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thebigcat

$3.68 million for Gano or $480k for Slye

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9 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Doesn't matter what you did in college. Will Grier was a Heisman candidate. Did you see him out there tonight?

Can you name an NFL QB that lit the world on for the first two preseason games of their career?

Newton didn’t. Favre didn’t. Brady didn’t, Manning didn’t. 

Griers stats are about the same as all of them

Jeesh give the kid a chance to develop 

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College Stats for Gostkowski (Patriots kicker)

 FG % over 4 years: 76.1  

 XP % over 4 years: 96.4

Joey Slye Stats:

FG %: 72.2

XP %: 98.3

Very similar to Slye's career stats at VT, and Slye had more attempts in college.  Sometimes guys just have it click in the NFL and start to be very good kickers...it wouldn't be that much of a stretch to run with him over Gano if he continues to prove himself in pre-season.  

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Unless Gano has a serious injury, he's our kicker. The better Slye does maybe the better draft pick we can get in a trade (5th or 6th?) but at least a 7th. 

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5 hours ago, J.B. said:

Can you name an NFL QB that lit the world on for the first two preseason games of their career?

Newton didn’t. Favre didn’t. Brady didn’t, Manning didn’t. 

Griers stats are about the same as all of them

Jeesh give the kid a chance to develop 

I'm a fan of Grier and believe he will develop into a good NFL QB.

That said, to answer your question, Daniel Jones is off to a pretty rip-roaring start after 2 preseason games!

5-for-5 w/ 0 INT's and a 158.3 QBR in game 1....11-for-14 w/ 0 INT's and a 138.4 QBR in game 2!   He did have 2 quick early fumbles in the 2nd game but settled in nicely and moved the offense well.  I believe he will be an All-Pro in the future.

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Pick one of the two and try to work out a trade deal to a team needing a kicker .  We gave away Butker for not even a Bo biscuit 

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18 minutes ago, catnip said:

Pick one of the two and try to work out a trade deal to a team needing a kicker .  We gave away Butker for not even a Bo biscuit 

   To be fair, it’s hard to expect to get anything for a PK that teams knew you had to get rid of and was just picked in 7th 3-4 months beforehand. 

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12 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The track record of WVU skill position players speaks for itself. I understand we had to do something to address the QB position with Cam's shoulder issues, but I felt all along that we were enamored with the wrong prospect.

We may well have been. And we probably took a QB too early imo anyway. But regardless, it’s only the second preseason game for a rookie learning the hardest position in the game. Can’t really judge the kid off that. 

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18 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Meanwhile, Grier will make $1.3M this season. Imagine for a moment being as horrible at your job as Grier was tonight and still pocketing $1.3M no matter what. LOL! Sweet gig!

I'd take that over an overconfident starter who sees ghosts but gets by with physical skill over intelligence any day. Grier can learn.second preseason game.

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1 minute ago, brandon_87 said:

I'd take that over an overconfident starter who sees ghosts but gets by with physical skill over intelligence any day. Grier can learn.second preseason game.

Are you referring to Cam? If so, for real LOLOLOLOL

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30 minutes ago, brandon_87 said:

I'd take that over an overconfident starter who sees ghosts but gets by with physical skill over intelligence any day. Grier can learn.second preseason game.

Image result for its time to stop posting

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31 minutes ago, brandon_87 said:

I'd take that over an overconfident starter who sees ghosts but gets by with physical skill over intelligence any day. Grier can learn.second preseason game.

If this isn't satire you should punch yourself in the dick.

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I've lurked here for years and never posted, but if I have to relive the Butker/Gano preseason nonsense I'm going to go insane, so here goes. Everyone on here loves to complain about how Hurney 1.0 sent us to cap hell, but usually those same people will be the first to advocate for bold roster moves that aren't exactly what you'd describe as risk-averse (sign AB, etc.). So let's actually look at the costs and benefits of a potential roster move and see how the numbers shake out.

Here's a quick breakdown of where we're at with Gano, and then you all decide if dumping him for an unproven rookie and eating millions in guaranteed money is a good idea:

gano5.PNG.efe0fb86588c4b85db6fa4372a423d0c.PNG

The tables above show Gano's career in Carolina versus all NFL kickers during the same interval. The adjusted percentage in the far right column combines field goals and extra points and weights them accordingly (FGs worth 3, XPs worth 1). As you can see, Gano has been an above-average NFL kicker during his career here. His worst performance was during the 2016 season, which undoubtedly contributed to the Butker controversy during the 2017 preseason. Since that season, however, he has been one of the best kickers in the NFL. Let's take a look at Joey Slye:

