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nagai

Member Since 16 Apr 2009
Offline Last Active Aug 11 2014 04:13 AM
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#2858544 Did we miss out on a diamond in the rough?

Posted by nagai on 20 July 2014 - 12:22 AM

maybe.....just like every team in the league does.

 

Exactly. Any team could play the 'we could've had player x at spot y' game. People's expectations of the draft aren't even realistic anymore -- it's like they expect franchise-defining drafts every year.




#2819439 Kelvin Benjamin Interview Video w/ SBNation

Posted by nagai on 14 June 2014 - 01:37 AM

his socks don't match

 

But they do! Stars and stripes!




#2796421 Manziel Not Impressing

Posted by nagai on 21 May 2014 - 09:12 PM

What is this Manziel kid, Gohan(DBZ) or something? People have to cause him pain in order to perform. This ain't a movie, dawg!

 

lol Nope. Manziel's known to be really competitive. It's not that he won't be competitive if they don't say anything, but I think it's fine to give him a little extra motivation. I think the huddle's really overreacting to what this GM has said. I think it's fine what he said.




#2791816 Is Corey "Philly" Brown our Victor Cruz

Posted by nagai on 18 May 2014 - 04:06 AM

Who knows, but I think it's unlikely. Those 20 pounds are significant.




#2771053 Dave Gettleman: You can't coach 6-5, 240.

Posted by nagai on 09 May 2014 - 04:58 AM

I wasn't a fan of kb, but hey, I trust gettleman. Big men wins games, I'm not surprised that size was a big factor in making the decision.


#2762744 Where are you watching draft on Thursday?

Posted by nagai on 05 May 2014 - 10:56 PM

In Australia with some great childhood friends! One of them gets married on Sunday!




#2762429 Mayock's top 100

Posted by nagai on 05 May 2014 - 06:52 PM

http://www.nfl.com/n...p-100-prospects




#2761635 Nagai's 1st Round Mock with Full Analyses of Every Pick

Posted by nagai on 05 May 2014 - 04:02 AM

Man, I've spent waaay too much time on this. Another year, another mock, another reason to go endlessly researching what different fans want on different team forums. It feels this creature's been growing inside me for months, and here's the baby.

 

1. Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney DE

 

Let's just keep it simple here – Clowney's a once in a lifetime sort of prospect.

 

2. Cleveland Browns from St. Louis Rams from Washington Redskins – Johnny Manziel QB

 

The Browns have quite a few picks, and I think they should have learned their lesson – if you want a franchise QB, don't just wait and grab one later. They've already made that mistake twice with Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden. No, if you're in love with a guy, be aggressive and grab him. If you've got a franchise QB, you've got a chance. If you don't... forget it. That's what I think Cleveland's thinking anyway.

 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Khalil Mack OLB

 

OK, so here's my logic: Gus Bradley's a defensive coach from Seattle, and the Seahawks just won a superbowl with defense, a running game, and just enough passing prowess to get by. I'm still tempted to give them Sammy Watkins, especially given Blackmon's situation, but at the end of the day, I think Bradley will stick with what's worked for them in Seattle.

 

4. St. Louis Rams from Cleveland Browns – Sammy Watkins WR

 

The Rams have a pretty sweet deal going here. By trading down to 4, they can still get either Robinson or Watkins (provided that the Browns take a QB with their original pick). I know they've signed Kenny Britt, but he's never had a year with over a thousand yards. At the same time, Fisher has also never drafted an OL in the first round. They've got a few picks now to cover all their holes, but they won't get another chance this year to pick at the top of the draft. With all this in mind, I think they should grab some firepower, some pazzaz, and just draft a RT in the second round.

 

5. Oakland Raiders – Greg Robinson OT

 

I don't think we have to overthink this pick. Robinson's the BPA (best player available) and Reggie McKenzie likes picking the BPA. Next!

