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Panthero

Confused about moving to a 3-4

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2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

He's been having middle of the pack seasons at best since then. The phrase you're looking for is "not living up to the contract."

Let's just say I strongly disagree with your short sighted, inaccurate assessment.

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4 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Two things come to mind---KK needs Star or maybe Poe is a bad influence.

NT is the spot  that nobody is talking about but we need an upgrade over Poe. 

I want an Edge OLB, NT, S, and CB for Christmas in April.  (OG, OT on offense)

If we need an upgrade over Poe they shouldn't be paying him what they are.

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3 hours ago, pantherclaw said:

Let's just say I strongly disagree with your short sighted, inaccurate assessment.

Before the contract, KK totaled in (2013-2015) T: 74 As: 50 Sck: 16 FF: 5 PDef: 7 Games: 48 Started: 25

After the contract, KK totaled in (2015-2018) T: 86 As: 60 Sck: 16.5 FF: 4 PDef: 5 Games: 46 Started: 46

The figures are close to the same, until you look at how much more field time KK received since the contract was signed. Now he did have a monster year in 2015 and was a big part of us getting to the Superb Owl and his contract reflected that impact. Since then, each season, he's played like a decent DT to a good one. He has, however, been getting paid like one of the premier ones.

My take is, that like happens all over the league each year, we paid a guy based on one year's success and we're seeing that particular season may have been an outlier. Is KK bad? No, not at all. Is he as good as he was on 2015, no, not at all. Is he worth one of the top salaries for the position? Not seeing the disruption. Not seeing the fear in opponents eyes anymore. Seeing a lot of tackles registered for flopping on a pile and a couple of gimmes in the sack total. At 70% of his salary, both parties would be on the money.

He's not Albert Haynesworth bad, but he's not playing like that 2015 KK that we saw, either (and that guy would have been in the talks for a gold jacket if he had kept up that pace).

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On 4/3/2019 at 10:50 PM, panthers55 said:

The problem with a 3-4 in general is difficulty stopping the run. Now compound the problem with undersized linemen and a team like Dallas would pound it down your throat all day. No that would be a bad idea unless you used it as a subpackage on strictly passing downs.

The idea was prefaced with the notion that it was a theory (or hypothesis). You would think that size would constantly dominate smaller players but smaller doesn't mean weaker. There is likely a bell curve shape rather than direct linear regression in the relationship between weight and strength. Smaller guys who are faster and comparatively stronger for their size could fare decently in a straight up wrestling match that is trench play in a 3-4 defense. 

 

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1 minute ago, CPcavedweller said:

The idea was prefaced with the notion that it was a theory (or hypothesis). You would think that size would constantly dominate smaller players but smaller doesn't mean weaker. There is likely a bell curve shape rather than direct linear regression in the relationship between weight and strength. Smaller guys who are faster and comparatively stronger for their size could fare decently in a straight up wrestling match that is trench play in a 3-4 defense. 

 

First you can't say that there isn't a huge difference between college and the pros in terms of technique or strength. There is. Secondly, comparatively stronger has little  bearing if you are stopping the run. Being strong for a little guy doesn't help when you get doubled teamed  by two offensive linemen who weight 600 lbs collectively. You need a nose tackle that can root in and be relatively immovable plain and simple. DEs in a 3-4 need to be big and strong. Guys like Von Miller are not DE/DTs but OLBs who rush the passer most of the time.  And sure there can be an exception to any rule but you don't change or ignore the rule because it is only true 90% of the time.

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35 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

First you can't say that there isn't a huge difference between college and the pros in terms of technique or strength. There is. Secondly, comparatively stronger has little  bearing if you are stopping the run. Being strong for a little guy doesn't help when you get doubled teamed  by two offensive linemen who weight 600 lbs collectively. You need a nose tackle that can root in and be relatively immovable plain and simple. DEs in a 3-4 need to be big and strong. Guys like Von Miller are not DE/DTs but OLBs who rush the passer most of the time.  And sure there can be an exception to any rule but you don't change or ignore the rule because it is only true 90% of the time.

