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yayfootball

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About yayfootball

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  1. yayfootball

    CarolinaHuddle Pick'em - Week 11

    GB @ SEA: SEADAL @ ATL: ATLCIN @ BAL: BALCAR @ DET: CARTEN @ IND: INDTB @ NYG: NYGHOU @ WAS: HOUPIT @ JAX: PITOAK @ AZ: TIEDEN @ LAC: LACPHI @ NO: NOMIN @ CHI: MINKC @ LAR: LAR, Total Points: 73
  2. yayfootball

    CarolinaHuddle Pick'em - Week 10

    CAR @ PIT: CAR DET @ CHI: CHI NO @ CIN: NO ATL @ CLE: ATL JAX @ IND: IND AZ @ KC: KC BUF @ NYJ: NYJ WAS @ TB: TB NE @ TEN: NE LAC @ OAK: LAC MIA @ GB: GB SEA @ LAR: SEA DAL @ PHI: PHI NYG @ SF: SF, Total Points: 48
  3. yayfootball

    Too Early Saints Thread

    The Saints are one of the best teams in the league, but they are not an unbeatable juggernaut. Case in point, they have already lost at home to the Bucs and eked out victories over the Browns, Falcons, and Ravens. We are also one of the best teams in the league and, like the Saints, have an offense that is darn near unstoppable. The Saints' offense has been a bit more consistent over the course of the season, but that's to be expected when we have a new coordinator, a bunch of new receivers, and a bunch of injuries early in the season. The games will be tough, but we match up way better with the Saints than we did last year. Our offense is just much better overall than last year's unit, and the addition of Donte Jackson is huge for our defense's ability to match up with the Saints' offense. People love to complain about us playing soft coverage, but the reality is that we've played way more tight coverage and way more man-to-man coverage this year than we have the last couple years. We could never have played this way with Daryl Worley, but Jackson has the speed and instincts to stick with receivers. We are still vulnerable at the nickel, but it's a big improvement over last year when we had a hard time covering anybody. The Saints also have a small vulnerability on offense that we will hopefully be able to exploit: they've fallen in love with option plays involving their backup quarterback. It seems pretty clear that this part of their offense is worse than the rest of it, and they would do well to abandon it. Hill just isn't a good enough runner to make up for taking the ball out of Brees' hands. But the Saints seem pretty committed to calling a few of these plays each game, including in some crucial short-yardage situations, so hopefully we can take advantage of that to get some big third or fourth down stops. All in all, these should be some pretty even, entertaining games. With all due respect to the Rams, I think these are actually the two best teams in the NFC, so here's my bold prediction: the week 17 game will not just be winner-takes-the-division, it'll be winner-takes-the-1-seed.
  4. yayfootball

    Carolina Huddle Pick’em - Week 9

    OAK @ SF: OAK PIT @ BAL: BAL CHI @ BUF: CHI TB @ CAR: CAR KC @ CLE: KC NYJ @ MIA: MIA DET @ MIN: MIN ATL @ WAS: ATL HOU @ DEN: HOU LAC @ SEA: LAC LAR @ NO: LAR GB @ NE: GB TEN @ DAL: DAL Total Points: 47
  5. yayfootball

    Carolina Huddle Pick’em- Week 8

    MIA @ HOU: HOU PHI @ JAX: JAX BAL @ CAR: CAR NYJ @ CHI: CHI TB @ CIN: CIN SEA @ DET: DET DEN @ KC: KC WAS @ NYG: WAS CLE @ PIT: PIT IND @ OAK: IND SF @ AZ: AZ GB @ LAR: LAR NO @ MIN: MIN NE @ BUF: NE, Total Points: 47
  6. When the game is as close as this one was, everything you did wrong is the reason you lost. DJ Moore hanging on to the football would have won this game. Better pass protection would have won this game. A more accurate pass from Newton to CMC in the end zone would have won this game. The defense not jumping offsides on a couple key third downs probably would have won this game. And, yes, better decisions from the coaching staff would have won this game. I'm no doom-and-gloomer, nor am I on the fire Rivera train, but he deserves criticism for his poor choices in this game just as Moore deserves to be criticized for fumbling twice. Going for it on 4th and 1 is a better choice than punting unless you're backed up deep in your own end of the field. That's not an opinion; it's a statistical fact that better outcomes are generate more often by going for it. And it's just as true on the first possession of the game as it is on the last possession of the game (in fact, it's more true at the beginning of the game because there are some late-game time/score scenarios that can tip the scales towards punting). This also wasn't Rivera's only bad decision of the day. By deciding to just run it up the middle twice when we got the ball back with almost 2 minutes left in the first half, Rivera not only wasted another possession but also handed the ball back to Washington in scoring range. We were very lucky they didn't get another FG at the end of the half. When you voluntarily give up on possessions, you leave your players with less margin for error and magnify the impact of their mistakes.
  7. yayfootball

