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Da Swerski

Member Since 25 Jun 2009
Offline Last Active Jun 30 2009 04:50 AM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: You start an NFL team today, who is your QB?

25 June 2009 - 05:52 AM

Carson Palmer. I think he's only 28.

He's 29 and turns 30 this December, and is coming off a season in which he played 4 games.

In Topic: You start an NFL team today, who is your QB?

25 June 2009 - 05:50 AM

Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers are pretty much the only real answers. Guess it would depend on the system you'd want to run. Then again maybe the correct answer is Kurt Warner. He'll play till he's 60.

In Topic: Busy day for Bears

25 June 2009 - 05:14 AM

Oddly enough I was linked to this thread from another message board. I expected to just read it, but I felt I had to put in my input. I see that last couple pages have shifted gear, but I'd still like to weigh in on Cutler.

First lets discuss the value of the Cutler deal. Because some guy (I think it was the Mr. Scott) seemed to imply that no one is worth that, but how much did the Bears give up really? Lets pretend instead of trading for Cutler they believed Stafford was the next big thing in this years draft, and wanted him. Though even at his current age Cutler would be the #1 pick in the draft.

Using the NFL's draft point system:


#1 overall pick: 3,000 points (Where Cutler would go in this draft)
#18 overall pick: 900 points (Bears 1st rounder)
#84 overall pick: 170 points (Bears 3rd rounder)

900 points + 170 points = 1,070 points

The Bears are now 1,930 points short of the 1st overall pick. The Bears would need the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 draft to make that up in the point system. Basically barring a horrible season, the Bears gave up less for Cutler then what it would take to get that 1st overall pick from the Lions. Which some thought the Lions would do a straight up trade for in Cutler.

Cutler as a player is better then people are saying. The only thing he's lacked is a defense. No QB can do well with a bad defense. The Bronco's defense gave up 28 points a game last year. Them giving up 30 was a common sight.

Record of QB's when their defense allows 30 points or more
Tom Brady: 5-8
Jim Kelly: 10-20
Peyton Manning: 9-25
Joe Montana: 6-17
Kurt Warner: 6-22
Jay Cutler: 3-13
Steve Young: 4-19
Ben Roethlisberger: 2-10
Brett Favre: 8-42
Terry Bradshaw: 4-21
Donovan McNabb: 3-16
John Elway: 7-41
Dan Marino: 7-52
Philip Rivers: 1-8
Jake Plummer: 4-37 (0-10 with the Broncos)
Troy Aikman: 2-20
Ron Jaworski: 1-14
Eli Manning: 1-16
Jeff George: 1-40
Matt Cassel: 0-4
Phil Simms: 0-20

Cutler ranked seventh among regular NFL starters last season with a 94.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter. Which is pretty impressive given that by then the Bronco's were usually behind. That's when QB's usually fall apart and throw INT's trying to win a game. Instead Cutler actually improved his TD to INT ratio in the 4th quarter. Go look at his splits. When the game was on the line, Cutler was at his best.

The Broncos Defense was ranked 31st in total Yards allowed, 31st in yards allowed per drive, 31st in points allowed per drive, 32nd in Turnovers per drive. By Comparison, the 32nd ranked defense was 0-16, and the 30th Ranked defense was 2-14. Again having a franchise QB allowed the Bronco's to even sniff the playoffs when other teams were looking for the 1st pick.

Check out what Football Outsiders had to say about Cutler. They are basically the saber guys of Football.

Based on Football Outsiders' advanced defense-adjusted yards above replacement stats (explained here), Cutler was one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL last season. He holds very little if any blame for Denver's 8-8 record and late-season collapse. Cutler was the only full-time starting quarterback who didn't have a single game below replacement level in 2008. Denver was losing games because its defense was horrible. Our DVOA ratings go back to 1994, and over the past 15 seasons, the only defense to play worse belonged to the 2008 Lions.

In case you're wondering what this means exactly. Here's the explanation:

Primary Stats

DVOA: The main statistic used by Football Outsiders, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), breaks down the entire season play by play, comparing the success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables, including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter and opponent quality.

While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, etc. It can also be used to analyze specific players.

For more on how DVOA is computed, read the explanation at http://www.footballo...com/methods.php FootballOutsiders.com. You can find current total DVOA ratings for 2008 on this page.

DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Our metric which takes a player's performance, adjusted for situation and opponent in the manner of DVOA, and then translates it into the approximate number of actual yards that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a generic bench scrub (also called a "replacement player.") This statistic will increase the rating for players who have a high usage, even if their performance is average, demonstrating the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players.

DYAR stats for 2008 are listed on FootballOutsiders.com for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Basically Cutler's career has yet to be defined, but he's off to a fantastic start.

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