Little guy is relative. I'm not talking about a 290 NT at the NFL Level. In College football you can get away with a 260 lb DE and 920 lb NT in a 3-4 defense. What i'm saying is that comparatively smaller but just as strong. Being an immovable object at 300 lbs and 340 lbs isn't all that different if the 300 lb guy is stronger and faster than the 340 lbs guy. Von Miller is 250 lbs which is around what App State's DE's are in their 3-4. Obviously when you create a ratio of size to opposition size, that weight would need to be higher at the NFL. But you can also go up in size without sacrificing athleticism at the NFL level.

If you maintain the ratio of the size of the D-Line to the Offensive Line from the NCAA to the NFL, the results should remain the same. In a league predicated on passing the ball, having speed at the first level with more coverage ability in the second level, which a 3-4 provides, is very important. 

But again, this is just a theory based on analytics that I have no way of evaluating in reality because NFL is slow to adapt to changes that occur at the college level despite offenses slowly evolving into the Air Raid concepts. I'd like to see my plan put to the test at the NFL level because it would allow for more speed off the edge and equal blend of speed/strength in the middle of the defense. Discounting someone because of their weight, despite other measurables, doesn't make since because what is holding a guy in place at the point of attack is the friction of the turf and cleats and the ability of someone to leverage their body position. 

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59 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

Little guy is relative. I'm not talking about a 290 NT at the NFL Level. In College football you can get away with a 260 lb DE and 920 lb NT in a 3-4 defense. What i'm saying is that comparatively smaller but just as strong. Being an immovable object at 300 lbs and 340 lbs isn't all that different if the 300 lb guy is stronger and faster than the 340 lbs guy. Von Miller is 250 lbs which is around what App State's DE's are in their 3-4. Obviously when you create a ratio of size to opposition size, that weight would need to be higher at the NFL. But you can also go up in size without sacrificing athleticism at the NFL level.

If you maintain the ratio of the size of the D-Line to the Offensive Line from the NCAA to the NFL, the results should remain the same. In a league predicated on passing the ball, having speed at the first level with more coverage ability in the second level, which a 3-4 provides, is very important. 

But again, this is just a theory based on analytics that I have no way of evaluating in reality because NFL is slow to adapt to changes that occur at the college level despite offenses slowly evolving into the Air Raid concepts. I'd like to see my plan put to the test at the NFL level because it would allow for more speed off the edge and equal blend of speed/strength in the middle of the defense. Discounting someone because of their weight, despite other measurables, doesn't make since because what is holding a guy in place at the point of attack is the friction of the turf and cleats and the ability of someone to leverage their body position. 

It it worked it would be tried already. The NFL is a copy cat league. So if you are right it won't be long until someone tries what you suggest. 

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20 hours ago, panthers55 said:

It it worked it would be tried already. The NFL is a copy cat league. So if you are right it won't be long until someone tries what you suggest. 

It does work at the college level. App, from what I can tell (and I watch a lot of G5 and P5 football), has been the primary school utilizing speed over size in the first two levels of the defense. That is done mostly out of necessity but it has worked since they moved from FCS to FBS. However, now that the staff and that defense is going to Louisville, you are going to see the true ratio of defensive weight to offensive weight in the trenches grow closer while outside linebackers likely still remain small-ish to allow for coverage ability. If it works as well at Louisville within 3 years (transition periods tend to take time, particularly with how poor Petrino was with roster building) as it did at App, I'd expect popularity to increase. 

Because of where it's coming from I expect you may see it within 6 to 8 seasons, if at all. It worked at App against Georgia and Tennessee. This season they will be running the same defensive style with new coaching and have opportunities against UNC and USC so we will see how that goes. Georgia Southern and Georgia State run the same defense now with the same style of player so we will see how the Nate Woody Tree ( one season at Georgia Tech because Paul Johnson retired, the defense takes at least two seasons to develop when changing from 4-3 to 3-4) develops. 

