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AU-panther

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About AU-panther

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  1. 1. Don't fall in love with any player. No matter how smart you think you are history tells us that you are going to be wrong more times than not in the draft. Check your ego and play the odds. 2. Don't be afraid to trade down. I personally think the "trade value chart" that teams pretty closely follow favors trading down. Pure speculation on my part, haven't ran any analysis on it, but just speculation. I don't think you are trading a quarter for two dimes. I'm thinking it is more like a quarter for two 15 cent pieces. Of course there are exceptions to this but it goes back to my first rule, chances are you are going to be wrong about the guy anyway. 3. I believe in tiers, for example at 16 there is a good chance the players left on our board will have roughly the same grade. Perfect situation to trade down. Picks are capital, that 3rd you pick up you might can use to move up in the second and draft a player in a higher tier then you would have at 47. 4. If you do trade up make sure it is for a guy in the next tier. Also if you give up a pick try to get a later one in return. For example, if you are going to add your 4th to move up some in the second round with your 2nd pick try to get a seventh back. I've noticed lately that some teams seem to make this a point, Patriots especially. They might give up value but not overall number of picks. 5. There is nothing wrong with drafting a backup. Once you get past the 3rd round the chance of player becoming a quality starter is slim. There is value in having a decent backup on a fixed cheap contract for 4 years, best case they improve over time. That cheap vet really doesn't have upside. Players like Mayo come to mind. If you could keep 20 of your 53 players on rookie contracts at any given time you would be in good shape. 6. First round picks are expensive, you have to factor that into your thinking. Value is relative to what you get in free agency. Hence the reason I would stick to high value positions when possible. In the long run you don't have to be right as much with high value positions as cheaper positions. They free up cap to fill other spots through free agency. As a general rule I would look for QBs, OTs, Wrs, Edge rushers, and CBs early in the draft. Everyone else in the middle rounds and backups and projects later. 7. Grading players is only part of drafting well. Understanding where players are going to be drafted and what other teams are gong to do is also important. This lets you maximize value. Something I don't think we have done extremely well the past 5-6 years. 8. Don't fight the draft, this is where addressing needs in free agency is important. If a class is heavy at a certain position take advantage of it. If you can get a DT in the second round that would normally go in the first consider yourself lucky. Conversely don't draft a OT with a 2nd round grade in the first just because of need and/or a weak class.
  2. As much as people around here complain about Cam not having protection I don't see how you can really complain too much about drafting another O-lineman. Also we have two tackles right now (Williams and Moton) and neither or are really proven at LT. I know Moton looked decent there in very limited action but still a very small sample size. Also Williams has a bit of an injury history all ready. I'm not a huge fan of drafting interior lineman in the first, especially at 16. I would think if we do draft an o-lineman it will be someone who has the potential to play tackle, or maybe they think Moton or Williams can play guard. I just hope we don't force something. Don't overthink it. This draft seems really deep on the D-line and we could defiantly use help there also. I would be happy with a edge defender (4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB) or an interior D-lineman (3-4 End, 4-3 DT, or NT) in the first two rounds. Something like a Brian Burns in the first and Jerry Tillery in the second.
  3. So I when I first saw that it was a one year deal I was convinced that is a good sign we will go edge with our fist pick. That way he has a year to develop behind Addison and Irvin. but then I can convince myself if RR and Hurney are in win now mode (job preservation) then they could draft someone like Ford, who possible could be a day one starter at guard, and that might help us more in the short term. So who knows, it will probably be a position that none of us are expecting, like TE.
  4. Until the other team throws quick passes and the pass rushers don't have time to get to the QB because our secondary has to play soft.
  5. Just because we have guys returning doesn't mean we are set. For those that are high on Bradberrry and Jackson what are they basing it on? Bradberry's first year seemed to be his best. Jackson had flashes but its a littler early to be talking about Pro-Bowl. That seems too logical. Maybe Cockrell earns one of the outside spots across from Bradberry and Jackson can move to slot. Either way I will never mind us drafting a CB. I am of the belief that you can't really go wrong drafting OTs, Edge rushers, or CBs. Too important and too expensive. I can fill out the rest of the team in free agency cheaper and easier.
  6. AU-panther

    Willing to Trade Down?

