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CRA

The Official Robert Mueller is comin! Thread

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20 hours ago, NanuqoftheNorth said:

.Russians have interfered in US elections for generations, long before you or I were born.

That is no secret.  It never has been.

Again, what makes the 2016 elections any different?  What makes it "Substantial"?

The amount of money Russia spent to interfere in the 2016 US elections is a mere pittance in comparison to the amount spent by candidates, their PACs and Super PACs.

Where are all these voters who decided to vote Trump instead of Clinton based upon Russian interference? 

I wasn't swayed by Russian interference, were you?  Where are all these dolts that made a "Substantial" difference to the outcome of the election?

I've never come across a single one of them in over two years of discussing this issue.

And please reply to this question as well:

Secondly, how exactly has Trump rewarded Russia?

In Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Iran and Germany the Trump administration is actively working against Putin's interests.  Those are just off the top of my head.

Trump has ratcheted up tensions w/Russia in all these situations relative to Obama's administration.  

If Trump is "Putin's Puppet" what would that make Obama?

Could you please cite previous incidents where Russia has meddled with US elections to the extent that has been revealed? That comes across as an attempt to normalize election meddling as if common occurrence makes it any less illegal. What makes this substantial is that a foreign power was successful in getting their candidate elected.

Those PACs and super PACs were used to funnel Russian money, yes. However, their existence again does not absolve anyone.

As to how Trump has rewarded them, there have been many ways. It was revealed when Flynn was pinched that he had discussed easing sanctions on Russia with Sergey Kislyak. The Trump Tower meeting was also revealed to have had talks concerning the repeal of the Magnitsky Act which sanctioned Russian oligarchs thought to be involved in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. There was also the desire by the Trump side to do further business in Russia for personal gain (Cohen being sent to meet in regards to Trump Tower Moscow). Oleg Deripaska's companies were targeted by sanctions due to 2016 Russian election meddling, and in January of this year Trump eased those sanctions despite bipartisan criticism. Trump has also shown that he will not follow the Global Magnitsky Act after refusing to hold anyone accountable for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Then there is of course the general divide and discourse within the country, calling into question the legitimacy of our government and systems. Regarding Syria, Putin hailed the troop withdrawal as "correct."

Russian impact is vastly undersold by trying to minimalize the investment and effectiveness of their methods. This was actually discussed today during a House Intelligence hearing: https://www.c-span.org/video/?459258-1/house-intelligence-committee-examines-russian-election-interference-tactics

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6 minutes ago, Icege said:

Could you please cite previous incidents where Russia has meddled with US elections to the extent that has been revealed? That comes across as an attempt to normalize election meddling as if common occurrence makes it any less illegal. What makes this substantial is that a foreign power was successful in getting their candidate elected.

 

Along with this - this type of targeting is brand new.  Trying to wield power through dark money in pacs (which needs to be banned also) or have officials from other countries pressure policy is nothing new.

What is new is the social direct marketing to targeted individuals.  Did THAT new tactic tip the scales.  Researchers believe this could be figured out if we as a society are willing to invest in the heavy cost of the research.  A true patriotic american would support that - did this specific direct target methodology WORK and that will help us prevent it in the future.

 

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By now it’s a well-established fact that Moscow tried to interfere in the 2016 vote. We know that Russian intelligence agents hacked into computers of the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman and orchestrated the release of corresponding documents to compromise the Clinton campaign. We know that Vladimir Putin’s operatives in the Internet Research Agency (IRA) organized a large-scale social media campaign designed to influence voters in a variety of ways.

Yet we still don’t know whether Russia’s efforts made the difference. Given just how narrow Trump’s margin of victory was — less than 80,000 votes in three key swing states — it stands to reason that any help he received from Moscow could have helped him to win. But we can’t be sure — because we don’t know how many American voters were actually persuaded by Russian information operations to change their votes (or to stay away from the polls altogether).

how successful were they at changing voter behavior? How many potential Clinton voters did they persuade to pull the lever for Trump? Did they convince some voters to sit out the election altogether?

Take, for example, those three crucial swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. As Philip Bump wrote about Clinton shortly after the election: “But for 79,646 votes cast in those three states, she’d be the next president of the United States.”

Aral says he and his colleagues want to study the Russian influence campaign in precisely this geographical context. The MIT scholars have developed a robust methodology for assessing how social media campaigns influence the behavior of their targets — and now they want to bring it to bear on the Russian meddling in 2016. “We need a rigorous, scientific postmortem on Russian misinformation to harden our democracy against future attacks,” he told me. “While current analyses focus on Russia’s reach, what we’re missing is an analysis of their impact – who their misinformation targeted and what effect it had.”

