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MHS831

We should not be kicking extra points.

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Since the extra point was pushed back to become a 35-yard attempt, the percentage of two point conversions needed to "break even" is 47.6%.  Gano sucks at extra points.  Contrarily, the percentage of converted 2-point conversions (on a study from 2017) was 48.8%. 

The percentage of extra points made is approximately 95% (2015 study), down over 4% from when they used to kick 20-yard extra points.  Gano, however, over the past 3 seasons has been BELOW 92% in each season.   Since the extra point is the equivalent of a 35-yard FG, it is important to note that Gano's career percentage from 30-39 yards is only 82.2%--his exact same career percentage from 40-49 yards.  However, in the last 4 years, Gano's average from 40-49 yards is actually higher than his average from 30-39 yards.  Gano struggles to execute kicks in the 30-39 range more than most kickers in the NFL.

So why are we kicking extra points?  It is stupid, mathematically. 

https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-two-point-conversion-success-rate/

https://rileykolstefootball.com/2018/07/08/two-point-study/

http://www.nfl.com/player/grahamgano/71309/careerstats

It seems to me that if we spent more time working on the two-point conversion, not only would it help us in goal line situations, we would score more points going for 2 than kicking for 1 over the course of a season.  I realize there are other factors--like game situations where 2 points does not help you in the fourth quarter--in that case,  you kick. 

image.png.66f5f59f27d1a4f0d21fcd76d432cee4.png

 

 

 

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Or we could simply move on and roll with a kicker worth a poo at kicking XP's. Are other teams having this much difficulty with this? This shouldn't even be a topic of discussion if we have a top paid kicker on the books. The offense has other things to worry about.

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Not even the youngest, analytically leaning coaches are doing this....much less our version of Mike Ditka.

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Do you forget who our coach is?

Ron Rivera: Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe Play it safe ..........

Ron Rivera on the hotseat: Randomly get super aggressive at weird times with one of the most dynamic playmakers in NFL history.

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2 minutes ago, TheRed said:

Or we could simply move on and roll with a kicker worth a poo at kicking XP's. Are other teams having this much difficulty with this? This shouldn't even be a topic of discussion if we have a top paid kicker on the books. The offense has other things to worry about.

In the last few years, he is averaging about 9 of 10 on extra points and he misses nearly 20% of FGs from 30-39 yards.  Than means we are (approximately) coming away with points in the red zone after stalling only about 8 of 10 times.  That is inexcusable.  You should be around 90% in that range. 

 

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I am confused how a shorter kick, is less accurate than a longer kick? Does he kick it differently, or not as hard on shorter attempts? Does the ball curve differently on longer to where it finishes the curve cycle? I fingered when Kickers kick the ball, they kick with the same force rather long or short, or maybe they don't?

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Take a look at super bowl 38 and see how going for two went.

There is a reason most coaches don’t go for two. It works until it doesn’t and then you have to answer why you made a mistake. Pure math doesn’t account for circumstance or consequence. 

Edited by TN05
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3 minutes ago, Devil Doc said:

I am confused how a shorter kick, is less accurate than a longer kick? Does he kick it differently, or not as hard on shorter attempts? Does the ball curve differently on longer to where it finishes the curve cycle? I fingered when Kickers kick the ball, they kick with the same force rather long or short, or maybe they don't?

All I can figure is the hook.  I notice he kicks extra points from the right hash--he does not have that option on FGs.  Does he line up as he would on a 50 yarder and kick the same way at 35?  If so, the ball does not have the time to come back around.  I kinda relate it to golf--some people are better with their five iron than their nine iron?  I dunno.

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Do we want to expose Cam to that many more hits? I mean, he's probably still going to be our primary goal line weapon. I think I'd rather just kick the XP most of the time.

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12 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

In the last few years, he is averaging about 9 of 10 on extra points and he misses nearly 20% of FGs from 30-39 yards.  Than means we are (approximately) coming away with points in the red zone after stalling only about 8 of 10 times.  That is inexcusable.  You should be around 90% in that range. 

 

I'm not against going for 2 more, I think that's actually an aspect we could use work on. That I agree. In general we have either done well in the red zone or outright struggled over the years, not much wiggle room. That's an issue that has continued through different offensive coordinators.

As far as kicking, Rivera has held Gano back on multiple occasions the last few seasons from long range when we had an opportunity to put points on the board, it's plainly obvious what must happen. There is no pretty way out of this unfortunately. With the OL woes, we need some kind of stability in the kicking game, we cannot fug this up like we did with Butker.

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