    It all depends on how the board falls. Just going to 20 gets us a third. Lets say you grade on a 100 point scale and there is a 93, 89,88, and 88 left when it is your turn to pick. You take the 93 and call it a day. If the 93 is already gone and the 89,88, and 88 are the top 3 on your board you trade down to a point you are guaranteed to get one of them if the fourth guy is a tier below them. Personally if Sweat is there you take him. Maybe he is gone and your next three are Burns, Ford, and Williams. Maybe you like all of them equally and at that point you can trade down. At 16 I feel like there is a good chance that a trade down might be smart. Those upper tier guys will probably all be gone so it might be a perfect spot to trade back.
  7. AU-panther

    Front options in the 3-4

    That is really small for 3-4 end. I'm thinking something like DE - Butler/Love (if we resign him) NT - Poe DE - Short OLB - Addison ILB - Thompson ILB - Kuechly OLB - Haynes I would have to guess OLB for Cox and Obada. I don't think either is big enough to play 3-4 end. Maybe they are the hybrid part when we go 4-3. Or maybe a strongside OLB on running downs. Maybe it becomes OLB - Obada, Cox ILB - Thompson ILB - Kuechly OLB - Addison, Haynes Either way I really thought we would sign a FA D-lineman and draft one also.
  8. Somebody is going to get a steal with Simmons. I'm not sold on Ferguson but I don't think he is going to line up with our draft picks anyway. I feel like 16 is too early, and 47 will be too late.
  9. AU-panther

    Checking in on Compensatory Picks

    There is a pretty strong correlation between the teams that have historically received the most compensatory picks and winning percentage over that same time. Some of the best organizations in the league don't look at them as a consolation trophy. On a side note, how many would take a 4th right now for Poe?
  10. I am a bit shocked that we haven't signed a DE or OLB (if we are really going to 3-4) yet. Of all the positions that we all thought were needs DE was one positions I felt like we had to address in free agency. I thought we might "make due" with what we had at positions such as center and tackle, even safety, but DE was the one spot where our coaches and front office would want some experienced help. Even if we spend our first on a DE they can often take a year to get up to speed. Also I hate backing ourselves into a spot where we have to draft a certain position, especially at 16. I hope we don't get and have to trade up, which I would hate to have to do. Maybe the coaches are more comfortable with what we have on the roster than the fanbase. The free agency period is still really young but there hasn't been much chatter about a DE at all. How nervous is everyone else about it?
  11. AU-panther

    Clelin Ferrell

    If we really are going to a 3-4 could you see us picking Burns over Ferrell.
  12. AU-panther

    Clelin Ferrell

    Thank you. That is exactly what I've been wondering. I haven't watch him much but he seems more of a 4-3 guy. He might be a better prospect than someone like Burns but on our board Burns might be higher. This place is going to go crazy when he is on the board and we pass. Maybe part of the thinking for going 3-4 is that we don't have to invest as much draft capital into running it, or free agent dollars. That would free us up to take someone like Ford. I'm not saying that is the best approach but its you never know what are front office is thinking. Some people feel like you can "manufacture pressure" easier with the 3-4 and play calling, whereas the 4-3 is more dependent on individual talent.
  13. AU-panther

    Bill Barnwell on Matt Kalil roster status

    but that 7.25m could roll over even if you don't use it. Better way to look at it, if you cut him this year you have to account for $14.7m in dead money. Wether you want to spread it out with a June 1st cut is irrelevant to the point i'm making. If you keep him for one year and release him next year you will have to account for $21.95m in cap space. What is the better deal? One year of Kalil playing at $21.95m or Zero years of Kalil playing at $14.7m The only question that really should matter is, "is his expected production worth $7.25m?" If not you release him.
  14. Ford could be a really solid, safe pick. Like I said above RR made the point they wanted to protect Cam. With Williams resigning Ford makes a lot of sense. He could be a day one starter at LG and if Williams doesn't resign next year he might be a possibility at tackle. Ford is probably a better Guard prospect than any of the other tackles, might be the best guard prospect in the draft and he is probably the best tackle prospect out of any of the guards. Having that versatilely is really nice for your offensive line. I'm normally not a fan of taking guards in the first, especially with our needs on defense, but I could understand the thinking behind it. I'm not convinced he will be BPA at 16. For whatever reason I'm thinking of him as a 17-25 type of pick. I think a lot of our hoping a 8-12 type of pick falls to us. As a pure guard teams might have a higher grade on him. Maybe we could trade down a few spots and still get him. If we signed a DL during free agency I would feel better about it, but that just me.
  15. RR did say protecting Cam was a priority. What if their mindset is this, Kalil comes back healthy at LT Paradis at center. Turner at RG Moton at RT. Draft Ford for LG. Some people around here have been thinking that we go Oline in the first but maybe not for a tackle but instead for a guard. What is the chance they are comfortable with Kalil at LT.
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