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E CaT PanTHer 2

Stay safe ya'll

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I know we disagree on a lot of things on this board, but I would never wish ill will on any of you guys. 

Hope you and your families stay safe in the Carolinas. Take all the precaution needed. 

 

Screenshot_20180910-103027_Newsroom.jpg

Edited by E CaT PanTHer 2
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How about stop voting in climate change deniers you PoS.

 

--

Sep 8
 
Sep 8: The NHC is projecting that Hurricane Florence will be a Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds 5 days from now.

One reason why forecasts are anticipating that Florence will rapidly intensify is the ocean temperatures. Sea surfacetemperatures are at least 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average off the East Coast, giving the storm plenty of fuel. This should allow the storm to intensify.

-

 

It took 2 days and is still intensifying.

 

 

Edited by Fryfan
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  • Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.  Models project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.
  • Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
  • https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Edited by Fryfan
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2 minutes ago, Fryfan said:

How about stop voting in climate change deniers you PoS.

 

 

Wow, I'm here wishing for your guys safety and you pull this poo? 

Not really surprised I guess

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Just now, E CaT PanTHer 2 said:

Wow, I'm here wishing for your guys safety and you pull this poo? 

Not really surprised I guess

Because your wishing is bullshit.   We need policy actions.

So yes your wishing proves you are a PoS - you want bad policy and then to placate yourself of anything you "wish the best"

 

 

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Research is still very much new into the converging of factors especially in the alantic.   But it is converging towards signs that hurricanes will be more powerful and have more probability to stall (which could be devastating if they stall right at coasts).  But these increased storms could be a drain on warm level top water and kill out smaller subsequent storms.  So overall activity of may trend downwards based on larger storm events:

 

--https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/06/analyzing-climate-change-hurricane-links/

The melting sea ice – for which she finds no explanation other than climate change – is creating colder than normal water off the coast of Greenland, amusingly referred to as the “cool blob.” The cool blob is backing up the Gulf Stream, essentially slowing it down like a blocked drain she says “is causing our warm water, which is connected to hurricanes.”

She says also that the rapidly melting Arctic is connected to winds. There are two mechanisms at work, both playing out through multi-step impacts.

One is that the north-south temperature difference is much smaller because of Arctic warming. That in turn weakens the west to east winds of the jet stream, which in turn makes it meander more. That meandering can result in the formation of atmospheric eddies – like those you would see in water. They spin off on their own and pick up systems and move them in strange patterns or block them. This is what happened during Sandy.

“There was a big eddy sitting near Newfoundland, and instead of the jet stream basically picking it up and taking it across the Atlantic as it normally would, it got caught in this return flow,” she explains. “The eddy was spinning clockwise creating east winds. Sandy came up coast and that’s what took it on a left-hand turn.”

The second mechanism involves the general worldwide warming that is resulting in earlier melting of snow cover, which in turn dries out and warms up the land earlier. That in turn pushes the jet stream farther north, which in turn leaves light wind patterns where the jet stream might otherwise have been. Francis said that’s what happened during Hurricane Harvey. It meandered in from the Gulf; there were no winds to move it; so it parked – right over Houston as it turned out – and just kept feeding off that nice warm water hurricane fuel.

“This is all very new merging research,” she says. “This is not something you can point to and say ‘this is an established fact and clear connection to climate change.’ But it’s all kind of making sense and fitting the kinds of behaviors we have expected to see more often.”

But she and others point to a missing link – what’s happening to the under-the-surface water temperature.

   

Scott Glenn is trying to figure that one out. He’s also at Rutgers; a distinguished professor in the Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences. He’s been looking at the water below the warming surface level in the mid-Atlantic – an area he says has one of the world’s largest temperature differences between top and bottom.

When storms come through, they suck heat out of the water; they stir up the cold and warm; and depending on how much of each is there and all other kinds of factors, that can have different impacts on a storm’s intensity.

Glenn uses underwater autonomous gliders that measure temperature to help determine how deep the warm water goes: how quickly a storm can change the composition of the water – pretty quick he says; and then what those factors do to a storm.

He’s gotten some pretty accurate information. As Irene approached New Jersey in 2011, he knew from the real-time data his gliders were sending back that there was intense mixing of cold and warm water, which he felt would de-intensify the storm as it hit land. That’s exactly what happened, sending what was largely a rainstorm inland.

With Sandy, the data showed the storm direction was pushing cold water away. The water in the storm’s path stayed warm, causing it to intensify as it hit land, with catastrophic results on the Jersey shore.

