There is still no guarantee we score a TD given we convert. If we don't get the fourth down we are 3-6 for sure.
But there are a 99% chance of Bengals marching on us to get their own field goal or TD. It happened all-game since the first quarter. Anyone could see that, except Rivera. The defense doesn't get BETTER in OT than it was in the 1st quarter magically. You do not kick the FG there. We just got lucky they missed theirs.