    Carolina Huddle Pick’em - Week 7

    DEN @ AZ: DEN TEN @ LAC: LAC NE @ CHI: NE BUF @ IND: IND HOU @ JAX: JAX DET @ MIA: DET MIN @ NYJ: MIN CAR @ PHI: CAR CLE @ TB: TB NO @ BAL: NO DAL @ WAS: DAL LAR @ SF: LAR CIN @ KC: KC NYG @ ATL: ATL, 62 total points
  8. That one possession was literally 10% of the team's opportunities to score a TD yesterday. When you throw away 1/10 of your chances to score because you are concerned about possibly failing on a play that has a 90% success rate, that's a bad coaching decision. To not even consider it because you're on the wrong side of the 50 is even worse. The ball was on the 47 yard line. Are we supposed to believe that 3 yards of field position somehow makes this an obviously punting scenario? Groupthink and ingrained tendencies have caused a lot of sports teams to spend a lot of time doing stupid things, so it really doesn't matter what other coaches would do, but since you bring it up, many coaches would have gone for it, as Jay Gruden did when faced with an identical scenario later in the first quarter.
  9. I disagree that the 3rd down play call was bad. If McCaffrey doesn't fall down on the catch, he picks up the first down easily and maybe even scores. Kicking the FG is at least a defensible decision since it makes it a one-score game, but given that we were still down a TD, the likelihood that we would end up being forced to go for it later was pretty high, and 4th and 3 is short enough that it will likely be a better opportunity than whatever 4th down attempt comes later. That was indeed the case, as we forced to go for it on 4th and 5.
  10. We had 9 real drives in the game (not counting the kneel to end the 1st half). By choosing not to go for it on 4th and 1 near midfield, choosing not to go for it on 4th and 3 deep in WAS territory, and choosing to just run up the middle on first and second down when we got the ball back with almost 2 min left in the first half, we essentially gave up on 3 of those drives. It's hard to win when you give up on 1/3 of your possessions. It's always baffled me how Rivera could revert to being so conservative after having so much success with more aggressive calls in 2013, but this game is the most frustrated I've ever been.
  11. I'll make that comparison: With regards to SB XXXVIII being the closest we've ever come to winning a Super Bowl, you can't give Fox credit for the Patriots missing two FGs from inside 40 yards in the first half. If they hit those, we never would have had possession of the ball with a deficit of less than 10 points in the second half. On the other hand, in SB 50 we gave up a long punt return to set up a FG when our players just stopped running (possibly because they believed a fair catch had been called), and Gano missed an easy FG in the third quarter. Without those special teams gaffes, the game would have been tied in the second half. The point is that while it's a fact that we came closer to winning SB XXXVIII than SB 50, that would be easily reversed by changing a small number of events that lie outside the coach's control, so you really can't use that fact to infer anything about the relative strengths of the coaching staffs. Now, what about halftime adjustments? It's true that the Panthers played better in the second half of SB XXXVIII, mounting 3 long scoring drives. But while not as obvious, the same is true of SB 50. In their first drive of the second half, the Panthers drove 54 yards, then got a WR matched up on a LB running deep down the sideline. When it comes to putting your players in a position to succeed, you can't do much better than that. But Von Miller made a great play, and Cotchery couldn't hang on to the ball, and Gano went on to miss the FG, so that drive yielded no points. On the next drive, the Panthers drove 52 yards before Ginn let a pass that probably would have resulted in a first down go straight through his hands for an interception. Overall, those two drives produced over 1/3 (106 yards / 315 yards) of our offense for the game, but didn't produce any points because our players failed to make plays that were there for them to make. So whatever we decided to do at halftime clearly worked. I would not hold up this game as evidence that Rivera is