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Icege

Changing the Narrative, Vol. 1: #9 vs. #16

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2 hours ago, Lasus83. said:

2 things,

1. Vitriol - We are talking about a sport/team that has fans.  In the words of Colin Cowherd, 'fan' is short for 'fanatic'.  There are going to be fanatical, heated arguments even over the littlest things.  Sensibility exits when dealing with this kind of passion and especially with the propensity for it to be coupled with alcohol.  That is, think of this place as a bunch of 3 year olds and you'll sleep better.  I have a 3 year old.  I make a point not to argue with her because she will drag me down to her level and then beat me with experience.... wanna know how I know?  I've argued, and lost, more times than I would like to admit.

2. To the rest of your point - ...and I believe the root of the debate.  Is the anger over the drop in draft position warranted?  Well, insofar as anger will not change anything, no.  However, the drop is significant.  Maybe not singularly for round 1, but the value of the overall class is diminished.  You may have a crap shoot either way and it may be akin to the lottery, especially if you factor in the chances of injury or off the field issues, but the odds are better with higher picks.  In a vacuum, where we eliminate all of the aforementioned and have 'god' (for lack of a better example) pick the players, the players are better in the earlier rounds.  Please see my previous post on pro-bowlers.  Also, should you consider the picks commodities, the value of those selections is higher with #9 than #16 and that difference is very significant. 

We won a meaningless game and it means we are now driving a Mustang GT as opposed to a Mustang Shelby GT500.  The GT is nice, but boy that GT500 is a helluva lot nicer... and we are pissed because the wife made us buy the GT even though the GT500 only cost a little bit more. Hell, we were already losing... we had sorta grown used to it.  Now some good could come of it and we thought:  'what's one more game?'

Note: Posting from the throne and having a bitch of a time moving back and forth from text field to quote (the dark theme giveth and the dark theme taketh) so this reply might be scatter brained. If not, woohoo!

1. I tend to gloss over most of the childish antics on the board as my own 3yr old shows more patience and understanding than some of the polarized and over-stimulated posters we have. While the heat of the moment certainly does explain their behaviour, it certainly does not excuse it. The schism from the final game was more contentious amongst posters than usual, to the point where folks were attacking one another relentlessly simply because somebody wanted to win rather than lose. While we see this every game day, the disappointment that was the season and rumours of Hurney/Rivera being retained drove a lot more folks a lot further.

On an unrelated note, I think those L's to your little one are from her innate feminine ability to somehow convince you that you were wrong when you said that the bathroom fan needs to be on (meanwhile, my son was convinced once he smelled the hate crime that I've committed in here). :crying:

2. Higher pick would mean higher trade value, yes, but it does not necessarily create an immediate trade in the team's favor. In theory, it also means that we should have our pick of the litter, but as you mentioned there is no crystal ball that will tell us whether or not it will work out. The difference between 9 and 16, in this class imo, is the difference between buying a car with Waze on board rather than having to use the phone app. There are teams in front of Carolina that are trying to fill other areas aside from the DL. Call me crazy, but I dont see the 15 teams selecting before Carolina to all need a pass rusher. Some will, yea, and some will even take them based on value, but with the depth of the position group that impact is drastically reduced.

If we went from a top 5 pick to 16, ok, yea, be disappointed af.

Also, I know lots of folks have referenced the frequency of Pro Bowlers earlier in the draft. While this is true, it is not exactly a measurement that shows we should be frustrated at winning. It took TD forever to be recognized, and while CMC was the #8 pick he was not selected for the Pro Bowl this past season. The 2017 draft also had 3 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd rd, one less than the 1st rd and 2 more than the 2nd. The theory is there, yes, but not the reality. Therefore, Huddlers acting like this is something worth being an assclown over is ridiculous.

I completely lost my train of thought midway thru that last paragraph, but should I regain that stream of conscious I'll add. I appreciate the civilized back and forth!

 

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1 hour ago, Icege said:

Note: Posting from the throne and having a bitch of a time moving back and forth from text field to quote (the dark theme giveth and the dark theme taketh) so this reply might be scatter brained. If not, woohoo!