Aral and his MIT research partner Dean Eckles sent me what they call a “blueprint” for such a study. They propose zeroing in on the issue of “causality” by analyzing how different levels of disinformation changed behavior and opinions. They would use randomized experiments to estimate shifts in voter turnout and voting.

“For example, Facebook and Twitter constantly test new variations on their feed ranking algorithms, which cause people to be exposed to varying levels of different types of content,” they write. “One underpublicized A/B test run by Facebook during the 2012 U.S. presidential election caused users to be exposed to more ‘hard news’ from established sources, with effects on political knowledge, preferences, and voter turnout.” Given access to adequate data, the researchers claim they can estimate the impact of the Russian influence campaign in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida “with 95% to 99% confidence.”

To conduct such a study properly, we’d probably need far more information from the social media platforms than they’ve been willing to release so far. (We still don’t know everything that Facebook and Twitter know, for example.) And it certainly wouldn’t hurt to know more about how the Russians did their targeting and any of the help they received on that front from outsiders. (Manafort?)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/11/theres-way-know-if-russia-threw-election-trump/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ad0a4f4b1173

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8 hours ago, Icege said:

Could you please cite previous incidents where Russia has meddled with US elections to the extent that has been revealed? That comes across as an attempt to normalize election meddling as if common occurrence makes it any less illegal.

Is our education system doing such a poor job these days that Americans are really this clueless?   http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/science-and-technology/active-measures-a-history-of-russian-interference-in-us-elections

What makes this substantial is that a foreign power was successful in getting their candidate elected.

You repeatedly saying this ^^^ doesn't make it true. 

I am unaware of any serious examination of the 2016 presidential election that has claimed Russian interference was a "substantial" factor in Trump's victory.

As to how Trump has rewarded them, there have been many ways. It was revealed when Flynn was pinched that he had discussed easing sanctions on Russia with Sergey Kislyak. The Trump Tower meeting was also revealed to have had talks concerning the repeal of the Magnitsky Act which sanctioned Russian oligarchs thought to be involved in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. There was also the desire by the Trump side to do further business in Russia for personal gain (Cohen being sent to meet in regards to Trump Tower Moscow). Oleg Deripaska's companies were targeted by sanctions due to 2016 Russian election meddling, and in January of this year Trump eased those sanctions despite bipartisan criticism.

These issues ^^^ are beyond trivial when compared to those I cited in my previous post.  Any one of which clearly demonstrates Trump is NOT Putin's tool.

Only those most heavily invested in the "Russia, Russia, Russia" narrative blindly refuse to acknowledge that Trump has been "significantly" to the right of Obama in implementing US countermeasures to Russian global influence.

The issues you've raised have more to do with Trump's long history of corrupt business practices and his ongoing attempts to expand his business empire in Russia and around the world.  That is where the dems should have focused their energies.  Corrupt business practices, that is what will bring down Trump.

Who is calling Obama a Russian stooge?  Nobody.  And yet...

 

What establishment dems and their media supporters are doing is irresponsible, recklessly and short sighted. 

In their fervor to punish Russian election interference they've provided Trump's adminstration with a window of opportunity to trash Obama's signature diplomatic achievement, the multi-national agreement with Iran to stop the development of nuclear weapons. 

Thanks to Obama's efforts, the US and our allies were primed to draw Iran back into the Western sphere of influence and advance the cause of peace in the ME.  The Iranian agreement would have also provided an opportunity to distance the United States from the despotic Saudis.  Instead the dems traded that all away because Hillary (a horrible politician and campaigner) lost to a professional carnival barker filling peoples heads full of lies and wishful thinking.

Corporate dems have intentionally raised global tensions between the two greatest nuclear powers on the planet.  This lack of detente is truly stunning to behold and will take years if not decades to repair the damage.

... refusing to hold anyone accountable for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Then there is of course the general divide and discourse within the country, calling into question the legitimacy of our government and systems.

What does this have to do with Russia?  You know that Saudi Arabia is our ally, right?  Yes, Trump is a stooge for Saudi Arabia giving them nuclear technology and multi-billion arms systems that will ratchet up the chances of a serious arms race in the ME.

 

What do we actually know about the 2016 election?

Trump is a professional showman who studied leaders like Benito Mussolini, a faux populist who rose to power by playing to the economic desperation of the working class.  

Hillary ran on a tired 1990s platform of establishment rhetoric that generated very little enthusiasm.  Essentially, the same platform that resulted in the dems losing 1000 political seats across this nation over the course of 4 election cycles. Why would anyone paying attention expect her campaign results to be any different?

Hillary generated so little enthusiasm she couldn't even fill a gymnasium with supporters. 

Trump filled sports stadiums across this nation (with overflow crowds outside).  

Trump told his base what they wanted to hear. 