 

6. Atlanta Falcons – Anthony Barr LB

 

The Falcons always seem to think that they're just one or two pieces away from a championship, and they try to fill those holes aggresively. Right now, their biggest needs are OLB and LT; so think about it, would they rather grab a tackle in the first round, and a pass rusher in the second, or the other way round? There aren't many good OLB's in this draft, but there are plenty of OT's. So at the end of the day, I think they'll grab Barr in the first, and wait for the second round for their lineman. Jake Matthews is still, obviously, a really attractive option.

 

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans WR

 

It doesn't matter who the QB's in Tampa are if they don't have enough weapons. Don't count out Matthews here either. This seems to be the consensus pick, even amongst Bucs fans.

 

8. Minnesota Vikings – Blake Bortles QB

 

I just think Bortles fits what Norv Turner would want in a QB. He's a big, athletic guy who will learn and frow in this offense. Don't completely rule out Teddy Bridgewater either. I know he has fallen, but in a lot of ways, Bridgewater would be a nice fit.

 

9. Buffalo Bills – Eric Ebron TE

 

I love the Bills on draft day, because they never really seem to care how others rank prospects, they just YOLO it and fill their biggest need, often reaching for it. Is it the best idea? Maybe not, but boy is it fun to watch. Priority number one right now in Buffalo is to surround EJ Manuel with talent. Ebron fits the bill.

 

10. Detroit Lions – Jake Matthews OT

 

I'm sure the Lions would love a WR to go alongside Megatron, but if Matthews falls to them, they are running to the podium. The Lions are a BPA team – remember how they picked Fairley even when they had Suh? Matthews is clearly the BPA here.

 

11. Tennessee Titans – Aaron Donald DT

 

I always take a look at different team forums and try and percieve whom the hot name is among different fan bases. Let me tell you Donald's name is SIZZLING hot. This guy is not going to drop very far if everything I've read is indicative of the NFL's excitement.

 

12. New York Giants – Taylor Lewan OT

 

The Giants are a BPA team and if you've been paying attention, it should be pretty obvious. This is the team that grabbed JPP and Kiwanuka in seperate drafts when they already had the best pass rush in pro football. Let's keep it simple here.

 

13. St. Louis RamsHasean Clinton-Dix S

 

The Rams need a safety, Seattle just won a superbowl with their DB's, and Ha Ha's a legitimate talent. Now all they need is a young OT to groom while they continue to evaluate Jake Long's health.

 

14. Chicago Bears – Calvin Pryor S

 

In my view, there are three positions that could be taken here – CB, S, or DT. Jernigan is still available, but I'm not sold on his explosiveness. Chicago's CB's are old, but not bad, and they can get a guy there in later rounds. S however has been an overlooked position in the windy city for a long time. I'm going with Pryor here.

 

15. Pittsburgh Steelers – Darqueze Dennard CB

 

Pittsburgh to me may be the most intruiging team in the first round. They have a mountain of needs and can pick from just about any position. It's a deep draft, so they may very well trade down, making a deal with Jim Harbaugh's 49ers right before his brother gets to pick. The reasons I didn't pull the trigger on this trade were threefold: 1) Kevin Colbert (the Steelers' GM) really believes that a rookie needs to be mentally mature for him to be successful, and this is (in his eyes) the most immature draft class in years. Would he really want to trade down to 30, just to roll the dice with guys like Hageman or Benjamin? Dennard has all the intagibles that you'd want in a player. 2) Dennard fits the Pittsburgh defense perfectly. 3) I think the 9ers can get a trade two picks later with the Cowboys, probably for a cheaper price. So yeah, Dennard goes to the steel city. Just as an aside, Dennard was another name I saw a lot of when I did my reasearch.

 

16. Baltimore Ravens – Justin Gilbert CB

 

I think this is a pretty perfect pick for Ozzie Newsome – Gilbert's one of the best players left on the board, it fills a big need, and he has that athelticism and production that all Ravens' first round picks seem to have.