1. I tend to gloss over most of the childish antics on the board as my own 3yr old shows more patience and understanding than some of the polarized and over-stimulated posters we have. While the heat of the moment certainly does explain their behaviour, it certainly does not excuse it. The schism from the final game was more contentious amongst posters than usual, to the point where folks were attacking one another relentlessly simply because somebody wanted to win rather than lose. While we see this every game day, the disappointment that was the season and rumours of Hurney/Rivera being retained drove a lot more folks a lot further.

On an unrelated note, I think those L's to your little one are from her innate feminine ability to somehow convince you that you were wrong when you said that the bathroom fan needs to be on (meanwhile, my son was convinced once he smelled the hate crime that I've committed in here). :crying:

2. Higher pick would mean higher trade value, yes, but it does not necessarily create an immediate trade in the team's favor. In theory, it also means that we should have our pick of the litter, but as you mentioned there is no crystal ball that will tell us whether or not it will work out. The difference between 9 and 16, in this class imo, is the difference between buying a car with Waze on board rather than having to use the phone app. There are teams in front of Carolina that are trying to fill other areas aside from the DL. Call me crazy, but I dont see the 15 teams selecting before Carolina to all need a pass rusher. Some will, yea, and some will even take them based on value, but with the depth of the position group that impact is drastically reduced.

If we went from a top 5 pick to 16, ok, yea, be disappointed af.

Also, I know lots of folks have referenced the frequency of Pro Bowlers earlier in the draft. While this is true, it is not exactly a measurement that shows we should be frustrated at winning. It took TD forever to be recognized, and while CMC was the #8 pick he was not selected for the Pro Bowl this past season. The 2017 draft also had 3 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd rd, one less than the 1st rd and 2 more than the 2nd. The theory is there, yes, but not the reality. Therefore, Huddlers acting like this is something worth being an assclown over is ridiculous.

I completely lost my train of thought midway thru that last paragraph, but should I regain that stream of conscious I'll add. I appreciate the civilized back and forth!

 

I concur on the civilized back and forth.

I suppose I defend the fanaticism because I sometimes fall victim to it. The investment, emotional and financial, that I have in this team is boarderline committment worthy. None of that is an acceptable excuse, as you say, and when level heads prevail apologies are often in order.

 

The point I am hung up on is that I saw no meaning in the win. We did not beat the Saints in any more way than we would have if the game was played in September. In september, I don't care about wins, I care about seeing young players and depth players. I care about starters getting in rythem. Even the latter was irrelevant in this game.

The only things at stake were pride and the draft pick. 

I like beating the saints just as much as anyone (except the falcons and maybe pats), but not at the potential cost.

 

I do concede your original point. The anger expressed towards one another was juvenile. 

Time to move on.

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:11 PM, stbugs said:

\I’d rather have 9 because there will be a higher bust % as the picks get higher and making a great pick at 16 is harder.

Personally, I would rather have pick #32, assuming it didn't come via trade.  :)

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Using historical picks to decide what success we will have makes little sense.  It isn't the position you pick as much as who is doing the picking. And honestly how long are we going to keep beating this dead horse. 

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Fun hasn't started yet

just wait until 2 years if the Panthers draft a bust (Vernon Butler) and the guy(s) drafted at 9-15 and 17-19 is an All pro

watch the comments then

Got the feeling 9 VS 16 is going to be a thread topic for a long time around here

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:03 PM, Carolina Cajun said:

Main takeaway is that gettleman fuged us hard in the draft from 2014-2016.  Not a single one will get a second contract from us.

well it is in fact the truth...just saying

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First of all, how do you build a winning culture if you ask players to give less than 100%? Regardless of current record and playoff status and against a divisional foe.  What the Saints or any other team does isn't our issue.   You play who is on the field but to outright ask them to tank is counterproductive what you are trying to build within your organization.

