D-Will's 2009 production to drop?

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

Originally Posted by number28

your post brings up another possible knock as to why fantasy players are hesitant to pick williams too high in a draft.

are his stats padded?

williams is a playmaker no doubt, but one run can mask an otherwise poor performance.

the second half of last season williams ran against some of the worst run defenses in the league right when the o-line got healthy and starting to gel.

in the first half, he was only average. the defenses were a little tougher and the o-line was beat up. even though the o-line backups were starter quality, he still couldn't excel. his only 2 notable games being kansas city and arizona. kansas city is in shambles, and williams is making a habit of running over the cardinals like foster did the falcons.

not much to brag about.

Just to point out, Arizona had the number five rush defense in the league when the year was said and done. New York was ranked number three in the same catagory. Even in the New York loss, DWill still produced in the regular season. The only reason I qualify it that way is because the run game was abandoned for some reason in the playoff game.

[Mintal]

Originally Posted by King Taharqa

Teams will be paying close attention to #34 next season. If he posts better #'s than he did last year he will solidify himself as the best back in the league. It will be hard to even duplicate what he did last season. Look at #89 in 05. He had a nice year in 06, but it didnt match up to 05 because teams really focused on him and understood how big a threat he was after his triple crown year. I think the same is gonna happen to #34 this year. Teams are gonna really focus on shutting down our running game and beating us on 1st and 2nd down. We need to be prepared for that and make them pay with the passing game.

Well now there is the first credible argument, thanks KT. That makes sense, a lot of sense. Jarrett, get your ass in gear...

[number28]

these are good examples of inflated stats...

Originally Posted by ItsNotGonnaBeAlright

Just to point out, Arizona had the number five rush defense in the league when the year was said and done.

and it showed in the playoffs.

williams averaged 2.9ypc without his 31yd run.

over half his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.

New York was ranked number three in the same catagory. Even in the New York loss, DWill still produced in the regular season.

the same thing here.

outside of his 30yd TD run, williams averaged 3.4ypc.

more than half of his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

Originally Posted by number28

these are good examples of inflated stats...



and it showed in the playoffs.

williams averaged 2.9ypc without his 31yd run.

over half his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.



the same thing here.

outside of his 30yd TD run, williams averaged 3.4ypc.

more than half of his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.

You could make this arguement for any player in the league though. "Without your big plays, your just average".

[Mintal]

Originally Posted by number28

these are good examples of inflated stats...



and it showed in the playoffs.

williams averaged 2.9ypc without his 31yd run.

over half his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.



the same thing here.

outside of his 30yd TD run, williams averaged 3.4ypc.

more than half of his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.

You can't throw out the stats you don't like to make your point, it doesn't work that way. Those 50 60 yard runs, yes they count to. Just sayin'...

[Cat Fanboy]

I realize I am super homer...but honestly? Our offense was huge last year so it's easy to say it will drop off. Crazy talk I say. Its going to get even nastier.

1. So you say teams will 'focus' on 34/running game more? Fine..load the box and watch Smith burn em. I dont think even if they DO load the box they can stop our Oline.

2. Health? Serious - because we had bug in past we think its going to be there in the future? Thats no reason...cant speculate that way. You can say our backup Oline isnt where we want it and yeah, its a concern but our 'A team' is not only going in solid (I hope Jstew is fine and there is no spin)...but better than last year. Jake having another year is going to be huge.

3. Our defense should be better. The turd is gone. Connor is back, Beason is going to go off, we got the rookie. With a better D our O will have better position.

4. As much as I think the season will continue like last year - I think Jstew is going to have a REALLY good year. Yeah, this is speculation but I just know hes going to run like a cat on crack and destroy defenses.

[panthers55]

Originally Posted by King Taharqa

Teams will be paying close attention to #34 next season. If he posts better #'s than he did last year he will solidify himself as the best back in the league. It will be hard to even duplicate what he did last season. Look at #89 in 05. He had a nice year in 06, but it didnt match up to 05 because teams really focused on him and understood how big a threat he was after his triple crown year. I think the same is gonna happen to #34 this year. Teams are gonna really focus on shutting down our running game and beating us on 1st and 2nd down. We need to be prepared for that and make them pay with the passing game.

06 numbers for Smith are lower because he was out the first 2 games with a hamstring injury and Jake missed 3 games and Weinke didn't throw to him. His yards per reception went from 15.2 to 14 yards which is not significant. If you take out the Weinke disasters his yards per game average was the same and he score 8 TDs in essentially 11 games with Jake. That matches up pretty well with the 12 TDs in 16 games in 2005.

Don't agree with your premise. I agree with lower numbers obviously but not with the reason. I do agree that teams will focus on stopping the run game and load the box. Hopefully Davidson will use the passing game to open up the run.

[X-Clown]

Originally Posted by number28

these are good examples of inflated stats...



and it showed in the playoffs.

williams averaged 2.9ypc without his 31yd run.

over half his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.



the same thing here.

outside of his 30yd TD run, williams averaged 3.4ypc.

more than half of his attempts were for 1-2 yards, no gain, or losses.

So only the ones that you are cherry picking count?

[mountainpantherfan]

LOL. Weren't the Bucs focusing on stopping the run game in the MNF game?

The Bucs were ranked in the top 5 in run d before that game. They ended the season ranked in the 20's. The Panther run game caused many of those bad run d's by the numbers to be that way.

Some people can use stats all they want but when I look at that o-line, the fullbacks and Williams and Stewart I don't see that many defenses that can stop that rush attach.

[pantherclaw]

Could his production improve? Sure, he has the talent to do so. But realistically, for his production to improve, our other backs, (mostly Stewart, but not just him) would have to end up missing some major time.
Stewart will continue to improve. As long as our line stays healthy, and plays well, they both have the potential to improve, but how much, can be argued until we are blue in the face.