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bobowilson

It's been a decade since a team found their franchise QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft

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And the last time it happened was when the Carolina Panthers selected Cam Newton with the 1st pick.

If you look at every "young" franchise QB in the NFL right now, none of them were taken early in the 1st round.   There is a lot of sentiment that we will have to tank next year or do a long rebuild to draft high enough to find a new qb, but the data is pretty interesting.   Don't be so sure we can't find someone in the middle part of the 1st round.

Here is the list of 'top 5' QBs selected since Cam Newton

Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Sam Bradford.   Carson Wentz is the only one out of this bunch with potential to live up to his draft billing.

Now look at the 'young' quarterbacks actually thriving in the NFL

Deshaun Watson - 12th pick

Russell Wilson - 3rd round

Patrick Mahomes - 10th pick

Lamar Jackson - 32nd pick

Kirk Cousins - 3rd round

Dak Prescott - 4th round

Derek Carr - 2nd round

Ryan Tannehill (maybe) - 8th pick, but also was able to be signed as cheap FA

Jimmy Garappolo - 2nd round

I doubt Jacoby Brissett or Minshew will prove to be franchise QBs, but they're somewhere in the range and also didn't require early draft capital.

Kyler Murray may prove to be the first early QB drafted in a decade who is a franchise guy, but it's too early to determine how he will pan out.

Edited by bobowilson
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2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Tannehill seems to have resurrected his career in Tennessee.

Honestly, it never really had to get resurrected. He's not a guy that is going to make a mediocre team a contender but he's better than a game manager.  Miami was not a fit but he always showed promise there.  They just refused to actually build a team.  Running backs and receivers have just been on a spin cycle and they have no guys cemented in the franchise. 

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If only we could trust Hurney to find a gem 

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This may be true but outside of Tua, Herbert, and Burrow, this draft is hogwash at QB.  Fromm is a maybe at being a capable starter but he doesn't have the modern NFL skills (solid leader though)...the rest are just duds. 

Love, Eason, and a few others all had hype and promise and fell off a cliff in 2019. 

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Interesting point. Had a vague notion in the same direction but hadn’t looked at the data this way.

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3 minutes ago, WarHeel said:

Foles and Wentz?

I included Wentz in my list and said he was the only early draft pick with potential

But honestly, he's been pretty bad this year, and along with the fact he's injury prone, it's hard to definitively state he was worth the draft capital they gave up to move into this selection.   We will see.

 

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1 minute ago, saX man said:

This may be true but outside of Tua, Herbert, and Burrow, this draft is hogwash at QB.  Fromm is a maybe at being a capable starter but he doesn't have the modern NFL skills (solid leader though)...the rest are just duds. 

Love, Eason, and a few others all had hype and promise and fell off a cliff in 2019. 

What this list reflects though is how often the conventional wisdom is wrong about who will pan out.

The same things we're saying about Burrow right now, were the same things said about all the other top quarterbacks drafted the past decade, before they actually played in the NFL and were somewhere in between busts and mediocre (well everyone knew Bortles was a reach, but other than that).

It also seems like teams have consistently overdrafted traditional pocket passers, when mobile qbs taken later in the 1st round are proving to be a lot more successful in the modern NFL.

So perhaps Jalen Hurts is the next Jackson or Watson, who was overlooked and underdrafted relative to Burrow or Herbert.

 

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It’s not that those top picks were trash, it’s that they went to bad teams who don’t know how to develop talent. Plus the pressure of being a top pick and the money that comes with it can mess with guys.

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1 minute ago, bobowilson said:

What this list reflects though is how often the conventional wisdom is wrong about who will pan out.

The same things we're saying about Burrow right now, were the same things said about all the other top quarterbacks drafted the past decade, before they actually played in the NFL and were somewhere in between busts and mediocre (well everyone knew Bortles was a reach, but other than that).

It also seems like teams have consistently overdrafted traditional pocket passers, when mobile qbs taken later in the 1st round are proving to be a lot more successful in the modern NFL.

So perhaps Jalen Hurts is the next Jackson or Watson, who was overlooked and underdrafted relative to Burrow or Herbert.

 

If we're talking 2020, Hurts is on track to be the first QB taken but I agree to an extent.  The guy I'm interested to see the draft/return decision with is Kellen Mond.  I think he has a future in the league.  Has some stuff to work out but it's all coacheable.  He's got the intangibles, mobility, and skills. 

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2 minutes ago, Tbe said:

It’s not that those top picks were trash, it’s that they went to bad teams who don’t know how to develop talent. Plus the pressure of being a top pick and the money that comes with it can mess with guys.

You can say the same thing about Cam Newton (drafted by the worst team in the NFL, had terrible coaches, especially as his OC (mostly Shula), lot of pressure, and he was such a great talent, we still went to the Super Bowl.

That's what you're looking for when you draft a QB in the top 3.

 

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1 minute ago, Tbe said:

It’s not that those top picks were trash, it’s that they went to bad teams who don’t know how to develop talent. Plus the pressure of being a top pick and the money that comes with it can mess with guys.

Your point about pressure and going to bad teams I can see, but not sure about the money aspect. Are we really saying that the one or two million that say all these non first round guys were earning on their rookie deals kept them grounded but the 5 million or more that the top picks get were counterproductive? I think for the vast majority of 20 year olds, anything over a million dollars is sort of all in the same category of life altering.

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2 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

You can say the same thing about Cam Newton (drafted by the worst team in the NFL, had terrible coaches, especially as his OC (mostly Shula), lot of pressure, and he was such a great talent, we still went to the Super Bowl.

That's what you're looking for when you draft a QB in the top 3.

 

As OP stated, Cam has been the exception. 

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