Secondly, if we had to "tank" for draft position, to me the only acceptable tanking, it would be for a top 5 pick.  As the OP noted quality players, even better players can be had between 9 and 16.  While they aren't necessarily franchise players they most likely will be solid pros.  I can't speak exactly for the OP but from my take he is trying to show that you are going to get a talented player at 16 as you would 9.  

Just like us teams have holes to fill and a great player could slide well into the 20s because his position doesn't meet any teams top needs. AKA Aaron Rodgers.

For all those that bitch about Hurney and Gettleman,  I will say this. Hurney has nailed every first round pick.  Even when we traded away to get Otah.  He was a solid player until he gave up on football. And in comparison to Gettleman it isn't even close. I will take Hurney's first round pick and believe it will help the team. Gettleman, not so much. If he does as well as he did last year.  I think he'll do ok with 2019 draft.  (though some will bitch about every player drafted).

BOTTOM LINE. YOU DON'T TANK IF YOU ARE TRYING TO BUILD A WINNING CULTURE.  END OF STORY!!!!

 

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2 hours ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

First of all, how do you build a winning culture if you ask players to give less than 100%? Regardless of current record and playoff status and against a divisional foe.  What the Saints or any other team does isn't our issue.   You play who is on the field but to outright ask them to tank is counterproductive what you are trying to build within your organization.

Secondly, if we had to "tank" for draft position, to me the only acceptable tanking, it would be for a top 5 pick.  As the OP noted quality players, even better players can be had between 9 and 16.  While they aren't necessarily franchise players they most likely will be solid pros.  I can't speak exactly for the OP but from my take he is trying to show that you are going to get a talented player at 16 as you would 9.  

Just like us teams have holes to fill and a great player could slide well into the 20s because his position doesn't meet any teams top needs. AKA Aaron Rodgers.

For all those that bitch about Hurney and Gettleman,  I will say this. Hurney has nailed every first round pick.  Even when we traded away to get Otah.  He was a solid player until he gave up on football. And in comparison to Gettleman it isn't even close. I will take Hurney's first round pick and believe it will help the team. Gettleman, not so much. If he does as well as he did last year.  I think he'll do ok with 2019 draft.  (though some will bitch about every player drafted).

BOTTOM LINE. YOU DON'T TANK IF YOU ARE TRYING TO BUILD A WINNING CULTURE.  END OF STORY!!!!

 

Plenty of teams do it in the NBA. Tanking is talked about and shown to happen all the time there. For whatever reason its taboo in the NFL. Winning some game that is gonna hurt your team in the long vs getting a better player who could help you into the playoffs next year? That game was worth more to the panthers franchise losing than winning. your not building a winning culture by beating the saint 3rd string. you think winning a game without your starting qb vs there now released qb is helping? Hurny can nail every pick from now til he retires that doesn't mean they guy he could have had say at 9 is the same as the guy at 16. This is a really dumb debate to be having. derwin james went around 16-17 was pro bowl and while we were picking what 24-25 dj moore was good but not pro bowl. the same applies to to 10 picks vs picks 11-20.  The 76ers in the NBA openly tanked and now have arguably the best roster outside of golden state. there are in the title hunt because they did tank. 

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We should trade down to pick #47. The results over the years make that look like a great place to get a player

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3 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Plenty of teams do it in the NBA. Tanking is talked about and shown to happen all the time there. For whatever reason its taboo in the NFL. Winning some game that is gonna hurt your team in the long vs getting a better player who could help you into the playoffs next year? That game was worth more to the panthers franchise losing than winning. your not building a winning culture by beating the saint 3rd string. you think winning a game without your starting qb vs there now released qb is helping? Hurny can nail every pick from now til he retires that doesn't mean they guy he could have had say at 9 is the same as the guy at 16. This is a really dumb debate to be having. derwin james went around 16-17 was pro bowl and while we were picking what 24-25 dj moore was good but not pro bowl. the same applies to to 10 picks vs picks 11-20.  The 76ers in the NBA openly tanked and now have arguably the best roster outside of golden state. there are in the title hunt because they did tank. 

