Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
KICKOFF: Sunday, 1:00 ET
SURFACE: Sportexe Momentum
TV: FOX
PREDICTION: Ravens 21-17
SERIES: 3rd meeting. Panthers lead series 2-0. The Panthers have defeated the Ravens twice before, both of those wins coming in Charlotte. This is the first time the two teams will meet in Baltimore for a regular season game.
2006 RANKINGS: Panthers: offense 23rd (12th rush, 25th pass); defense 18th (21st rush, 16th pass). Ravens: offense 29th (24th rush, 28th pass); defense 2nd (3rd rush, 3rd pass)
KEYS TO THE GAME: If the Panthers' offense doesn't find a way to be more efficient, it will have an extremely difficult time scoring points against the league's No. 2 defense. Carolina has converted a league-low 18.6 percent of its third-down conversions, and will be without injured backup RB DeAngelo Williams. With the Ravens being hard to run against with any consistency, expect plenty of short passes from Carolina with the hope someone can make a big play after the catch. Ravens QB Steve McNair still doesn't look comfortable in his new offense and has thrown five interceptions in his past two games. However, the onus will be on his shoulders against one of the league's better defensive lines. Baltimore has struggled to establish the running game with RB Jamal Lewis, and coach Brian Billick hinted Musa Smith and/or Mike Anderson could receive significant carries should one get hot during a game.
FAST FACTS: Panthers: Are 7-2 in past nine games decided by eight points or less. ... Are 6-0 all-time when RB DeShaun Foster rushes for at least 100 yards. Ravens: Are 8-2 in their past 10 home games. ... McNair is 22-9 (.710) against the NFC.
PERSONNEL NEWS
Panthers:
--FB Brad Hoover (hamstring) was upgraded to probable on Thursday and is expected to play Sunday against the Ravens. Hoover was limited to 15 plays last week and missed practice Wednesday. He is making good progress, and the Panthers will need him this week against a physical defense. --Still too tough to call whether C Justin Hartwig (groin) will start this week or if the Panthers will stick with Geoff Hangartner. In one sense, the offensive line is playing better and developing some cohesiveness, so the Panthers may want to stay with Hangartner. On the other hand, Hartwig is supposedly a better player, a guy the Panthers gave big bucks to in the offseason, so they will want to get him back in the lineup as soon as possible. An interesting decision is coming. --SS Shaun Williams (foot) is probably going to play this week, although he may not start. --OLB Thomas Davis did not practice Thursday due to an illness, but he's expected to recover in time to play Sunday. He was added to the injury report Thursday as probable. --RB DeAngelo Williams is out for this week's game with a sprained ankle. --WR Steve Smith is looking to bounce back from a three-drop performance last week against the Browns but will face tough coverage from Baltimore's Chris McAlister. --The Panthers are 6-0 when Chris Draft starts at middle linebacker, including 3-0 this season.
Ravens:
--DE Terrell Suggs did not practice Thursday, but it's not a major occurrence. He has practiced sporadically the past two weeks and still played well in games. He remains questionable with a hamstring injury. --TE Todd Heap is questionable with ankle and leg injuries. He said it has limited him practice but has not affected how he plays in games. --CB Corey Ivy was released from a Pittsburgh hospital after suffering a kidney tear. It is unknown whether he will play again this season. He will be replaced by Evan Oglesby at nickel back. --CB Evan Oglesby will play a major role in the Ravens defense, taking over for injured Corey Ivy at nickel back. He will likely line up against Drew Carter, the Panthers' third-leading receiver. --LB Gary Stills was added to the injury report as questionable with an abdominal injury after not practicing Thursday. He is a major part of Baltimore's special teams.
