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Icege

Changing the Narrative, Vol. 1: #9 vs. #16

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8 minutes ago, Gucceland said:

Falcons had 4 (2 against the Panthers) Division wins to the Panthers 2.  Both teams played the exact same opponents with the exception of the Packers (6 wins 1 tie) and Cardinals (3 wins) / Lions (6 wins and beat Packers twice) and the Seahawks (10 wins and beat Cardinals/Packers).  So, with that math, the Panthers clearly had the harder SOS and should be picking ahead of the Falcons.  It really makes no sense.  

I haven't looked far enough into the Redskins, but I believe that if the totals were added there, the Panthers have the harder schedule based on playing the Saints twice, Baltimore, Seahawks and Eagles.  

So I just reread the tiebreaker information.  The team that played opponents with the lowest winning percentage get the higher pick????  This makes absolutely no frucking sense???  Why would the team that played the easier schedule get the better draft pick, especially in a senecio where the said team beat the Panthers twice and are ahead of them in the Division!  Complete BS

 

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1 hour ago, Gucceland said:

So I just reread the tiebreaker information.  The team that played opponents with the lowest winning percentage get the higher pick????  This makes absolutely no frucking sense???  Why would the team that played the easier schedule get the better draft pick, especially in a senecio where the said team beat the Panthers twice and are ahead of them in the Division!  Complete BS

 

Think about this.  

We got 7 wins against a tough schedule. 

Atlanta got 7 wins against a weaker schedule. 

The obvious conclusion is we are better since we did the same  but against a tougher schedule. Weaker teams have priority in the draft. 

Head-to-head is not the answer. For example say you have 3 teams at 7-9 and each team went 1-1 against the other two. Who picks first among the 3?

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8 hours ago, Gucceland said:

Falcons had 4 (2 against the Panthers) Division wins to the Panthers 2.  Both teams played the exact same opponents with the exception of the Packers (6 wins 1 tie) and Cardinals (3 wins) / Lions (6 wins and beat Packers twice) and the Seahawks (10 wins and beat Cardinals/Packers).  So, with that math, the Panthers clearly had the harder SOS and should be picking ahead of the Falcons.  It really makes no sense.  

I haven't looked far enough into the Redskins, but I believe that if the totals were added there, the Panthers have the harder schedule based on playing the Saints twice, Baltimore, Seahawks and Eagles.  

You got it backwards. The Panthers did have the harder strength of schedule. (128 -122). That indicates that the Falcons were the lesser team and get the better draft pick.

YOu have to think opposite of how they determine standings/playoff seeding.

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My issue is the ability to take that 9th pick and trade it back to get to 16 and grab more stuff to fix the team. There in losing provided more options. I can see both sides though. Personally in a lost season I would want the best bang for my buck so logically the loss on paper would give me more. 

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6 minutes ago, SCMunnerlyn1 said:

My issue is the ability to take that 9th pick and trade it back to get to 16 and grab more stuff to fix the team. There in losing provided more options. I can see both sides though. Personally in a lost season I would want the best bang for my buck so logically the loss on paper would give me more. 

It is what it is and what it is is the 16th pick. What ifs aren't going to change that.

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As badly as we need DE help, and as good of a draft as this is to do it, I fear that if we don't take Dexter Lawrence we will regret it.

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Everyone seems to think we’re stuck at 16... teams are allowed to move up/down, yes it would’ve been nice to be sitting in the top 10 and not have to give something up to get there but we aren’t stuck at 16.

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1 hour ago, SCMunnerlyn1 said:

My issue is the ability to take that 9th pick and trade it back to get to 16 and grab more stuff to fix the team. There in losing provided more options. I can see both sides though. Personally in a lost season I would want the best bang for my buck so logically the loss on paper would give me more. 

Again, if the the earlier picks are so valuable, why didn't any of the non-playoff teams try to lose the last game?

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29 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Again, if the the earlier picks are so valuable, why didn't any of the non-playoff teams try to lose the last game?

Can't answer for other teams. Is just my opinion. I'd rather start at 9 and go back to 16 by way of trade to get more picks if i had a team with a lot of aging players.  Lets say for example if everybody has their original picks and im trading with the 16 slot. Ill swap my 1,3,5 for your 1,3,4. Its nothing crazy but a team that really wants that pick may be willing to do all kinds of things far more extreme than that. The higher the picks you have the more options you have. If a player starts slipping for instance a MLB (we obviously have a great one) 16 slot may say oh hell no slot 10 needs one too andgod damn it i want that one..boom thats when you take a team to the woodshed. 

