I dont know about all of that...
But I do think that its clear to anyone who is looking that our increasing intolerance of each others political views and inability to reach compromise are steadily leading us to a point where our government can not function in a meaningful way. The political brinksmanship and pandering to the extremes of any and all sides has rendered our leaders impotent to govern in anything remotely resembling a fair and just government.
It would take a lot more than anything we've experienced so far to convince the average American to put down their bag of cheese puffs, get off the couch, and risk their lives for either political party's core beliefs.
Yes, there is a lot of rhetoric being spewed by pundits on the airwaves, but the reality is there hasn't been much of a difference between the compassionate conservatives and socialist liberals ruling the land for the last several decades. The one constant throughout that time has been the rich getting richer and just about everyone else's standard of living stagnating or getting worse. Whatever the 1%ers can do to take the spotlight off that reality is a good thing. If that means dividing the remaining 99% against themselves by using propaganda, superstitious beliefs and bigotry, so be it.
The civil war only took place because the South's landed gentry and rich Northern industrialists couldn't compromise on economic policy any longer. The war was essentially a battle of the 1%ers. The average Southerner had little to gain and much to lose from conflict.
Future secessions would only be possible if a significant number of moneyed elite in our society decide it was in their best interests (highly unlikely). They would need to manipulate the general public into needlessly throwing away their relatively comfortable lives. Our average citizen may not be that smart, but I doubt they are that stupid (again).