A potentially important forecasting tool, but not quite a direct link to climate change … yet.

“We know the water is warming in our area. We know that the surface water is changing. We know that the bottom cold water is changing even more rapidly. We know that it is undergoing that transition to that cold winter condition at later and later times each year,” he says. “How this warming and cooling is impacting the hurricanes is still kind of an unknown.”

   

Kevin Trenberth is a distinguished senior scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. He is right onboard with the climate change impact of additional warming. He points out that atmospheric moisture over oceans is five to 10 percent higher than it used to be. Tropical storms can grab that moisture to invigorate themselves. They in turn become more intense, bigger, last longer, and then reach out and grab even more moisture.

But he is cautious: “I’m not saying the hurricanes themselves or the tropical storms are caused by climate change,” he says. “Hurricanes and tropical storms happen naturally and there’s a tremendous amount of natural variability.”

Most of that has to do with El Niño and La Niña. They are Pacific phenomena that tend to have oppositional impacts on the Atlantic and its hurricanes. Does climate change play a role in their formation? That’s unknown. They seem to be running through their longstanding cycles the way they always have.

To over-simplify – El Niño is marked by weaker winds, warmer temperatures and more rain over the ocean. La Niña has stronger winds, cooler temperatures and more rain over the land. They act in kind of a seesaw effect with the Atlantic. When the Pacific is more active in El Niño years, it suppresses action in the Atlantic. It’s the opposite with La Niña.

Last year El Niño did not materialize as expected and the Atlantic hurricane season was busier.

Trenberth and others also point out that hurricanes pull a lot of heat out of the water they pass over, which usually keeps hurricanes out of that area for several years. So if climate change is thought to have contributed to the formation of a big storm, arguably it could also be considered a contributor to the quiet years after that storm.

“There may actually be fewer storms,” he says. “One big storm can actually take a lot of heat out of the ocean and create a less favorable environment for the next storm. So one big storm can replace three or four smaller storms.”

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

This ones going to be a fun one. It is picking up a poo ton of warm water right now. 

Its absolutely no joke and it could be what our future will be more of.  Quickly intensifying, large amounts of precipitation, and potential to stall right at landfall:

 

--

omputer models are still projecting a range of landfall locations, so anywhere from South Carolina to Virginia are still in play. This will be a very large storm, with damaging impacts far from the center.

If Florence follows current model projects and official forecasts, it would...

  • Be capable of producing 20-30+ inches of rain in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, possibly including the D.C. area. This is a nightmare inland flood scenario.
  • Bring hurricane-force winds for more than a day to a swath of land about 350 miles in diameter or greater, extending well inland from the landfall point. 
  • Drive one of the largest potential storm surges on record onto the Carolina coast.
  • Be one of the strongest hurricanes on record to make landfall in the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic.
  • Make landfall or come closest to land on Thursday-Friday before stalling for up to three days.

 

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Wishing a bunch of morons who think Republicans cause severe hurricanes good health is a complete waste of time, as I hope you know know.  They want you dead so you should put down the crack pipe and return the sentiment. 

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Republican policy on climate IS a deadly one.   I wish people that support it do more then wish good thoughts and to say be safe, I wish they would stop supporting deadly policy.

 

So FU Tondi.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

white supremacists scare me more

Its all related:

 

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The relationship between racial attitudes and public opinion about climate change is examined. Public opinion data from Pew and American National Election Studies surveys are used to show that racial identification and prejudices are increasingly correlated with opinions about climate change during the Obama presidency. Results show that racial identification became a significant predictor of climate change concern following Obama’s election in 2008, and that high levels of racial resentment are strongly correlated with reduced agreement with the scientific consensus on climate change. These results offer evidence for an effect termed the spillover of racialization. This helps further explain why the public remains so polarized on climate change, given the extent to which racial grievances and identities have become entangled with elite communication about climate change and its related policies today.

Figure

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644016.2018.1457287

Edited by Fryfan

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tell your boy Trump to turn on the HAARP machine to deflect the hurricane, if you really care...

I know if you believe in space lasers starting forest fires then you have to believe in the HAARP machine controlling the weather...

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15 minutes ago, Bronn said:

tell your boy Trump to turn on the HAARP machine to deflect the hurricane, if you really care...

I know if you believe in space lasers starting forest fires then you have to believe in the HAARP machine controlling the weather...

Holy fug that was a good one.

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