Hillary was stuck in the 1990s with her third way politics.

Why did Hillary lose to Trump? 

More often than not, the simplest answer is the best answer. 

Quote

Occam's razor (or Ockham's razor) is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the one that requires the least speculation is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation.

Trump used the same BS to handily beat his establishment republican competitors as well. 

The only ones still in denial about why Hillary lost are those drinking the establishment dems Kool Aid. 

Their primary media cheerleader, Rachel Maddow, is looking for a rock to crawl under, as her TV show ratings have tanked since the release of Mueller's report.   Hopefully her deluded fans will soon join her.

Regarding Syria, Putin hailed the troop withdrawal as "correct."

You do realize the US played a "significant" role in creating the mess in Syria don't you?

Guess what?  Just because Putin is a crony capitalist doesn't mean everything he says is entirely wrong/a lie.

Are you aware that the US launched an illegal invasion of a sovereign state (again) when they invaded Syria?

So by law, Trump is "correct" the US should withdraw our troops (we should not attempt to set up permanent bases in Syria). 

Russian impact is vastly undersold by trying to minimalize the investment and effectiveness of their methods. This was actually discussed today during a House Intelligence hearing: https://www.c-span.org/video/?459258-1/house-intelligence-committee-examines-russian-election-interference-tactics. 

I am well aware of the close relationship between the Russian state and the oligarchs. 

Are you aware of the US interference in Russian elections?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/07/the-us-has-a-long-history-of-election-meddling/565538/

Russia is 1/10 the size of the United States when it comes to GDP.   It is 1/10 the size when it comes to military budget as well and that doesn't even take into consideration all our allies around the globe, making the Russian military look puny by comparison.  Russia is virtually surrounded by the US and our allies. 

It is beyond belief how many people are eager to start a new cold war over their misdirected political angst.  Have you forgotten how your government duped you into Iraq?  How about Libya?  Are you even old enough to recall Vietnam?

Bottom line:  Can't wait until "Duck and Cover" becomes a thing again.

Thanks dems. Hope going to the far right of Trump on foreign policy to advance a false narrative that "Trump is weak on Russia"  is worth endangering the planet and every living thing on it.

Nuclear risks have been compounded by US-Russia relations that now feature more conflict than cooperation. Coordination on nuclear risk reduction is all but dead, and no solution to disputes over the INF Treaty—a landmark agreement to rid Europe of medium-range nuclear missiles—is readily apparent. Both sides allege violations, but Russia’s deployment of a new ground-launched cruise missile, if not addressed, could trigger a collapse of the treaty. Such a collapse would make what should have been a relatively easy five-year extension of the New START arms control pact much harder to achieve and could terminate an arms control process that dates back to the early 1970s.

https://thebulletin.org/2018-doomsday-clock-statement/

TLDR Version:

Congress and the USAG did the right thing investigating Russian meddling (regardless of who won the election).  Now it is time for the dems to focus their energies on proper governance, regaining control of the US Senate, state houses across this nation and making Trump a one term POTUS in 2020.

 

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lot of Chomsky being thrown about...

 

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4 minutes ago, Thelt said:

The Russia hoax was a fantasy made up by shocked establishment types from both parties who could not accept that the next person in line to be president was beaten by a reality tv star.  The deep state is real and it crosses party lines.  Any president that upsets their apple cart is going to incur their wrath.  JFK found that out the hard way back in the day. 

pretty sure everyone had a problem w/ Trump.  Some of just were forced to accepted it.   That is addressing the establishment left and right.  Sane middle as well. 

and yeah, they had a problem w/ the fact an unfit human was going to be POTUS (and we aren't talking Hilltary type unfit)...makes it a little worse when a hostile foreign power wanted him in office and seemed to be open to working w/ them. 

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1 minute ago, Thelt said:

The Russia hoax was a fantasy made up by shocked establishment types from both parties who could not accept that the next person in line to be president was beaten by a reality tv star.  The deep state is real and it crosses party lines.  Any president that upsets their apple cart is going to incur their wrath.  JFK found that out the hard way back in the day. 

Trump's incoherent lies in Michigan:

1. "After three years of lies and smears and slander, the Russia hoax is finally dead. The collusion delusion is over."
For the record, the Mueller probe produced 199 charges against 37 people and entities. Seven people pleaded guilty. Five people were sentenced to prison. So, this investigation was not quite a "hoax." And away we go!
 
2. "The Special Counsel completed its report and found no collusion and no obstruction."
Not true! Yes, Mueller has ended his investigation. And, yes, according to the attorney general's summary of the Mueller report, there was no collusion established. But Mueller specifically wrote that while his investigation did not conclude the President committed a crime, that decision "does not exonerate" Trump on the matter.
 
3. "Total exoneration. Complete vindication."
 
