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iBBB

Member Since 12 Jan 2009
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Topics I've Started

Predict the Final Record! (Week 5 Edition)

Yesterday, 01:51 PM

It sure is a roller-coaster here. We go from expecting a season of almost no loses to feeling like we won't win another game.

 

So I thought of this weekly poll where WE would vote on what the team is looking to finish with, after each regular season game.

The poll result would somewhat resemble the general anticipation based on the product that this team left on the field last game.

 

A reply is not asked or required, just a simple vote. I'll create a weekly thread/poll each Wednesday when everyone's feels have settled after a Carolina Victory or a pathetic loss.

 

I think the overall result will be quite surprising.

 

My post week 1 prediction was 9-6, week 2 13-3, week 3 8-8, and now 7-9

 

Thanks!


All possible scenarios between CAR, SF, ARI. (32 exactly) UPDATED.

16 December 2013 - 11:46 AM

EDIT:

Even Better Odds !

I found a small error in Scenario 1 Case 2 (i didnt have us making playoffs if all three teams end up with 10-6 or 11-5 but we would)

10-6 record has us at 50.00%

11-5 record or 12-4 record, gives 100% to make the playoffs.

_________________________________________________

 

So I was bored this morning and figured out all possible scenarios between us, sanfran and arizona.

 

Before I give you the odds and percentages, let me explain how I got them.

Next week (week 16), there are 8 possible scenarios between the three teams.

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI loss

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR loss / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR win / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF win / ARI win

 

Then, for week 17, there are 4 more scenarios but I call them cases. 

The four cases are:

-CAR loss / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR win / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI win

keep in mind that SF plays ARI

 

With that in mind, each scenario of week 16 and 4 possible outcomes of week 17, gives us 32 possible scenarios.

 

Based on the tie-breaking between the three clubs, there are the following odds and percentages:

 

As of today:

CAR has 87.50% to make the playoffs

SF has 84.37% to make the playoffs

ARI has 28.12% to make the playoffs

 

With a W against the Saints week 16:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16:

CAR has 75.00% to make the playoffs

 

With a W against the Saints week 16 & a L against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16 & a L against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 50.00% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16 & a W against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

So you see, if we split next two games, we make the playoffs no matter what.

 

For any questions, study the attachements I provided.

 

I only have one question, how will we be seeded if all three clubs finish the season 11-5 ?

I have CAR, and SF advancing to playoffs in my report (because of the Conference Record), is that correct?

 

Thanks for reading!

 

Here is the spreadsheet in html format:

https://dl.dropboxus...8/Scenarios.htm

 

Here is the spreadsheet in xlsx format:

https://dl.dropboxus.../Scenarios.xlsx

 

Pictures:

Scenarios1.JPG

 

Scenarios2.JPG

 


Carolina Panthers. Up there with the big dawgs..

25 November 2013 - 09:46 AM

Would you have expected (when we were 1-3) that in late november we would be in the following conversation?

capture1125.JPG

 

I am very very proud of my panthers, way to learn how to win! 

 

Its very fascinating that they are aware of their mediocre performance and their are not giving up mid game. I do think they will tighten up the loose ends and play a much higher quality football here in the next weeks.

 

 

we are sitting at the 5th spot in the league, 1 game behind broncos, chiefs and saints. i did not think that was possible a few weeks ago.


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