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On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 12:42 PM, Icege said:

Throughout the final game of the season, a thorough shallacking of the division rival (and champion) Saints, many Huddlers bemoaned the impending victory. Ron Rivera's intelligence was questioned (albeit not exclusively due to this game), fans threw their hands up in despair, and everything came down to whether or not David Tepper would mirror their emotional instability. Not being able to pick at #9, the highest possible position the team could have selected from after week 17, but instead at #16 meant that the team was doomed to miss out on a top tier prospect.

Nevermind that the draft is a crapshoot and that the team is far and away from one player making the difference between a Super Bowl and another losing season. Let's analyze that sentiment. First and foremost, these same users have made it abundantly clear that a draft class is a complete and total failure without at least 3 "successful" picks. I think that seeing that number on paper, even the most belligerent would be willing to admit that just getting two players out of the draft would be great. With the first two rounds being the "easiest" to nail a pick in, let us look at the draft results from the last ten years.

The tables below shows the players selected at #9, #16, #40, and #47 as these are where Carolina is picking as well as would have picked should the team had lost on Sunday. Also included are the Panthers 1st and 2nd round picks.
 

Year #9 #16
2018 Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame (SF) Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech (BUF)
2017 John Ross, WR, Washington (CIN) Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama (BAL)
2016 Leonard Floyd, EDGE, UGA (CHI) Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio St (DET)
2015 Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (NYG) Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest (HOU)
2014 Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA (MIN) Zack Martin, G, Notre Dame (DAL)
2013 Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (NYJ) EJ Manuel, QB, Florida St (BUF)
2012 Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College (CAR) Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina (NYJ)
2011 Tyron Smith, OT, USC (DAL) Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue (WAS)
2010 CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson (BUF) Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech (TEN)
2009 BJ Raji, DT, Boston College (GB) Larry English, DE, NIU (SD)
     
Year #40 #47
2018 Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU (DEN) Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (ARI)
2017 Curtis Samuel, WR, Ohio St (CAR) Tyus Bowser, LB, Houston (BAL)
2016 Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma (NYG) Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio St (NO)
2015 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri (TEN) Eric Rowe, CB, Utah (PHI)
2014 Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU (DET) Trent Murphy, LB, Stanford (WAS)
2013 Tank Carradine, DE, Florida St (SF) Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon (BUF)
2012 Amini Silatolu, G, Midwestern St (CAR) Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah St (SEA)
2011 Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina (DAL) Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin (STL)
2010 Koa Misi, DE, Utah (MIA) Daryl Washington, LB, TCU, ARI
2009 Ron Bace, DT, Boston College (NE) Mike Mitchell, S, Ohio (OAK)
     
Year Carolina 1st Carolina 2nd
2018 DJ Moore (#24) Donte Jackson (#55)
2017 Christian McCaffrey (#8) Curtis Samuel (#40), Taylor Moton (#64)
2016 Vernon Butler (#30) James Bradberry (#62)
2015 Shaq Thompson (#26) Devin Funchess (#41)
2014 Kelvin Benjamin (#28) Kony Ealy (#60)
2013 Star Lotulelei (#14) Kawann Short (#44)
2012 Luke Kuechly (#9) Amini Silatolu (#40)
2011 Cam Newton (#1) None
2010 None Jimmy Clausen (#48)
2009 None Everette Brown (#43), Sherrod Martin (#59)

Looking at the first round, #9 and #16 are tied at 6-6. In the 2nd round, #40 & #47, #47 has been far and away much more successful of a spot to pick at. What I also find interesting is the breakdown in Carolina's draft picks. Looking at Gettleman's picks, his busts still produced at some level (with the exception of Vernon Butler). Hurney's picks, on the other hand, are feast or famine. We either get the greatness of Cam and Luke, or we get the likes of Jimmy Clausen, Everette Brown, and Sherrod Martin with our 2nd round picks because we've traded away the first rounders for the likes of Jeff Otah and the aforementioned Everette Brown. While Kony Ealy busted despite an MVP-esque Super Bowl and Funchess has never played to his size, Bradberry, KK (with the exception of this past season), Samuel, and Moton have all been great picks. Hurney did knock it out of the park with Donte Jackson, but that 4 year run of Silatolu, Clausen, Brown, and Martin make me want to vomit.

To note, the first pick of the 3rd round (#65) in 2011 for the Panthers was Terrell McClain, Igo's Pro Bowler prediction. You can add him to the list of Hurney second selection busts.