#2757420 Shawn Merriman discusses opposing defenses playing Carolina...

Posted by nagai on 30 April 2014 - 07:31 PM

The segment was actually somewhat decent (it's on nfl.com). Just to be clear, the hosts didn't necessarily agree with Merriman.




#2745433 Scholarly research: Risk at Positions of Need (heavy reading)

Posted by nagai on 21 April 2014 - 01:55 AM

Good stuff, MHS! I think the best study there, for our purposes, is the first one. It's the most recent and has less, obvious methodological oversights that come with more complicated studies. That second study is old, so I took it with a grain of salt, but the findings are too shocking to overlook. Even if we tried update some of their information by propping up some of the better players to the 'big time performers' group, your hit rate for WR's is still only about 1/3. If only there were a better study that showed why certain WR's failed (lack of separation, bad hands, not athletic enough... etc.).




#2745356 NFL network path to the draft

Posted by nagai on 20 April 2014 - 10:23 PM

I get excited whenever they mention the Panthers, then I get reminded by just how little these guys know about individual teams. It's just gonna be talk about the O-line and WR's. I doubt they'll have any genuine insight.




#2745327 Jonathan Jones answers Panthers draft day questions

Posted by nagai on 20 April 2014 - 09:20 PM

One of the reasons BPA is a good strat is the sheer unpredictability of the draft. Let's say you didn't draft a WR didn't he first round (who happened to be BPA), because you thought there would be better value in the 2nd. First of all, whom will you be targeting? Mel Kiper may have 6 WR's or whatever with a 2nd round grade, but between scheme-fit and different red flags, only half of those guys would be on your draft board, realistically. So now, what happens when those 3 players are taken within the next 32 picks? And don't say that you know that these guys will still be there, cos you don't know anything. No one does on draft day. The only thing that's guaranteed on draft day is that there will be surprises. Now what? You've essentially cock-blocked yourself by getting too cute. And for what? I'm sold that Gettleman will stick by his word and pick the BPA on his board. Even if you don't agree with the strategy, I suggest you accept it. There's no point whining about how you think the Panthers should do things.

 

PS. Not every team picks the highest player on their board on draft day (to my horror). Last year, the Cowboys passed on Sharrif Floyd and took Travis Frederick instead. A few weeks later, someone on the internet took screenshots of draft day interviews with Jerry Jones, blew them up, and found their draft board in the background. They had Floyd rated as a high 1st round pick, and Frederick as a 2nd rounder. In the interviews themselves, Jerry said that Floyd was a great football player, but they felt that the move was something 'they had to do' -- which probably meant that they wanted to protect Tony Romo after giving him a massive contract.




#2740387 CBSSports.com's Panthers Draft Spotlight

Posted by nagai on 15 April 2014 - 08:25 PM

So the highest rated player they "recommend" for us is 36th on their own board.

 

And they expect us to use the 28th pick on him?

 

Or the 60th?

 

Doesn't make a lick of sense.

 

Most analysts don't know that Gettleman favours BPA. This is why I don't take a lot of these projections seriously -- they literally just try and match needs with their boards, without any considerations for scheme or drafting philosophy.
 




#2739282 According to PFT Panthers have interest in Sidney Rice

Posted by nagai on 14 April 2014 - 06:10 PM

Yeah, don't expect anything. He's filling up the holes to go straight into the draft with his BPA philosophy. DE, DT, WR, OG, CB, OT, OLB, and FS/SS are all at play here.

 

This is what I keep trying to tell the huddle. Ah well, if they don't listen, they don't listen.




#2730612 Panthers Sign Avant to 1 Year Deal

Posted by nagai on 07 April 2014 - 07:09 PM

I don't know how to feel about this. Beggars can't be choosers, but still. Why not wait until after the draft?

Because Gettleman's offseason strategy is to patch up positional needs the best he can with FA's, which sets you up to pick the BPA in the draft. It's the same strategy he used last year.






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