft him? btw...not going to happen really anywhere after the top 10, but whatever.

or do we actively try and anticipate his leaving and do our best to try and have someone that can be relied on?

i don't regret picking up the guys we did and i understand that gettleman upgraded the bottom of the WR corps by adding hixon and ginn, but we really need to be looking for someone that can step up when smitty is gone...and no one we get after the top 10 picks are going to be locks to do that. it may take time. it may take some trial and error. but sitting and waiting and hoping that we don't lose smitty anytime soon and that when that happens where ever we draft we happen to have a julio jones type just happen to fall into our laps is a bad strategy.

yes....you can lose any key player at any point in the game, so it's crazy to think you can be prepared for any of them and not get set back, but when you have a player that is likely to retire soon or likely to be hurt because of a history of it combined with playing harder than anyone combined with getting hit harder than anyone combined with his age...you prepare yourselves for it.

sorry some of you don't like that idea, but we don't help things by ignoring things like this.

#25 rayzor

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:36 PM

Good teams add steady talent....

You add steady talent you can end up with Mike Wallace's, Steve Smith's, DeSean Jackson's, Greg Jennings'. I'm sure you didn't see any of them either.

and sometimes....AJ Green....is actually Braylon Edwards. Draft is always a gamble. With a young franchise QB....you are suppose to play the game and gamble for some talent.

if this team continues to finish the way we did last year or even breaking even, we just aren't going to find those guys that are sure things to replace smitty, nor do you really expect to. what you do is you give your QB the best targets possible and you keep working at it to make sure he has those good options, never settling for ok. you find the best WR possible that is within reach and hope he fills that need when it rises. you don't sit back and hope a star falls into your lap...at least not again.

#26 Udogg

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:39 PM

I think they looked at DT prospects and WR prospects and liked what they saw at DT much better.

Without a doubt, we will take a WR early in next years draft. Hopefully one of the two big names fall to us, even if we have to trade up.



I'm sure someone will be available by the time the 32nd pick comes around :)

#27 rayzor

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:43 PM

I agree. It's wishful thinking born of homerism to think that losing Smitty would have some kind of silver lining.

i thnik it's also wishful thinking to think that we'd be ok or that there's really nothing that we could have done to make it not hurt quite so bad if/when he does get injured.

we had options. we didn't take them.

#28 rayzor

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:45 PM

I think they looked at DT prospects and WR prospects and liked what they saw at DT much better.

Without a doubt, we will take a WR early in next years draft. Hopefully one of the two big names fall to us, even if we have to trade up.

imo, waiting for something like that to happen is a mistake because the likeliness of that actually happening is minimal.

#29 poorboysrev

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 01:50 PM

Brandon LaFell is better than you're giving him credit for.

2012
Smitty caught 73 balls on 138 targets - 53% catch rate
LaFell caught 44 balls on 76 targets - 58% catch rate

Smitty averaged 16.1 yards per catch
LaFell averaged 15.4 yards per catch

Smitty had 17 catches over 20 yards - 23% of catches
LaFell had 13 catches over 20 yards - 29% of catches

Smitty had 4 TD on 73 catches - 5.49% TD rate
LaFell had 4 TD on 44 catches - 9% TD rate

Smitty had 268 YAC - 3.67 average YAC
LaFell had 312 YAC - 7.09 average YAC

Smitty converted 51 1st downs on 73 catches - 69% 1st down rate
LaFell convered 31 1st downs on 44 catches - 70% 1st down rate

LaFell catches more balls thrown his way, catches them deeper, converts to TD's more often, gains more YAC, and has virtually identical yard per catch and 1st down stats. If you ask me we just need to throw the ball to LaFell more often.



Steve Smith is drawing the top corner and double team for Lafell. This is one of the times that simple stats do not tell the whole story, you have to watch what''s happening on the field. Steve is able to make plays inspite of the attention he gets from the D, Lafell hasn't shown much to suggest he could do that. That said I just want us to be better in the redzone. Whether that's from running or throwing I don't care. We're good at moving the chains but we gotta score td's and finish drives.

#30 Newtcase

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 02:07 PM

Steve Smith is drawing the top corner and double team for Lafell. This is one of the times that simple stats do not tell the whole story, you have to watch what''s happening on the field. Steve is able to make plays inspite of the attention he gets from the D, Lafell hasn't shown much to suggest he could do that. That said I just want us to be better in the redzone. Whether that's from running or throwing I don't care. We're good at moving the chains but we gotta score td's and finish drives.


I'll start with the positive, yes Steve does and should draw the opposing teams top cover guy. No question Smitty is top dog and one of the finest receivers in the league over the last decade.

With that said, LaFell's job is to beat the defense he's facing and he has done that quite well. To say he doesn't make plays suggests to me that you may be blind. Youtube some Panther highlight videos and you will see LaFell all over the place making circus catches, breaking tackles, and doing much of the same impossible Smitty serves up. You can't say the kid can't play when all he's done is put stats that are superior in Smitty's in many ways against weaker coverage. I would expect his stats to drop when facing the top corner as Smitty does, how much, who knows? The fact is they could drop quite a bit and he would still be in Smitty's neigborhood stat wise. Another fact is LaFell does make plays when given the opportunity, go watch some game film or highlight reels to remind yourself of this please.



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