comp picks

[sweetcaroline4056]

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded seems to be the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract values used in the equation seemingly do not include things such as workout bonuses and incentives. (Also, keep in mind that the contract figures reported in the media often are incorrect.) And the playing time used in the equation seemingly is the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps played.

A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this – for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value would bring a third-round comp pick and another qualifying player whose value would bring a sixth-round comp pick but signs a qualifying player whose value would be in the range for a third-round pick. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value was equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 12 of these “net value” type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all 12 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value. This year, I’m projecting that Atlanta will receive a net-value comp after losing three qualifying players (Patrick Kerney, Ashley Lelie and Justin Griffith) and signing three qualifying players (Ovie Mughelli, Lewis Sanders and Marcus Wilkins). The combined values of the players Atlanta lost was more than twice as much as the combined values of the players it signed.

For the first time, I’ve used a mathematical formula to weight the three factors that determine a player’s value in the comp equation (his contract, his playing time and his postseason awards). Using this formula, I was able to reconstruct the exact order of the comp picks that had been awarded in 2006 and 2007. I don’t know if I have the factors weighted correctly, but I’m sure it’s more accurate than simply taking educated guesses to determine player’s values, as I always had done in the past. If I can get the order of the picks correct for whichever picks I have in the correct round or off by one, then that would suggest that I have the weights about right.

As always, please note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula. I don’t pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 22 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value must be above a specific minimum amount (or, possibly, have incentives in his contract that would put him above the minimum); and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

The most difficult part about projecting the comp picks is determining all of the cutoff points – the minimum value needed to qualify and the value ranges for the comp picks in each round of the draft. The comp picks awarded in previous years suggest that the cutoff points increase each year by a small percentage – approximately the same percentage by which the leaguewide salary cap increases. From 2006 to 2007, the cap went up 6.99 percent, so I used a 7 percent increase when estimating the cutoff points for this year’s comp picks.

Last year, the lowest-paid players who are known to have qualified for the NFL’s comp equation signed for $750,000 per season and saw significant playing time. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Kevin McCadam, who signed for $765,000 but played only on special teams. Several players who signed for $750,000 but did not see significant playing time also did not qualify. This year, I have three players whom I consider “on the bubble” for qualifying – Chris Liewinski, Mike Doss and Marcus Wilkins. For various reasons, I’m projecting that all three players will qualify. Using my weighting formula, despite signing the smallest contract ($740,000 per year) of the three bubble players, Liewinski has the highest value of the three because he had by far the most playing time of the three. His value using my mathematical formula is more than 7 percent higher than the values of the lowest-valued players known to have qualified last year, which is why I’m projecting that Liewinski will qualify this year. Doss signed for $900,000 per season but saw very little playing time except on special teams. If he does not qualify, which is possible, he’d be by far the highest-paid player ever not to qualify. Wilkins signed for less than Doss (Wilkins signed for $816,667 per year) and played even less than Doss, but his three-year contract included escalator clauses that could raise his base salaries in the final two years of the deal. Last year, a player with a similar contract and playing time (Jamie Winborn) qualified for the equation despite having a lower value in the formula than a player who did not qualify. I’m guessing it was because of his escalator clause, which is why I’m projecting that Wilkins will qualify, too. But I could be wrong on both counts.

There are seven players this year who were close to being on the bubble but seem to be above it – Kawika Mitchell, Montrae Holland, Jeff Zgonina, Todd Johnson, Andre Davis, Kenny Wright and Vinny Ciurciu (listed from highest value to lowest value). I’m fairly confident that all of them will qualify, although Ciurciu might not. There are four players who I’m pretty sure fell just below the bubble (again, listed from highest value to lowest value) – Cameron Worrell, Paul Smith, David Macklin and Jason Whittle. Their values using the formula were lower than the values of several players who did not qualify last year, so unless I made a mistake somewhere, none of them should qualify this year. Worrell and Smith would be the most likely to qualify, if any of them do.

Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.05 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.45 million to $5.3 million, the fifth-round comp players had signed for $3.5 million to $4.8 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $1.96 million to $2.6 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for $1.417 million or less per season. Note that the upper range for seventh-rounders could misleading because none of last year’s comp picks were for players who signed for between $1.417 million and $1.96 million. And there was an overlap for the fourth- and fifth-round values because of differences in playing time. After reconstructing the NFL’s comp equation for 2007 using my new formula, I was able to narrow down some of last year’s cutoff points by using players who qualified for the equation but did not have a comp pick awarded for them. The value range (based solely on contract size) for fifth-rounders became $3.2 million (down from $3.5 million) to $4.8 million, for sixth-rounders became $1.96 million to $3.2 million (up from $2.6 million) and for seventh-rounders became $2.025 million or less (up from $1.417 million or less). Again, there is an overlap because of differences in playing time. You’ll notice this year’s value ranges in the list a few paragraphs below this one.

