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Since everyone else is doing stats!


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#1 Leeroy Jenkins PhD

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:30 AM

I commonly use my own statistical formula to predict game scores for sports betting.  It has proven to be remarkably accurate and I almost don't want to share it, but here we go.

 

In order to determine the final score of the game I take each teams points scored against the opponent, and subtract it from the points scored on average for each opponent.  

 

The Panthers currently hold teams on average 7.575 points below their average for the season.  The 49ers currently hold teams 2.825 points below their average for the season.  If we subtract these scores from each teams average points scored for the season Panthers (25.5) and 49ers (27.3), we should have a relatively accurate prediction of the outcome.

 

Statistically we win this game 22.675 to 19.725

 

Sadly, the difference in the scores falls within 1SD (approx 7 points) of each other, so the prediction is pretty useless.  But, it does show that we are slightly favored.

 

 



#2 PhillyB

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:33 AM

where are the .675 points going to come from? i didn't know that was possible



#3 Leeroy Jenkins PhD

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:34 AM

I tend to round to the closest common football score.  In this case, 20-24 or so



#4 PhillyB

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:36 AM

what about the 49ers .725? is that like almost half of a safety or what



#5 MichaelNewtonII

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:37 AM

I commonly use my own statistical formula to predict game scores for sports betting. It has proven to be remarkably accurate and I almost don't want to share it, but here we go.

In order to determine the final score of the game I take each teams points scored against the opponent, and subtract it from the points scored on average for each opponent.

The Panthers currently hold teams on average 7.575 points below their average for the season. The 49ers currently hold teams 2.825 points below their average for the season. If we subtract these scores from each teams average points scored for the season Panthers (25.5) and 49ers (27.3), we should have a relatively accurate prediction of the outcome.

Statistically we win this game 22.675 to 19.725

Sadly, the difference in the scores falls within 1SD (approx 7 points) of each other, so the prediction is pretty useless. But, it does show that we are slightly favored.

nice how did u come up with tht formula

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#6 rayzor

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 10:40 AM

where are the .675 points going to come from? i didn't know that was possible

just the tip going in? 



#7 dos poptarts

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 11:50 AM

I commonly use my own statistical formula to predict game scores for sports betting.  It has proven to be remarkably accurate and I almost don't want to share it, but here we go.

 

The question is.....do we tell SanFran Parlay guy?



#8 Chaos

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 11:55 AM

just the tip going in? 

 

twss



#9 Happy Panther

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 12:15 PM

So have you retrotested and if so how has your model done?



#10 Leeroy Jenkins PhD

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 04:38 PM

nice how did u come up with tht formula

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The formula is the only way I can think to quantify a teams defensive capabilities while simultaneously factoring out strength of schedule.  It has its flaws.  For example, it doesn't take into account any human variables, weather, or even home field advantage.  it is strictly "this team scores this much on average, the target team (49ers + Panthers) held them to this."  It makes a ton of assumptions, but because it deals in averages over time, it becomes more accurate as the season progresses.

 

So have you retrotested and if so how has your model done?

 

The model works much better for teams that do not have high variance in the differential between Points Against Target and Points Against Season Average.  

The Panthers have differentials of (-13.8, 3, -17.6, 1.3, -13.3, -5.7, -2.5, -12)  This have a an average of -7.575 and a standard deviation of 7.67!  So if a team averages 27.3 points per game, 68% of the time, they will score between 11.83 and 27.4. scoring on average 19.725 points against the Panthers.   Because the standard deviation of 7.67 is so high, it leaves us with a wide margin of possibility being statistically possible.

 

Teams with a smaller variance like say the 49ers (-1, 3.2, 0.2, -9.7, -15.3, -0.7, 1.5, -0.8) with an average of -2.825 and a standard deviation of 6.3  meaning that the Panthers who score on average 25.5 points per game, would have a range of 16.375 to 28.975 (68% of the time) with an average of 22.675.  (They also have a HUGE outlier, there game against the Texans, but we shall save outlier detection and winsorized means for another time)

 

So Technically speaking, the game has a 68% chance that the scores fall

Panthers 16.375 - 28.975

49ers 11.83 - 27.4

 

Though that isn't a strong statement, it is extremely helpful in determining my bets for the weekend.  I only bet 2 or 3 games a week, and I am pretty solid. 



#11 Leeroy Jenkins PhD

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Posted 06 November 2013 - 04:53 PM

Vegas also set the over/under at 43.5 points to be scored in this game,

My numbers tell me 42.4 points will be scored, this would be way to close to actually bet.


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