TLDR; 
1) Hurney is either going to pick somebody amazing or somebody that will have Gettleman haters wishing for the return of the fupa. 
2) 9th vs 16th doesn't matter while picking 47th in the last decade has worked out better than those picking at #40.
3) Huddlers that were belittling other fans for wanting to win were the real losers on Sunday.

You get pie for the thought put out in this post, the structure and the TLDR section.

 

However, your sample makes an assumption about the whole and it is erroneous.  Are you generally willing to stake your claim that later picks are better ones? Or, for a lesser position, that the difference is not significant enough to really be important?  Because I think that is a tough sell.

There may be an argument that teams picking later pick better because they have better management... a causal relationship.  However, the idea that there is no difference between the #9 and #16 pick, in any round, is in too much of a vacuum. 

In the end, meaningless games are meaningless.

Earlier picks are worth more.

Better players go earlier.

and...

Opinions are tough to change.

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Of course, I believe in finding truth above winning an argument.  I did a quick google search of 'scatter plot of pro-bowlers vs. pick position' and quickly stumbled upon the below:

Link - https://www.derp/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors

I remain open to being convinced, though, that the game had any real meaning.  Our 'collateral' to move up was reduced in the devaluation of our picks. That is, it is clear that picks in the top 100 are of significance.  We now have less ability to achieve the maximum number of selections in that range.

2018_05.16_Contributors.jpg

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So, in taking a look at the past 5 drafts I noticed a few different trends.  This data is players that made the pro-bowl for the past 5 years supplied by Wikipedia. 

- For immediate impact, your success rate is dramatically higher when drafting in the top 10 picks. 

- Players taken 11-32 begin to pick up steam 2-3 years out and have really hit their stride in years 3-5.

- Top 100 picks are at a premium and represent almost 80% of the pro-bowlers selected in the last 5 years.

2017              
1
1 1 Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett † DE 11 Pro Bowlers  
  1 6 New York Jets Jamal Adams † S 4 in top 11 36%
  1 10 Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes † QB 7 in top 100 64%
  1 11 New Orleans Saints Marshon Lattimore † CB    
  2 36 Arizona Cardinals Budda Baker † S    
  3 67 New Orleans Saints Alvin Kamara † RB    
  3 86 Kansas City Chiefs Kareem Hunt † RB    
  3* 105 Pittsburgh Steelers James Conner † RB    
  4 112 Chicago Bears Eddie Jackson † S    
  4 119 Chicago Bears Tarik Cohen † RB    
  5 146 San Francisco 49ers George Kittle † TE    
               
               
               
2016              
1
1 1 Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff † QB 16 Pro Bowlers  
  1 2 Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz † QB 5 in top 10 31%
  1 3 San Diego Chargers Joey Bosa † DE 12 in top 100 75%
  1 4 Dallas Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott † RB    
  1 5 Jacksonville Jaguars Jalen Ramsey † CB    
  1 17 Atlanta Falcons Keanu Neal † S    
  2 38 Miami Dolphins Xavien Howard † CB    
  2 47 New Orleans Saints Michael Thomas † WR    
  2 52 Atlanta Falcons Deion Jones † LB    
  3 64 Tennessee Titans Kevin Byard † S    
  3 69 Jacksonville Jaguars Yannick Ngakoue † DE    
  4 99 Cleveland Browns Joe Schobert † LB    
  4 117 Los Angeles Rams Pharoh Cooper † WR    
  4* 135 Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott † QB    
  5 150 Chicago Bears Jordan Howard † RB    
  5 165 Kansas City Chiefs Tyreek Hill † WR    
               
               
2015              
1
1 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston † QB 16 Pro Bowlers  
  1 4 Oakland Raiders Amari Cooper † WR 6 in top 10 38%
  1 5 Washington Redskins Brandon Scherff † OT 13 in top 100 81%
  1 6 New York Jets Leonard Williams † DE    
  1 8 Atlanta Falcons Vic Beasley † DE    
  1 10 St. Louis Rams Todd Gurley † RB    
  1 15 San Diego Chargers Melvin Gordon † RB    
   
  1 18 Kansas City Chiefs Marcus Peters † CB    
  2 33 New York Giants Landon Collins † S    
  2 43 Houston Texans Benardrick McKinney † LB    
  3 69 Seattle Seahawks Tyler Lockett † WR    
  3 86 Arizona Cardinals David Johnson † RB    
  3 88 Minnesota Vikings Danielle Hunter † DE    
  4 124 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kwon Alexander † LB    
  5 149 Miami Dolphins Jay Ajayi † RB    
  5* 172 Kansas City Chiefs D. J. Alexander † LB    
               