4. "The crazy attempt by the Democrat Party and the fake news media right back there and the 'deep state' to overturn the results of the 2016 election have failed."
To be clear: The special counsel investigation was launched by a Trump appointee -- Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein -- and run by a lifelong Republican (Mueller). It is not clear how that amounts to a "deep state" conspiracy aimed at overturning the results of the 2016 election.
 
6. "The Russia witch hunt was a plan by those who lost the election to try and illegally regain power by framing innocent Americans, many of them."
Not to beat a dead horse here but ... seven people affiliated in a variety of ways with Trump and/or his campaign pleaded guilty to crimes ranging from financial fraud to lying to investigators about the breadth and depth of conversations with Russians. I am not sure how "those who lost the election" were able to make that happen. But remember that Trump and his base thrive on a) victimhood and b) conspiracy theories. And so, Trump leans heavily into both.
 
11. "Just think of it, a fake, dirty dossier, millions and millions of dollars paid for it, by who? Crooked Hillary Clinton, the DNC and the Democrat Party."
Quick fact check: Parts of the so-called "Steele Dossier" have been confirmed by our intelligence community. And a conservative media site -- the Washington Free Beacon -- was the original funder of the opposition research that became the dossier.
 
18. "When they spy on me, whoever heard of this, they spied on me. They spied on our campaign. Who would think that's possible?"
[narrator voice] They didn't. Since he tweeted in March 2017 that President Barack Obama had ordered a wiretap on his phones at Trump Tower, Trump has provided zero evidence to back up that claim. And lots of government officials in a position to know have denied it.
 
26. "China and by the way we are building that wall as you -- we are building that wall. Build it."
"I'll take 'stream of consciousness' for $500, Alex."
 
27. "It's faster and it's less expensive and it's also much more beautiful."
Donald Trump would like you to know the border wall is "much more beautiful" than people have said.
 
28. "They do anything they can -- you're a shifty shift."
I honestly have no idea.
 
29. "I support the Great Lakes, always have. They're beautiful. They're big, very deep, record deepness."
Many people say the Great Lakes have the best deepness. (Related: The deepest lake in the world is Lake Baikal in southern Russia. The deepest lake in the United States is Crater Lake in Oregon.)
 
33. "You'd be doing wind, windmills. 'Wind'. And if it doesn't -- if it doesn't blow you can forget about television for that night. Darling I want to watch television. I'm sorry, the wind isn't blowing. I know a lot about wind. I know a lot about wind."
OH. MY. GOD.
 
38. "The radical Democrats retaliated by passing a reckless resolution to terminate vital border security operations. Can you believe this?"
[narrator voice] So did the Republican-controlled Senate.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Okay, can someone please translate #33?
 
 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Thelt said:

I have never seen any credible evidence that Trump or anyone on his team colluded with the Russians.  I am unaware of any witness to claim direct knowledge of a such an event.  I don't understand how this investigation ever got started.  Was it because of the joke Trump told during one of the debates about the Russians finding Hillary's email?

Read #4 above, dumbass.

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1 minute ago, Thelt said:

I have never seen any credible evidence that Trump or anyone on his team colluded with the Russians.  I am unaware of any witness to claim direct knowledge of a such an event.  I don't understand how this investigation ever got started.  Was it because of the joke Trump told during one of the debates about the Russians finding Hillary's email?

the biggest issue is Trump is morally bankrupt crook who is unfit to he POTUS.....who is compromised by foreign countries. 

There is direct proof of him being compromised (the Trump family admits who bailed them out).....and the negative impact it has one our nation (Trump aids those who bailed him out over American interest).  Which is why you actually vet your candidates.   Trump wasn't vetted by the GOP because they didn't want the con man reality TV star. 

as for as collusion? You have direct evidence of collusion.  They have admitted it.  Well, after being caught lying about it.  But for some reason Trumpers are totally cool w/ Trump always lying about everything.  It was done in front of the world as well.  How beneficial was it? Now that is the unknown.  Might of been nothing.  But they colluded.   And colluded isn't a legal term hence why we can say they at least did that. 

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32 minutes ago, CRA said:

lot of Chomsky being thrown about...

Yeah, he is awesome!

Rachel Maddow, not so much.

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33 minutes ago, CRA said:

lot of Chomsky being thrown about...

Yeah, he is awesome!

Rachel Maddow and corporate cable news, not so much.

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3 minutes ago, Thelt said:

You can't separate your hate for Trump from the legal case. 

False.  

You simply think the legal case Mueller does or doesn't bring is all that matters.

I disagree with that.   The bar for Trump isn't either Mueller can bring a conspiracy charge against him....or he is good,  innocent of wrong doing by a POTUS, and fit to be POTUS. 

 

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