Your ranking in the top 25 doesn't guarantee that you get the access bowl spot. It is determined by a committee. I'm pretty sure they're not just going to look at the coaches and AP polls and choose from that alone.
Phil Steele predicts an undefeated Marshall in over a 1 loss ECU. Not that that means anything, I only point it out because there is no way an undefeated Marshall outranks ECU in the polls if ECU doesn't lose another game.
Marshall probably has 3-4 bowl teams left on the schedule. They'll all be in poo bowls, but MT will almost certainly be a bowl game. FIU and UAB have actually looked decent this year and already have 3 wins. ODU has 3 as well with 3 winnable games left on the schedule. WKU could possibly make a bowl, but they'll have a tougher time of it with 4 more wins needed.
I left VT off because while they're not bad, they're not as good as everyone thought after they beat OSU. They have an easy schedule left though, so I'm sure they'll end up with 8 or 9 wins, but they're not top 25 good.
If Marshall gets in over ECU, they'll change scheduling philosophies in G5 conferences. Everyone will race to schedule the easiest games possible to better their chances of going undefeated.
Wasn't talking about the AP or the Coaches Poll, I was talking about the Committee Poll, which is released I believe for the first time next week
Leaving VT who you claim to be a potential 8-9 win team out because they aren't as good as people thought they were while including UNC not being good makes this conversation null and void. The VT win is the sole reason, in my opinion, that ECU has a leg up on Marshall. I also believe that UNC will be a 6-6 bowl team. That's 2 more things than Marshall has.
You and i both know that if ECU doesn't lose another game, the committee will continue to vote them higher than Marshall. If at the end of the season they are ranked higher by the committee, they will gain the access boll nod.