               
2014              
1 1 1 Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney † DE 21 pro bowlers  
  1 5 Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack † LB 5 in top 10 24%
  1 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mike Evans † WR 8 in 11-32 38%
  1 9 Minnesota Vikings Anthony Barr † LB 19 in top 100 90%
  1 10 Detroit Lions Eric Ebron † TE    
  1 11 Tennessee Titans Taylor Lewan † OT    
  1 12 New York Giants Odell Beckham † WR    
  1 13 St. Louis Rams Aaron Donald † DT    
  1 14 Chicago Bears Kyle Fuller † CB    
  1 15 Pittsburgh Steelers Ryan Shazier † LB    
  1 16 Dallas Cowboys Zack Martin † G    
  1 17 Baltimore Ravens C. J. Mosley † LB    
  1 32 Minnesota Vikings Teddy Bridgewater † QB    
  2 34 Dallas Cowboys DeMarcus Lawrence † DE    
  2 36 Oakland Raiders Derek Carr † QB    
  2 53 Green Bay Packers Davante Adams † WR    
  2 61 Jacksonville Jaguars Allen Robinson † WR    
  2 63 Miami Dolphins Jarvis Landry † WR    
  3 92 Carolina Panthers Trai Turner † G    
  4 103 Atlanta Falcons Devonta Freeman † RB    
  5 144 Jacksonville Jaguars Telvin Smith † LB    
               
               
2013              
1 1 1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher † OT 28 pro bowlers  
  1 4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson † OT 3 in top 10 11%
  1 5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah † DE 9 in 11-32 32%
  1 13 New York Jets Sheldon Richardson † DT 24 in top 100 86%
  1 18 San Francisco 49ers Eric Reid † S    
  1 20 Chicago Bears Kyle Long † G    
  1 21 Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Eifert † TE    
  1 22 Atlanta Falcons Desmond Trufant † CB    
  1 25 Minnesota Vikings Xavier Rhodes † CB    
  1 27 Houston Texans DeAndre Hopkins † WR    
  1 29 Minnesota Vikings Cordarrelle Patterson † WR    
  1 31 Dallas Cowboys Travis Frederick † C    
  2 35 Philadelphia Eagles Zach Ertz † TE    
  2 36 Detroit Lions Darius Slay † CB    
  2 44 Carolina Panthers Kawann Short † DT    
  2 48 Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell † RB    
  2 52 New England Patriots Jamie Collins † LB    
  2 61 Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy † RB    
  3 63 Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce † TE    
  3 65 Detroit Lions Larry Warford † G    
  3 69 Arizona Cardinals Tyrann Mathieu † CB    
  3 75 New Orleans Saints Terron Armstead † OT    
  3 76 San Diego Chargers Keenan Allen † WR    
  3 85 Washington Redskins Jordan Reed † TE    
  4 109 Green Bay Packers David Bakhtiari † OT    
  4* 130 Baltimore Ravens Kyle Juszczyk † FB    
  5 159 Green Bay Packers Micah Hyde † CB    
  6 181 Oakland Raiders Latavius Murray † RB    

 

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2 hours ago, SCMunnerlyn1 said:

Can't answer for other teams. Is just my opinion. I'd rather start at 9 and go back to 16 by way of trade to get more picks if i had a team with a lot of aging players.  Lets say for example if everybody has their original picks and im trading with the 16 slot. Ill swap my 1,3,5 for your 1,3,4. Its nothing crazy but a team that really wants that pick may be willing to do all kinds of things far more extreme than that. The higher the picks you have the more options you have. If a player starts slipping for instance a MLB (we obviously have a great one) 16 slot may say oh hell no slot 10 needs one too andgod damn it i want that one..boom thats when you take a team to the woodshed. 

You didn't answer the question. If the earlier picks were so valuable, why didn't one single team tank the final game?

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4 minutes ago, falconidae said:

You didn't answer the question. If the earlier picks were so valuable, why didn't one single team tank the final game?

I literally answered it in my first sentence. "I can't speak for other teams. This is my opinion"  All I can tell you is what I would've done. I likely would've run the ball all game long and coasted till the end and taken my better draft pick to make dealings easier for the draft. Again just my opinion. For all we know that could be considered taboo by Goodell " Don't shave points or obviously tank the game and piss off our sponsors and yada yada yada"

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2 hours ago, Lasus83. said:

Of course, I believe in finding truth above winning an argument.  I did a quick google search of 'scatter plot of pro-bowlers vs. pick position' and quickly stumbled upon the below:

Link - https://www.derp/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors

I remain open to being convinced, though, that the game had any real meaning.  Our 'collateral' to move up was reduced in the devaluation of our picks. That is, it is clear that picks in the top 100 are of significance.  We now have less ability to achieve the maximum number of selections in that range.