This isn't the NBA.  So much easier to tank with 5 guys than 22. Furthermore the talent drop off from 1-5 in the NBA draft is much worse than the NFL.  As the opening post indicated that between 9 and 16 you can get a player of equal or greater talent at 16 as you can at 9.  Once again as the OP indicated, over the past 12 years you have had better talent at 16 as you did 9.  6 each way or 50% of the time.  Obviously you have a couple more players to choose from but when the talking heads say Sweat will fall to 15 or 16 that isn't a bad choice.

Comparing Derwin James to DJ Moore is a bad example because they are totally different positions.   You also have far too many veterans at the WR position that would be Pro Bowlers over a rookie regardless of how good a season he had. You could also argue that had our coaching staff used Moore from day one he would have been in the conversation.  

It also should be noted that the 76ers tanked for years before they got good.  As a GM and HC you wouldn't have a job if you did it over a course of many years in the NFL.  You can use the Browns as a prime example.  How many coaches have they had while tanking for a draft pick?

Lastly because I feel tanking is not the way to go in the NFL doesn't mean it's a dumb debate because you feel it is a viable move. 

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52 minutes ago, DaveThePanther2008 said:

This isn't the NBA.  So much easier to tank with 5 guys than 22. Furthermore the talent drop off from 1-5 in the NBA draft is much worse than the NFL.  As the opening post indicated that between 9 and 16 you can get a player of equal or greater talent at 16 as you can at 9.  Once again as the OP indicated, over the past 12 years you have had better talent at 16 as you did 9.  6 each way or 50% of the time.  Obviously you have a couple more players to choose from but when the talking heads say Sweat will fall to 15 or 16 that isn't a bad choice.

Comparing Derwin James to DJ Moore is a bad example because they are totally different positions.   You also have far too many veterans at the WR position that would be Pro Bowlers over a rookie regardless of how good a season he had. You could also argue that had our coaching staff used Moore from day one he would have been in the conversation.  

It also should be noted that the 76ers tanked for years before they got good.  As a GM and HC you wouldn't have a job if you did it over a course of many years in the NFL.  You can use the Browns as a prime example.  How many coaches have they had while tanking for a draft pick?

Lastly because I feel tanking is not the way to go in the NFL doesn't mean it's a dumb debate because you feel it is a viable move. 

I had my response typed with literally all of this only to see that you already mentioned all of the points I was going to make (quality will be there at 16, NBA roster size vs. NFL roster size, NBA bust rate vs. NFL bust rate, would the rather have James than Moore, length of careers in the NBA vs. NFL).

To show my appreciation, here's a taco: :Taco_Emoji_42x42: 

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1 hour ago, Icege said:

I had my response typed with literally all of this only to see that you already mentioned all of the points I was going to make (quality will be there at 16, NBA roster size vs. NFL roster size, NBA bust rate vs. NFL bust rate, would the rather have James than Moore, length of careers in the NBA vs. NFL).

To show my appreciation, here's a taco: :Taco_Emoji_42x42: 

Not fair to mention taco to a man sitting in the middle of the desert....lol (of course my taco, in my mind doesn't look like that :shades:)

Thanks for the props

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How long will this be a topic?? Can we get a timeline when this poo ends??

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31 minutes ago, Sub Zero said:

How long will this be a topic?? Can we get a timeline when this poo ends??

Are you familiar with the concept of the heat death of the universe?

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3 hours ago, Sub Zero said:

How long will this be a topic?? Can we get a timeline when this poo ends??

It won't end.  If whoever we pick at 16 doesn't produce from the very first preseason game, the "glad we won that last game crowd" will be thrilled and continue the one line remark throughout next season.  If whoever we pick at 16 sets the NFL on fire, it will be replaced with "glad we won that last game" except it won't be sarcastic.  

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I posted this somewhere else, can't remember. Historically after the top 5, the NFL draft is a crap shoot with basically 50-50 odds of hitting on a player from pick 6-32. The most successful range after the top 5 is actually 10-17 with around 55%. 

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