slye3.PNG.0e9db6bef64cefaa0987f9b5a1df03d6.PNG

Obviously the only data we have is Slye's body of work at Virginia Tech, which was...uneven, to say the least. Slye's best season in college was worse than Gano's worst season as a Panther (playing against the most elite competition). That's not to say Slye cannot succeed in the NFL and won't be a good kicker. He very well may have a great career and be Butker 2.0. But as the general manager of a team, you can't afford to make business decisions based on a great story or out of frustration with a high performing athlete who isn't living up to their contract. And you certainly shouldn't make a rash decision and ignore the odds simply because you saw the odds go against you on a previous call you made (Butker, which was also the correct call by the way). Especially when you consider Slye's college performance and how the typical NFL kicker's college performance maps to their NFL output. Here's Gano at FSU:

gano4.PNG.c46434b2f95f52bf3877daafdbc21c60.PNG

Obviously this is a small sample size, as Gano was exclusively a punter for his first three seasons at Florida State (something else that makes him a valuable asset to have if Palardy were to go down), but it's pretty clear that Gano's college performance was substantially better than Slye's. Again, this is college, so it's not the whole story, but players that are marginal talents in college that end up being outstanding performers in the NFL are extremely rare. History has shown over and over again that past results are by far the best advance indicator of future performance; Butker is an outlier in this regard.

Of course, there's still the business aspect to consider. Is Gano's value relative to his cap hit enough to rule out replacing him with a younger, less experienced kicker on a cheaper contract? The story here is a little less clear; Gano's contract is undoubtedly expensive, and places him comfortably within the ranks of the top ten highest paid NFL kickers. While his past two seasons have been exemplary, that doesn't necessarily justify paying him what he's being paid. Unfortunately, that's a sunk cost, so there's no use in relitigating that decision, but in the interest of fairness here is Gano's standing in terms of relative contract value:

rank2.PNG.3ddeb130c07db6f4b89e4d49d872a65c.PNG

These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as they are only based on results from the 2018 season, and there a number of kickers included who had a high kicking percentage but were not particularly high scorers. It's difficult to adjust for this without unfairly penalizing high-percentage kickers with average kicking volume. The important thing (in my view) is that Gano performs above the average for NFL kickers, his recent performance has been outstanding, and he is compensated inside a pay-band that other comparable high-performing kickers are compensated in.

Now, let's contemplate cutting or trading Gano; I don't think a trade is very likely, as the most probable trade targets would be successful teams already close to their cap limit that would get a higher ROA from adding a good kicker to an already winning team. These teams would likely want to target deficiencies at other positions for improvement that would offer an even higher ROA from what little cap space they have remaining. Additionally, analyzing the risk/returns of a potential trade in this context isn't very useful without knowing the other pieces involved. We could absolutely get good value from trading Gano, and if I were GM I would never hang up the phone on someone willing to make an offer, it would just depend on the deal. So for those reasons, let's just look at a scenario where we cut Gano and keep Slye, which is the most likely scenario in which Slye ends up as our kicker this year (aside from a catastrophic preseason Gano injury):

comp1.PNG.0fe4c35779a4ac771ed8e249c6580a5c.PNG

If we were to extrapolate Slye's college performance to the NFL (which, in my opinion, is being extremely generous), and then assume we were to give Slye the average NFL contract for a kicker after this year, then we're looking at giving up ~15% in FG kicking accuracy for only $600k in cap savings this year (~$3mm over three years). Realistically, we'd be hitting the market for a kicker again next year after such a poor performance, with nothing to show for cutting Gano aside from $600k in cap savings and bad kicking in year one, and then two more years of dead money after that.

If we assume that Slye performs in line with the average NFL kicker (e.g., a Ryan Succop or Greg Zuerlein), then he'd still be worse than Gano, with only the same marginal cap savings to show for the move.

And if we were to assume the most optimistic case, which is that Slye performs in line with a top NFL kicker, such as a Harrison Butker (sorry), and receives a contract commensurate with that performance, then we still only see marginal improvements in performance and minimal cap savings over the three-year timeframe. At the end of the day, on a risk-adjusted basis, the numbers simply don't support such a roster move; the cost savings are minimal and the downside risk is substantial, with the only real upside being the possibility of marginal performance gains over what we currently have with Gano.

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If Slye continues to do as well as he has been, then Gano may very well be gone. Very tough call, though.

BUT, if I had to decide today, I would take Syle. 

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My thing with Gano is that it seems he always has some nagging injury every season.  

I guess I have no tolerance for a kicker who is hurt a lot.  May just be overplayed in my mind but every year after he struggles we here about some kind of injury.  

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