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5 hours ago, CPcavedweller said:

It does work at the college level. App, from what I can tell (and I watch a lot of G5 and P5 football), has been the primary school utilizing speed over size in the first two levels of the defense. That is done mostly out of necessity but it has worked since they moved from FCS to FBS. However, now that the staff and that defense is going to Louisville, you are going to see the true ratio of defensive weight to offensive weight in the trenches grow closer while outside linebackers likely still remain small-ish to allow for coverage ability. If it works as well at Louisville within 3 years (transition periods tend to take time, particularly with how poor Petrino was with roster building) as it did at App, I'd expect popularity to increase. 

Because of where it's coming from I expect you may see it within 6 to 8 seasons, if at all. It worked at App against Georgia and Tennessee. This season they will be running the same defensive style with new coaching and have opportunities against UNC and USC so we will see how that goes. Georgia Southern and Georgia State run the same defense now with the same style of player so we will see how the Nate Woody Tree ( one season at Georgia Tech because Paul Johnson retired, the defense takes at least two seasons to develop when changing from 4-3 to 3-4) develops. 

Lots of text and you missed the point. It hasn't worked in the NFL due to differences in the college and pro game in terms of players and technique. 

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On 4/4/2019 at 7:03 AM, Panthero said:

Luckily that nose tackle can be found in the 4-7 round. Guy from USF or Syracuse are both 330 plus and one will be there in the sixth. Both could replace Butler and eventually Poe once his dead cap hit goes down. Too rich to cut this year. 2020 seems likely though. We'd save 10 mil, and eat 3.3 regardless of pre or post June 1st deadline. 

I go early wouldn't mind taking two this year, cut butler now, then cut poe in 2020. 

There's another guy out of LSU that should be taken a look at. He played both Nose Tackle in 3-4, and Nose Tackle 4-3, last year. He could be a great pick-up in the 5th round.

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On 4/5/2019 at 3:46 AM, Khyber53 said:

Before the contract, KK totaled in (2013-2015) T: 74 As: 50 Sck: 16 FF: 5 PDef: 7 Games: 48 Started: 25

After the contract, KK totaled in (2015-2018) T: 86 As: 60 Sck: 16.5 FF: 4 PDef: 5 Games: 46 Started: 46

The figures are close to the same, until you look at how much more field time KK received since the contract was signed. Now he did have a monster year in 2015 and was a big part of us getting to the Superb Owl and his contract reflected that impact. Since then, each season, he's played like a decent DT to a good one. He has, however, been getting paid like one of the premier ones.

My take is, that like happens all over the league each year, we paid a guy based on one year's success and we're seeing that particular season may have been an outlier. Is KK bad? No, not at all. Is he as good as he was on 2015, no, not at all. Is he worth one of the top salaries for the position? Not seeing the disruption. Not seeing the fear in opponents eyes anymore. Seeing a lot of tackles registered for flopping on a pile and a couple of gimmes in the sack total. At 70% of his salary, both parties would be on the money.

He's not Albert Haynesworth bad, but he's not playing like that 2015 KK that we saw, either (and that guy would have been in the talks for a gold jacket if he had kept up that pace).

Maybe that is a typo but Short signed his contract in 2017. He has played under his original contract 2013, 2014, 2015,  2016. His big contract was only 2017 and 2018.

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1 hour ago, Moo Daeng said:

Maybe that is a typo but Short signed his contract in 2017. He has played under his original contract 2013, 2014, 2015,  2016. His big contract was only 2017 and 2018.

Actually I was just trying to split the years evenly. If you go the other way, it doesn't look that different. 

2013-2016: G: 64 T:104 A: 75 Sack: 22 PDef: 10

2017-2018: G:30 T: 56 A: 35 Sack: 10.5 PDef: 2

Basically, if you remove his monster year in 2015 you get the stats for a decent, but not spectacular DT. Honestly, there are times when I thought we'd kept the wrong guy between him and Star.

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My take is that you have more guys coming out of college now who are athletic enough to play 3-4 edge than there has ever been before, but still roughly the same amount of teams who actually want them. Supply & Demand people, we are getting ahead of it.

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