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Riverboat Rivera - ESPN article (by David Newton)



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#25 Panthro

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:54 PM

Full Tilt Rivera



#26 iamhubby1

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:56 AM

I think Rivera finally trusts his Offense to get him that yard. As long as he keeps that trust, he will probably keep calling aggressively. Rivera has learned that with this O, being aggressive is not automatically a bad call.

Going to be interesting to see how he wields his new found power. I like aggressive as much as the next guy. Hopefully Rivera's new found trust in the O will influence his thought process in regards to other areas.

Maybe Rivera has finally gone from being an "Err on the side of caution.", to "Throw caution to the wind." type of coach? The latter scares me, in that exciting kinda way, I tell ya what.

But you gotta love it. Criticized for his play calling on 4th down. Get 2 in the same drive. Another demon cast to the side. Keep casting out those demons boys. When finally do cast out all the demons, even we won't be able to stop us.

#27 Raleighcat83

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 06:18 PM

Brian Burke is not the only guy who has done a modern study, Football Oitsiders and Cold Hard Football Facts have also done extensive work on this, as has Nate Silver, and of course Paul Romer. And sure, defenses may play closer to the line on 4th down, although I think you're probably overstating the extent of that, but that will also leave them vulnerable to long runs if an offense goes for it on 4th down. After all, it's not as if defenses are employing a suboptimal strategy on 3rd down and then switching to an objectively better one on 4th, they're doing the best they can on every play. My guess is that offensises are more likely to take shots downfeild on 3rd down and they mostly just run up the middle (mostly, not always of course) on 4th. If thats the case its reasonable to expect that defenses adapt to hat by playing the run more aggressively. If they load the box totally, you throw. And sure, football is more than analysis. Football is lots of things! It's more than just throwing, more than just catching, more than just blocking or tackling or using timeouts well or using challenges well or making good 4th down decisions, it's all of those things and more. But to just continue to make objectively suboptimal decisions over and over because *handwave* momentum! tradition! trusting the defense! stat nerds don't understand football! *handwave* is pretty stupid. I think that's why you see the game slowly changing, why more and more NFL and major college teams are being aggressive in these situations, and where, for the first time, we're starting to see mainstream media criticism of the timid coaching decisions that don't work as well as the aggressive ones.