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David Newton has still got Rivera's back on that 4th and 1

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Posted

It's ok he'll go for it when were 0-8 and out of the playoffs.

 

 

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Posted

Most coaches would make the same decision so firing Rivera would not likely be any different

And I am not defending Rivera as a coach, just that situation

Most coaches have a win loss record around .500 by the end of their career The real question is what would a good coach have done, unless of course you are fine with mediocrity

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Posted

Most coaches have a win loss record around .500 by the end of their career The real question is what would a good coach have done, unless of course you are fine with mediocrity

I think most good coaches probably would have done something similar to what we did.

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Posted

yes, but honestly lets think about this?

Who would've have thought regardless of the score that our Defense would give up a game winning touchdown to EJ Manuel and the Bills? Sometimes we have to give credit where credit is due

 

I would!!!

 

When your DC is having to Frankenstein a secondary together  how do you put them out there to stop a team who is going to be passing in a 2 min. offense??

 

Rookie or not he had already beat a healthy defense for 17 points.

 

 

Lastly Ron has had how many times to build confidence and show faith in his offense and young QB and chosen to not do it??

 

Instead he has put faith in a defense that has let him down over and over again.

 

He said all offseason and TC he had change and would be more aggressive. What happen to that??

 

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Posted

it's not a blitheringly stupid move to kick the field goal if your entire secondary hasn't been injured to hell at least once in the game, buuuuuuuuuut....

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Posted

I think most good coaches probably would have done something similar to what we did.

 

I don't think so - maybe in a vacuum just given the score etc... but I think that given this team, this situation... I don't think a good coach woulda done that.

 

of course maybe a good coach wouldn't have had us in that situation at all?

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Posted

Most coaches would make the same decision so firing Rivera would not likely be any different

And I am not defending Rivera as a coach, just that situation

We convert the first down 81% of the time when going for it when it's 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1. When it comes to protecting a 1 score lead on the final possession of the game we are 0-4. No way I can agree that it was the right decision.

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Posted

I think most good coaches probably would have done something similar to what we did.

 

I've seen The "Hood" and Sean Payton Makes gutsy calls all the time. That what makes some Coaches HC and other lifetime Cordinators.

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Posted

Like I said I the masses are going to flame me. :lol:

Look, if you can't stop a rookie QB from driving 80 yards in 90 seconds with no timeouts you don't deserve to win.

According to advanced NFL statistics even with three timeouts your win probability when being down 6 with 90 seconds starting at your own 20 is 14%.

Take into account a rookie QB I am sure that number would drop considerably.

So we have a non conversion rate of 19% or make them.drive for a TD that has a probability of 14%. If they need only a field goal if we don't make it then the probability of them getting a field goal is @24%.

Of course if we do make it we win 99% of the time.

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Posted

ok so what's the probability of winning when you don't convert on 4th and 1 and then the opponent has to drive 90 yards for a TD?

 

edit: anyone I doubt there are NFL statistics that are situational enough to tell us what the probability of a rookie quarterback versus our carolina panthers defense in those circumstances are.

 

you have to consider the units involved beyond just advanced metrics, anyhow.

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Posted

ok so what's the probability of winning when you don't convert on 4th and 1 and then the opponent has to drive 90 yards for a TD?

About the same, but they would need a field goal to tie which is about 24%

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Posted

About the same, but they would need a field goal to tie which is about 24%

 

so that 24% is the percentage of teams that get a field goal after an opponent fails to convert a 4th and 1 on the last drive of the game?

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