INSIDE THE CAMPS
Panthers: Panthers defensive tackle Ma'ake Kemoeatu returns this week to Baltimore, where he played for four seasons prior to signing a five-year, $23 million deal with Carolina. Kemoeatu is part of a run defense that has allowed just 71.1 yards per game on the ground the past three weeks after giving up an average of 196 the first two games. He's also been taking up blockers inside, freeing up defensive end Julius Peppers to make more plays. Peppers has six sacks. "Yeah, I try to do my best, hanging in there, take double teams," Kemoeatu said. "That's what they brought me in here for, see if I can take up blocks and free up people every now and then. Things are going well for me. The locker room atmosphere has been great. I enjoy being around these guys every day. It's been fun." Kemoeatu anticipates this will be a low-scoring game. "It's going to be a defensive game," he said. "Baltimore's got a great defense. We've got a good defense. It will be a defensive game out there. It'll be like Denver (against Baltimore) last week. Denver's defense came out and played hard and kept the pressure on Steve McNair. We've got to do the same thing."
Ravens: Struggling running back Jamal Lewis seems indifferent about the possibility of sharing the ball Sunday against the Panthers. Last season, Lewis complained on a frequent basis about his diminishing workload. But this week, he did not fight the idea of reduced carries. Dividing up the carries in a crowded backfield has become an increasingly hot topic for the Ravens (4-1) after Lewis continued to struggled in the team's 13-3 loss in Denver and his backups -- Mike Anderson and Musa Smith -- looked much sharper. Asked about the possibility of splitting carries, Lewis said Thursday, "It's all right with me, but it's hard really to get into a good tempo. But hey, it is what it is. I'm not the one to make that call. We just have to try to get it done." In his past two games, Lewis has averaged 2.6 yards a carry. His longest run during that span has been 8 yards. Meanwhile, Anderson had 31 yards on five carries (6.2-yard average) against Denver, and Smith has 28 yards on five carries (5.6) the past two games. Ravens coach Brian Billick said he has no preference who is running the ball just as long as the rushing yards increase. "We need to run the ball better," Billick said. "If we can (run) the ball up to 35 times a game, we'll be in good shape. I've said it a number of times -- and I don't mean to be insensitive -- I don't give a flip on who carries it as long as we get the productivity and as long as we get the number of runs out of the running game." With the running game failing to click, the rushing attempts have been limited. Although Lewis has accounted for 88 of the 119 carries by Ravens running backs, he has only received more than 20 carries once this season. Lewis chalked up the lack of success the past two weeks to playing tough defenses (San Diego and Denver). "I'm pretty much confident in the offensive line," he said. "We are doing things from the coaching staff on down to the players as far as trying to get this thing worked out and to find out what's the problem." Anderson, who had to play in a running-back-by-committee situation when he was with the Broncos, said he is not frustrated by his current role. "The best thing that you can do as a player is -- which is the process that I take and have been taking for years -- one day at a time, one week at a time and let the chips fall where they may," said Anderson, who led the Broncos in rushing last season. Asked if he had any regrets about signing with the Ravens this offseason, Anderson said, "I would never do anything like that. You can't be like that. You can't be a guy who is a shoulda, woulda, coulda."
Analysis: The Ravens this year haven't been much of an offensive team. Jamal Lewis is not there yet, Steve McNair can put a drive together from time to time but he hasn't been consistent throughout a game. So they can look at the offense and say that they have to make some plays, he has to run the ball to make some plays and he has to make some gains in the passing game, but someone has to do a lot better job in the running game than they have been doing. But having said that the Baltimore Ravens are defense. They win their games with defense, by stopping offenses, getting field position for their offense and forcing turnovers.
If they are going to rely on their offense to win games they aren't going to win many games.
The thing that Steve Smith brings this week for the Carolina Panthers is that passing threat and that will not allow the Ravens to show that eight-man front to stop the run. I have watched them the last couple of weeks and especially against the San Diego Chargers they used a lot of sets with five defensive lineman, three linebackers and three defensive backs.
They were just daring you to pass the ball and they would stop the run because they gang up on it and the teams they played the last two weeks in San Diego and Denver, revolve everything is around the run.
If you are a running team against the Ravens you are going to get five defensive lineman, you're going to get an eight-man front and they are going to say you are not going to run against us. They are going to make the quarterback beat them.
I don't think you can use an eight-man front against a team with a Steve Smith, you better keep someone else back there other than a corner. So now if they do that they can't use that front and they have to use a seven-man front and with that you may see more running against this Ravens defense than we have seen.
Madden's Prediction and Analysis
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