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Panthers still 35% to make the playoffs


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#1 Happy Panther

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 10:58 AM

http://www.footballo...ats/playoffodds

 

Higher than Tampa Bay and ATL. Seems off at first glance but there may be some logic to it. I have always enjoyed watching these stats. 

 

 

This is calculated by simulating out every remaining game as well as normalizing our previous games against the rest of the league. Best I can tell is that many of our remaining opponents are ranked very low in their software (NY, ARI, STL, OAK, SD, KC, MIA, NYJ, TB x2)

 

 

 

Football outsider has us with a "DAVE" of 9.6% which puts us as the 5th best team in that regard. The DAVE is some method of normalizing games on a play by play basis. Basically it says we actually did better than most of the league would have against the Bills. 

 

Maybe the computer hasn't met Rivera yet or maybe there is something to it.
 

 



#2 PhillyB

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:03 AM

*
A WHOLE PIE!

oh yeah well phillybfootballanalysis.com gives us a RON rating of 96.48% which puts our playoff chances at -14%



#3 stirs

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:05 AM

Traditionally, teams that start the seasons 0-2 have just over a 10% chance of making the playoffs



#4 TheJason

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:05 AM

We don't play the AFC West this year.



#5 Darth Biscuit

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:05 AM

 

 

 

Maybe the computer hasn't met Rivera yet or maybe there is something to it.
 

 

Do they have the models setup to stop analyzing games at 2 minutes left?

 

If that's the case... SUPER BOWL!!!



#6 jamos14

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:08 AM

I'll have some of what he's smoking.  



#7 Happy Panther

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:17 AM

Traditionally, teams that start the seasons 0-2 have just over a 10% chance of making the playoffs

 

just over 12% actually.

 

That is the point of this exercise. The 12%+ is merely a historical average but when you look at each team in isolation their chances should be different, perhaps much different, than the long term average.

 

If you are bored read this as to their methods. I find it fascinating.

 

http://www.footballo...fo/methods#dvoa

 

I think it would be interesting to set up fantasy football like this where points aren't awarded based on straight yards, but situationally.



#8 Happy Panther

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:20 AM

OK part of the issue is that the DAVE factor still includes preseason results. Statistically that may be reasonable but probably has us well overrated.



#9 AceBoogie

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:21 AM

Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game



#10 stirs

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:21 AM

So we have 3 times better chance of making the playoffs than the typical team?  I will read later when time permits.



#11 Pejorative Miscreant

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:21 AM

If we played ourselves for the next 14 weeks this stat would be realistic. 



#12 teeray

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:26 AM

I think both NY and KC are better than they are given credit for. If Eli gets his INTs under control, which he will the Giants are going to be fine.

KC is under the radar but they have looked decent, and clearly not as bad as last year.

#13 Happy Panther

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:34 AM

If you think about it, we almost beat a team that destroyed SF the next week and almost beat a team that almost be NE. And heck we are favored against NYG

 

So it makes sense that the simulation would view our average success on similar plays to the NFL as favorable so far in the year.

 

It doesn't have a coach factor though.



#14 SpeedOFLight

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:38 AM

This is pretty interesting. I think we can still make the playoffs. It's not like we are getting bullied. We haven't been playing all that great but we could easily by 2-0 minus a few mistakes. I'm curious to see how we fare against the giants. I am going to go out on a limb and say we will end the season at 10-6. :)



#15 CarolinaNCSU

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:59 AM

Somebody get Nate Silver on the phone and see what he thinks




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