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If you are interested, more statistical evidence that offense actually wasn't that big of an issue


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#1 teeray

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 11:43 AM

*
A WHOLE PIE!

Edit:  Most of these numbers are actually wrong because of an error on ESPN which I used for my data, but the error only improves the numbers in favor of my central point not against.  Basically scratch one possession from the Panthers and reduce their starting field position to 20.17 yard line

 

Somethings to consider when railing against this offense

 

We averaged over 30 yards per drive. (31.62).  That is actually higher than what Seattle gave up for the season last year (29.86) and is only slightly below what we averaged last season (33.82) which was good for top 10 in the league (9th).  That means that the expected yardage per drive when comparing the two teams is 31.84 YPDs (the average of our offense and their defense from a year ago)

 

We had an average starting field position on Sunday of our own the 24.25.  As compared to last season league averages that would have ranked us 31st in the NFL.  If a scoring zone is the opponent’s 33 yard line (50 yard field goal) we would have to outperform our drive expected averages by 9 yards above average or at approximately 125% of expected efficiency just to get a field goal.

 

So that shows us two things.  With that type of field position we were, on average, not going to get into scoring position.  And that field position would be most important factor to dictate scoring opportunities in this game by our offense.

 

It also shows that the offense performed on average about how it should be expected to perform considering past offensive play and Seattle's past defensive play.

 

When we fumbled the punt, and lost the field position game, we were put in a point where based off of our statistics we were going to have immense trouble putting ourselves in scoring positions.

 

This is context of a game that does not have anything to do with playcalling or aggressiveness.  It is just how the game played out.

 

When we lost field position, we put ourselves in a crippling position to not be successful or score many points.

 

Our field position for our last three possessions after the punt fumble was on average our own 16.67 yard line.

 

So that makes scoring opportunities even less likely.  In order to put ourselves in scoring position after the punt fumble  we would have had to perform at approximately 160% of expected efficiency.

 

That is just for FIELD GOALS.  Not even considering TDs.

 

This is why I have said, the fumble on the punt, although Seattle did not score any points off of it, was the play that cost us the game.  even more so than the Williams fumble at the end.

 

7 points is not a lot, and we had opportunities and messed them up.

 

In a game with only 8 possessions and 50 plays, these minor mistakes become glaring, and result in games where you only score 7 points.

 

The offense was not unusually conservative, nor did underperform, it played commensurate with what should have been expected based on the conditions of the game, and the opponent in which we played.

 

 

 

 



#2 CatMan72

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 11:47 AM

Good write up, thanks. 

 

So to sum it up, Josh Thomas and Armond Smith deserve to be cut immediately. 



#3 Argus Plexus

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 11:52 AM

Usually I say stats are for losers cause they are. But this is the most sensible usage of statistics on the huddle to date.

#4 Jmac

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:34 PM

Only thing is...seven points is seven points.Stats don't tell the whole story by any means.Great stats don't put the ball over the goal line, just that the ball should have been over the goal lime.

#5 Delhommey

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:36 PM

Yes we cut off our on legs, but look how well we played for being legless!

 

We had several chances to win the game. We took precisely none of them.



#6 Promethean Forerunner

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:36 PM

I'm not ready to crucify Shula yet. If we score 10 points against The Bills this upcoming Sunday, then we might have cause for concern.

#7 Who Said What?

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:40 PM

Good write up, thanks. 

 

So to sum it up, Josh Thomas and Armond Smith deserve to be cut immediately. 

 

At least Armond Smith needs to be cut.  Josh Thomas has another week.
 



#8 TylerVagyler

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:47 PM

2 huge drops on the first 2 drives, 3 moronic mistakes on 3 second half STs plays, and a fumble inside the 5 yard line.

 

These are things that should not happen on an NFL team and they cost us the game.



#9 Zod

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:48 PM

It's neat how many words it takes to make 7 points sound appetizing.

#10 MuMouey

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:48 PM

2 huge drops on the opening 2 drives, 3 moronic mistakes on 3 second half STs plays, and a fumble inside the 5 yard line.

 

These are things that should not happen on an NFL team and they cost us the game.

 

"NO DAT STUFF DONT MATTER! ITZ DA PLAY CALLIN!! WE ARE DA WORST!"



#11 ItsPantone278

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 01:08 PM

I thought we moved the ball fairly well. Just couldn't finish for foolish errors and mistakes.. These stats reflect that as it is just the truth.

If you were watching the game objectively the difference was simple... The playmaking ability of Russell Wilson. Mistakes aside, because both teams made mistakes, he made game winning plays. With that said we still could have and should have won. I am as positive as ever about our chances this season.

#12 Icege

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 01:10 PM

I feel like a small child that realizes that the new toy is the same as the old toy, but I'm not done pouting yet.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using CarolinaHuddle mobile app



#13 teeray

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 01:13 PM

It's neat how many words it takes to make 7 points sound appetizing.


It is just putting into perspective. The offense wasn't really an issue. The play calling wasn't an issue and perceived aggressiveness wasn't am issue.

It is just showing the context of a game from a statistical perspective.

If you lose field position against good defensive teams the probability if scoring is reduced. When possessions and snaps are down it magnifies small mistakes when you are already in a disadvantaged position.

Seattle scored 9 of their 12 points after the fumbled punt. It is not a coincidence. It works both ways.

#14 chef17

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 01:13 PM

None of that shows up on the scoreboard. The offense scored 7 points. That's an issue.



#15 natty

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 01:14 PM

God forbid we played this game in Seattle.  Then maybe scoring 3 points could have been an acceptable offensive performance.  




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