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Erik Stall

Member Since 27 Dec 2010
Offline Last Active Aug 29 2011 05:44 PM

#946023 Correct me if I am wrong...

Posted by Erik Stall on 28 December 2010 - 01:29 PM

I don't know where you got your numbers but they are wrong.

Again, I'm not saying you have to be top 12 in both categories to make the playoffs but the really good teams are good at both of those things (with few exceptions).

You just pointed out that 50% of the teams are in the playoffs with top 10 run games and 80% are in contention. You also pointed out 50% of teams have clinched in the top 10 at run stopping and 60% are in contention (in reality SF and Houston shouldn't count because they only have good numbers due to terrible pass defenses 24 and 32 respectively).

For comparision, top 10 passing offenses:

1. Indy - In contention
2. NO - Clinched
3. SD - Eliminated
4. Dallas - Eliminated
5 GB - In contention
6. Houston - Eliminated
7. Denver - Eliminated
8. Philly - Clinched
9. NYG - In contention
10. Wash - Eliminated

Only 20% of the top 10 has clinched and only 50% is in contention.

What would you take, 50% clinched and 80% contention or 20% clinched and 50% contention?

I got my numbers from NFL.com. I clicked on "stats" and sorted by team total rushing yards. That doesn't include the Philadelphia/Minnesota game, but that will just further my point. Minnesota is sitting 85 yards behind Atlanta for #10 in rushing offense. Neither team should fall out in rush defense.

And why shouldn't SF and Houston not count just because they can't stop the pass? SF is #2 in yards per attempt and Houston is #7. You don't get to cherry pick stats just because they don't fit your argument.

And you totally missed my point about the QBs. Like I said, they may not put up numbers but they know how to not screw up. Guys like Kyle Orton can put up numbers but no one will ever accuse him of being a good QB.

Recent stats probably will show that you don't have to be top ten in just ONE category, but rather at least in the top half of the league at both running the ball and passing the ball on offense and likewise good at stoping both on defense, good at special teams, and have a low turnover ratio.

Therefore one can surmise that you would need both a good QB AND a good running game on offense. Since we have a good running game, it just makes sense to get a QB who can actually throw the ball farther than three yards like Clausen.

But I think you hit the nail on the head here.

#945877 Correct me if I am wrong...

Posted by Erik Stall on 28 December 2010 - 12:36 PM

You are just looking at name value alone and not production. I didn't say you need an elite runner but rather a run game. If you want to name your top 5 or so QBs in the league (without any order) it would look something like this:

Brady: The exception
Manning: Battling for a playoff spot despite his greatness
Brees: Just clinched playoff spot through spotty performance whole season but finally run game and run stopping showed up
Rivers: Missed playoffs despite being MVP candidate
Rodgers: Also battling for a playoff spot
Vick: Clinched division

1/3 of the top QBs in this league, legit elite QBs in this league, have clinched a playoff spot.

You can run through all the others and the common theme is they run the ball effectively and they stop the run. If they can't do that you've seen what happens.

The Colts, Packers and Chargers have all been decimated by injuries this year. Those QBs have basically worked alone, and Rodgers has missed almost 2 games (both losses).

Top 10 NFL Rushing offenses:

1. Kansas City - Clinched
2. Oakland - Eliminated
3. Jacksonville - Out
4. NY Giants - Out
5. NY Jets - Clinched
6. Philadelphia - Clinched
7. Tampa - Out
8. Pittsburgh - Clinched
9. Houston - Eliminated
10. Atlanta - Clinched

Only 5 who have clinched anything and 3 of the top 4 are currently sitting outside the playoff picture.

Top rushing defenses:

1. Pittsburgh - Clinched
2. Chargers - Eliminated
3. Chicago - Clinched
4. Baltimore - Clinched
5. NY Jets - Clinched
6. Miami - Eliminated
7. Minnesota - Eliminated
8. Philadelphia - Clinched
9. Houston - Eliminated
10. San Francisco - Eliminated

Again only 5 of the top 10 have clinched anything. I see no correlation between being able to run/stop the run and success.

I named those guys because they're the best QBs. The best QBs don't always put up the best stats (See Orton, Kyle) but they lead their teams to the playoffs. Hence the need for a guy like Luck.

#945810 Correct me if I am wrong...

Posted by Erik Stall on 28 December 2010 - 12:06 PM

I have to disagree again. There is only one team that is dominating based on the pass alone with a few .500ish teams mixed in. To win in this league you must be able to run the ball and stop the run.

ATL got exposed last night when Turner got shut down. NO got beat bad the week before when they couldn't run the ball. Steelers run the ball and stop the run. KC runs the ball and stops the run.

You can believe in Manning, Rivers, Green Bay, Houston all you want but not one of those teams is in the playoffs yet.

QBs that can air it out will often times get you on SportsCenter but the ones that win championships have great defenses and run games behind them.

Again, look at the QBs in the playoffs: Brady, Roethlisberger, Cassel, Manning, Flacco, Sanchez, Ryan, Cutler, Vick, Bradford, Brees, Rodgers. Now look at who they've got running the ball: Green-Ellis, Mendenhall, Charles, Addai, Rice, Green/Tomlinson, Turner, Forte, McCoy, Jackson, Thomas, Brandon Jackson. Yeah, you need to be able to run the ball but most of these teams don't have an elite runner, but they almost all have top QBs. In fact, if you flipped Schaub and Rivers for Flacco and Sanchez I'd say those are the top 12 QBs in the league. Can't say the same about those RBs.

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