2018_05.16_Contributors.jpg

While folks here seem to be caught on the idea that thread is this saying that "#16 is the same as #9," that is far and away from what I am communicating.

The stance that I am presenting is that people reacting with vitriol towards the team and their fellow fans over the W is tremendously overblown. The difference in 7 picks in the top 20 is not going to be the difference between a successful season or a disappointing one for the Panthers next year. Rivera is an idiot for not putting people in position to succeed, not for trying to win a football game when losing meant that the team would have lost 5 in a row to NO and an unprecedented 8-loss finish to 6-10 in order for the team to pick 7 spots higher.

Looking at the players selected, along with players that the Panthers took when not picking from those spots, there is more than enough evidence to show that the team was not impacted as severely by the victory as made out by the rageaholics. To add, the draft is more than the first round and that 7 spot difference means even less.

A prospect's grade also does not necessarily reflect their abilities as much as it might their talent (good read here: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000679463/article/nfl-draft-why-traits-outweigh-production-in-grading-prospects).

I will never state that the #30 pick is more valuable than #1. I will, however, comfortably stand by the notion that the difference in prospects between 9 and 16 is minimal due to human error and lottery-esque results, and not worthy of the piss and vinegar that rained from the skies. Looking even further into the current situation with the team needing a pass rush and this class being DL heavy, we have even less reason to be concerned on that draft position.

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36 minutes ago, Icege said:

While folks here seem to be caught on the idea that thread is this saying that "#16 is the same as #9," that is far and away from what I am communicating.

The stance that I am presenting is that people reacting with vitriol towards the team and their fellow fans over the W is tremendously overblown. The difference in 7 picks in the top 20 is not going to be the difference between a successful season or a disappointing one for the Panthers next year. Rivera is an idiot for not putting people in position to succeed, not for trying to win a football game when losing meant that the team would have lost 5 in a row to NO and an unprecedented 8-loss finish to 6-10 in order for the team to pick 7 spots higher.

Looking at the players selected, along with players that the Panthers took when not picking from those spots, there is more than enough evidence to show that the team was not impacted as severely by the victory as made out by the rageaholics. To add, the draft is more than the first round and that 7 spot difference means even less.

A prospect's grade also does not necessarily reflect their abilities as much as it might their talent (good read here: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000679463/article/nfl-draft-why-traits-outweigh-production-in-grading-prospects).

I will never state that the #30 pick is more valuable than #1. I will, however, comfortably stand by the notion that the difference in prospects between 9 and 16 is minimal due to human error and lottery-esque results, and not worthy of the piss and vinegar that rained from the skies. Looking even further into the current situation with the team needing a pass rush and this class being DL heavy, we have even less reason to be concerned on that draft position.

2 things,

1. Vitriol - We are talking about a sport/team that has fans.  In the words of Colin Cowherd, 'fan' is short for 'fanatic'.  There are going to be fanatical, heated arguments even over the littlest things.  Sensibility exits when dealing with this kind of passion and especially with the propensity for it to be coupled with alcohol.  That is, think of this place as a bunch of 3 year olds and you'll sleep better.  I have a 3 year old.  I make a point not to argue with her because she will drag me down to her level and then beat me with experience.... wanna know how I know?  I've argued, and lost, more times than I would like to admit.

2. To the rest of your point - ...and I believe the root of the debate.  Is the anger over the drop in draft position warranted?  Well, insofar as anger will not change anything, no.  However, the drop is significant.  Maybe not singularly for round 1, but the value of the overall class is diminished.  You may have a crap shoot either way and it may be akin to the lottery, especially if you factor in the chances of injury or off the field issues, but the odds are better with higher picks.  In a vacuum, where we eliminate all of the aforementioned and have 'god' (for lack of a better example) pick the players, the players are better in the earlier rounds.  Please see my previous post on pro-bowlers.  Also, should you consider the picks commodities, the value of those selections is higher with #9 than #16 and that difference is very significant. 

We won a meaningless game and it means we are now driving a Mustang GT as opposed to a Mustang Shelby GT500.  The GT is nice, but boy that GT500 is a helluva lot nicer... and we are pissed because the wife made us buy the GT even though the GT500 only cost a little bit more. Hell, we were already losing... we had sorta grown used to it.  Now some good could come of it and we thought:  'what's one more game?'

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