bad at making halftime adjustments. Final thing on the SBs, if we're going to keep in mind that Fox had Delhomme while Rivera had Newton, then we should also remember that Fox had Steve Smith, Mushin Muhammad, and Ricky Proehl while Rivera had Ginn, Funchess, and Cotchery. None of this is to say that there aren't valid criticisms of Rivera. There most certainly are. But pointing at one bad result without specific criticisms of the process that produced that result (pointing out that results in the second half were not better than results in the first half is not a criticism of the process) as evidence that Rivera isn't a "championship level" coach is just as nonsensical as using one good result to claim that Rivera is a "championship level" coach. By the way (sorry, I know this post is getting long), I was curious about how the Panthers have done coming out of halftime since you brought up halftime adjustments. So I searched for all drives that started between 15:00 and 10:00 left in the third quarter (the original idea was to look at the first drive after halftime, but I couldn't find a way to search for that), and compared them to drives in the first half. This is probably the purest measurement of halftime adjustments you can make since teams will not yet have had a chance to make counter adjustments to their opponents' halftime adjustments. First half under Rivera: CAR TD% - 23.8, CAR Score% - 40, OPP TD% - 16.6, OPP Score% - 34.7 Start of Q3 under Rivera: CAR TD% - 33.8, CAR Score% - 46.2, OPP TD% - 21.7, OPP Score% - 33.3 First half under Fox: CAR TD% - 16.9, CAR Score% - 29.8, OPP TD% - 16.8, OPP Score% - 29.5 Start of Q3 under Fox: CAR TD% - 15.5, CAR Score% - 29.9, OPP TD% - 17.1, OPP Score% - 29.8 Under Rivera, the Panthers have seen a big jump in their scoring at the start of the second half. This is not normal: our opponents during the same time period had a small increase in TD% but an overall decrease in Score%. Under John Fox, things were pretty much identical at the start of the second half. There may be other coaches who are even better, but the data indicate that Rivera is actually pretty good at making adjustments when he has a halftime break to think it over.
  12. If it was so obvious that Andrew Norwell was going to be good, then every team in the league made a huge mistake by not drafting him. And it's not like he played at some small school nobody's ever heard of; Norwell played at Ohio State. Guaranteed, every scouting department/coaching staff saw tape of his games, and no one thought he was worth spending even a 7th round pick on. But Ron Rivera is bad at making personnel decisions because it took him 7 games to put Norwell in the lineup? There are certainly some things that Rivera deserves to be criticized for - his clock management at the end of both halves against the Giants was atrocious - but this particular one just doesn't hold water. This is like the Amini Silatolu of all possible criticisms of Rivera: there's no need to keep bringing it up when there are Andrew Norwell-quality criticisms we could be discussing.
  13. yayfootball

    CarolinaHuddle Pick'em - Week 6

    PHI @ NYG: PHI TB @ ATL: ATL PIT @ CIN: CIN LAC @ CLE: LAC BUF @ HOU: HOU CHI @ MIA: CHI AZ @ MIN: MIN IND @ NYJ: NYJ SEA @ OAK: SEA CAR @ WAS: CAR LAR @ DEN: LAR JAX @ DAL: JAX BAL @ TEN: BAL KC @ NE: KC SF @ GB: GB MNF Total Score: 51 points
  14. yayfootball

    The kickoff at the end of the game

    This rule came about because of the ending of SB XXXVI. With 7 seconds left in the game, the Patriots kicked a FG to take the lead. It looked like there was still 2 seconds left when the ball went through the uprights, but they let it run down to zero, denying the Rams any shot at a miracle return. So they made a rule that FGs couldn't take longer than 5 seconds.
  15. yayfootball

    Random Monday QB thoughts ~

    This became a rule because of the end of SB XXXVI. Vinatieri's game-winning field goal was kicked with 7 seconds left on the clock, and the ball appeared to go through the uprights with 2 seconds still left on the clock, but the clock operator let it run down to zero, denying the Rams a chance to try for a miracle return.
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