As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round, until the maximum of 32 has been reached. If there are 28 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first four picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, I’m projecting that 31 true comps will be awarded, including Atlanta’s comp pick for a net-value loss, which I mentioned earlier. Therefore, I’m projecting that Miami will receive a non-compensatory pick to fill out the maximum number of picks. If the NFL’s equation results in more than one non-compensatory pick being added, the next four teams in line to receive one would be St. Louis, the New York Jets, Atlanta and Oakland.

[sweetcaroline4056]

Here are the projected picks for 2008, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and other notes (I’ve also noted the six picks that fall near a cutoff point and could end up in a different round) –

THIRD ROUND
Washington (Derrick Dockery, $7 million per season, 16 GP/16 GS)
Cincinnati (Eric Steinbach, $6.971 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Adalius Thomas, $6.9 million, 16/15)

FOURTH ROUND
Buffalo (Mike Gandy, $4.667 million, 16/16)
Baltimore (Tony Pashos, $4.7 million, 15/15)
Philadelphia (Donte Stallworth, $5.083 million, 16/9)
Green Bay (Ahman Green, $5.6 million, 6/5)
Tennessee (Drew Bennett, $5 million, 14/1) – possibly a fifth- round pick
San Diego (Donnie Edwards, $4.5 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth- round pick

FIFTH ROUND
Philadelphia (Jeff Garcia, $4 million, 13/13, Pro Bowl)
N.Y. Giants (Visanthe Shiancoe, $3.6 million, 16/15) – possibly a sixth- round pick

SIXTH ROUND
Indianapolis (Nick Harper, $3.133 million, 14/14)
Indianapolis (Dominic Rhodes, $3.75 million, 10/2)
Philadelphia (Roderick Hood $3 million, 16/16)
Miami (Damion McIntosh, $2.95 million, 15/15)
Indianapolis (Cato June, $3 million, 16/14)
Baltimore (Ovie Mughelli, $3 million, 16/7)
Cincinnati (Kevin Kaesviharn, $2.4 million, 16/3) – possibly a seventh- round pick
Cincinnati (Kelley Washington, $2.5 million, 14/0) – possibly a seventh- round pick

SEVENTH ROUND
Baltimore (Aubrayo Franklin, $2 million, 14/13) – possibly a sixth- round pick
Carolina (Chris Draft, $1.358 million, 16/6)
Washington (Warrick Holdman, $1.375 million, 0/0, on IR all season)
Chicago (Justin Gage, $1 million, 16/
Cincinnati (Anthony Wright, $1.055 million, 4/0)
Chicago (Todd Johnson, $975,000, 16/1)
Buffalo (Andre Davis, $850,000, 14/
Chicago (Ian Scott, $1 million, 0/0, on IR all season)
Washington (Kenny Wright, $973,333, 7/1)
Carolina (Vinny Ciurciu, $966,667, 13/0)
Indianapolis (Mike Doss, $900,000, 8/1)
Atlanta (net-value comp; lost three for $9.567 million, 47/30 and one Pro Bowl; signed three for $4.964 million, 45/13)
Miami (non-compensatory pick)

[Jackofalltrades]

Really need two threads for this?

Appreciate the info, but it could have been all in one place.

[sweetcaroline4056]

it was 2 many characters for one thread

[AKPantherFan]

so we get 2 extra 7th round picks???

[PntherPryd]

merged, but I'll read it later

[Jackofalltrades]

Originally Posted by sweetcaroline4056

it was 2 many characters for one thread

[Jackofalltrades]

Originally Posted by AKPantherFan

so we get 2 extra 7th round picks???

Yup and hopefully an extra 5th if Seward goes to the Pats.

[nitroblast]

Saw this on the Lions forum a while back. At least we're getting something.

[sweetcaroline4056]

This thread is good for any nfl forum

[engine9]

Originally Posted by sweetcaroline4056

This thread is good for any nfl forum

I agree, but two posts rather than two threads



I'd rather keep seward stay on our team than have an extra 5th/6th rounder.

[HoFBound90]

Wayy to long for me to read...but looks like you did some great research either way.

[megadeth078]

a fifth rounder would have been better. The only thing good about having extra 7th rounders are for package trades. You can't trade comp picks, can you?

[Boltergeist]

Actually those projections come from here

The NFL will be coming out with the actual comps sometime early April.

[Boltergeist]

Originally Posted by megadeth078

a fifth rounder would have been better. The only thing good about having extra 7th rounders are for package trades. You can't trade comp picks, can you?

Nope, comps can't be traded

[solorca]

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