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Icege

Changing the Narrative, Vol. 1: #9 vs. #16

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Bitching about draft position is on the same level of thinking the panthers will get an easier schedule if they lose more games. 

Its useful as an indicator for who’s opinions you can immediately disregard. 

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anyone that thinks picking at 16 is better than picking at 9 is an idiot.   i mean holy god.   how are our school systems this bad.  it doesn't matter how you try to explain it.  you're an idiot

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2 things are true.

1. A higher pick allows for a 'better chance' or at least a better opportunity to get the position and player you want.

2. Its unreasonable to expect that a professional team would purposefully tank. 

 

The logic of people upset that we won is understandable. But the expectation that the players and coaches should have allowed us to lose is dumb. Everyone plays for their jobs (coaches and players). No player is going to miss a tackle to that their team might lose the game and get a better draft position. 

I would not support a team that encouraged themselves to lose games. That's a terrible mentality, especially if its supported by the coach. 

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if you can't understand that you have 7 more of the top players to choose from at 9 than at 16 you're probably an anti-vaxxer also, believe in chem trails, lizard people, a hollow earth that's also flat...

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1 hour ago, Carolina Cajun said:

Main takeaway is that gettleman fuged us hard in the draft from 2014-2016.  Not a single one will get a second contract from us.

And that right there is why this team is struggling.  You can’t go 3 years without drafting a few major impact players and hope for sustained success.  The good news is the last two drafts have been very good.  But thanks to the three years prior, it might take us another couple years of good drafts before we are where us fans would like us to be.  

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

I appreciate the write up and analysis.  I would also argue that a stud pass rusher could do wonders for this team overnight.  You just can’t underestimate the power of pass rush, it makes the existing secondary worlds better immediately.   If a stud DE/DT is there at 16 I’m good with it all of it.

tb100, looking at the current prospect rankings and how loaded DL is was what had me look back on the history of the picks to see if there was as big of a drop off as folks were screaming it was.

I feel fairly confident that we can still land ourselves a premium defensive linemen that can help improve the pass rush at #16 that can compare to #9. DL in the 1st, and either interior OL or safety help in the 2nd is what I would like to see (should the players we want be there, ofc).
 

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58 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Lol. Not every selection is rolling the dice. It’s like trying to win the NBA lottery. You aren’t guaranteed the top spot, but I’d rather have a 25% chance to hit than a 1%. If every selection was rolling the dice then there’d be way more Tom Brady’s instead of just 1. Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Cam Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Aaron Rodgers, etc. were all available at 16, but they were all also still first rounders. It’s not a crap shoot. It’s a chance with worse odds every pick you go down. 

This I agree with 100%, the odds definitely decrease the further down you go, but there are other probabilities to look at as well. From a 2015 article...

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Most of us can agree that the pass rush needs new life I would assume. With that in mind:
 

Quote
  • Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
  • Of 442 players selected, only 114 have become starters for at least half their careers.
  • Drafting a defensive lineman in the 4th round has the highest success rate of all positions at 37%.
  • If you were ranking rounds by number drafted it would be 7th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd and 5th.
  • The success rates are as follows: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 26%, 3rd - 27%, 4th - 37%, 5th - 13%, 6th - 13%, 7th - 3%
  • On average, 8 linemen are taken in the 1st, 5 in the 2nd, 6 in the 3rd and 4th, 5 in the fifth and sixth and 9 in the 7th.

Those stats, to me, take a giant poo on the toxic Huddlers that are somehow walking away from this thinking that "#16 is better than #9" when it's been stated repeatedly that the purpose of the thread is to illustrate that the difference between the two spots is negligible and not deserving of the angst that we're seeing from some of the more polarized posters (not you ofc, you're clearly interested in a civil discussion). They're about as useful as my co-worker that I'm waiting on to get out of the bathroom so that we can go tf home -_-

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Not that I was one of the ones pissed about dropping draft spots. I was just pissed about giving Rivera more pink-slip repellant. 

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23 minutes ago, Icege said:

This I agree with 100%, the odds definitely decrease the further down you go, but there are other probabilities to look at as well. From a 2015 article...

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Most of us can agree that the pass rush needs new life I would assume. With that in mind:
 

I don’t mean to say stats can lie, but the premise of the article is being a starter. There’s a big difference in Luke Kuechly and other starters. The 4th round DL is interesting but I’d have to see specific examples of players to really just believe it at face value.

Three years later and gems like this make me chuckle (who would you rather have now?):

It's interesting to think that just last year, Jadeveon Clowney was the next big, sure thing. His injury and microfracture surgery has cast a pale over his career. Statistically, he has a high bust potential. Yet, this little fact is not mentioned around combine or draft time... Poe has been the shining star but the jury is still out on Bailey. The Chiefs later round d-line picks have been rather anonymous.

 

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25 minutes ago, Icege said:

Another interesting article, this one with LOTS of tables including Pro Bowl/Bust rates for 1st round and top-10 selections via position groups using 10yr & 20yr samples:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

The biggest thing I pulled out of that was that positions that are undervalued had the best pro-Bowl/no bust rate. You rarely see C, G, RB, TE, LB go first round unless they are so special. Teams will reach on a tackle or DE or QB so of course the hey you can get a good one in the 2nd round type of positions should fare better. It’d be interesting to see if the top half of the 1st DL/OT pro-bowl/no bust rate was similar to the 1st round LB/G/C rate meaning that the % rates are the same at any position when adjusting for how much earlier a position gets drafted than another. A 2nd round OT = 3rd round C.

I was glad that the mentioned all-pro QB rates were so low because the longevity of specific players. Hard to be an all-pro QB if your name is not Brady, Rodgers or Brees even if you are a top QB. 

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17 minutes ago, JawnyBlaze said:

What about picks 10-15?

I posted about that earlier. Looking at 9-15 compared to 16 looks a lot more drastic. Look at our guys CMC and Luke. The guys picked 10-15 those two years that are studs, not just good picks, are Fletcher Cox, Deshaun Watson, Marshon Lattimore and Pat Mahomes. That doesn’t include multiple guys with pro-bowls just the complete studs. The funny thing is that in Kuechly’s draft, 9-15 was the best part of the first round. Just occasional good players 1-8 and 16+.

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All boils down to who is evaluating and making the pick...end of story.

Now can someone explain to me why the Falcunts and Deadskins are picking ahead of us, when we have the same record and lost to the Falcunts head to head twice and the Deadskins once?  Conference schedule for the Falcunts and Panthers were basically the same.  I may be dumb here, but this makes no sense.  How do we end up better than 2 teams that beat us with the same records?

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