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PanthersNC1984

In the last 30 years only three QBs picked number one overall have won a SB. Stop this Burrow talk.

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37 minutes ago, stbugs said:

His numbers aren’t even right. 10 of the last 30 have been won by 1st overall picks and that’s the largest segment. He forgot Aikman, Elway and Young (yes, he was going to be the #1 pick but took the huge USFL deal). That’s 20% of the last 30 he just plain missed. He brought up Foles, but that’s like Hostetler and Simms. Wentz had the Eagles at 11-2 and was playing at an MVP level. Just because Foles finished well doesn’t mean you ignore Wentz. Same with Simms. They weren’t #1 overall but both were top 7 picks.

I mean it’s ridiculously lopsided for SB winners (and likely losers) to be 1st overall or just plain first rounders. Outside of the 1st you have crazy exceptions and then Tom Brady, so grabbing Eason, Fromm, Love, etc. even in the 2nd is a shot in the dark of producing a SB winner. Taking Burrow or Tua or Lawrence and Fields next year is far more likely to produce a title.

The funny thing is that @Mr. Scot posted earlier, #1 overall picks are typically going to really bad teams so the fact that 1 out of 3 SBs has been won by 1st overall picks in the past 30 years gives even more credibility to taking QBs early.

To be fair, he said how many QBs, not how many superbowls they had, he missed Aikman, I did too, I'll go back and correct my post in a second, but he said 3 had been drafted that won superbowls, and he was off by one.

You can disagree about Young and Wentz, but Wentz didn't win the super bowl, and Young was drafted before the cutoff he set.

So my count [ I should be working, but hey, ]

There are 18 different QBs who have won in the last 30 years

Num 1 overall

2 Peyton
2 Elway
3 Aikman
2 Eli

1st rounders

Rogers
Flacco
2 Big Ben
Dilfer

So 14 out last  30 super bowls won by first rounders, without Brady, that number is higher.

4 number one overall picks and 4 more 1st rounders, so 8 first rounders and 10 others

Here's the rest:

6 Brady - 6th rounder
1 Wilson- 3rd round, only because of height
1 Brees 2nd rounder, would be first rounder today
1 Brad Johnson 9th
1 Warner Undrafted
1 Farve 2nd, same as Brees , first rounder today
1 Young- 1st rounder before cutoff set by OP
1 Rypien 6th rounder
1 Hostetler 3rd rounder
2 Montana 3rd rounder

Actually going to throw Young in to the first rounders, so of the 18 QBs, 9 were drafted in the 1st round, 9 later or undrafted.

Think that counters  his point better than the one you made. Using the criteria he used, still best odds for finding a super bowl winning QB is to draft one first round.

 

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So what pick in the draft is the best to pick a SB winning qb? #43 #143?  I bet statistically its the #1 pick.

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It really doesnt matter how many times a number 1 QB has won a superbowl, because thats not what bekng asked of the Panthers.  The Panthers would have to give up a kings ransom for said pick.  So how many teams have mortgaged thier future to pick a QB #1 and then have won a superbowl with that QB.  I have a feeling the answer is 0

Edited by jfra78
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1 hour ago, falconidae said:

To be fair, he said how many QBs, not how many superbowls they had, he missed Aikman, I did too, I'll go back and correct my post in a second, but he said 3 had been drafted that won superbowls, and he was off by one.

You can disagree about Young and Wentz, but Wentz didn't win the super bowl, and Young was drafted before the cutoff he set.

So my count [ I should be working, but hey, ]

There are 18 different QBs who have won in the last 30 years

Num 1 overall

2 Peyton
2 Elway
3 Aikman
2 Eli

1st rounders

Rogers
Flacco
2 Big Ben
Dilfer

So 14 out last  30 super bowls won by first rounders, without Brady, that number is higher.

4 number one overall picks and 4 more 1st rounders, so 8 first rounders and 10 others

Here's the rest:

6 Brady - 6th rounder
1 Wilson- 3rd round, only because of height
1 Brees 2nd rounder, would be first rounder today
1 Brad Johnson 9th
1 Warner Undrafted
1 Farve 2nd, same as Brees , first rounder today
1 Young- 1st rounder before cutoff set by OP
1 Rypien 6th rounder
1 Hostetler 3rd rounder
2 Montana 3rd rounder

Actually going to throw Young in to the first rounders, so of the 18 QBs, 9 were drafted in the 1st round, 9 later or undrafted.

Think that counters  his point better than the one you made. Using the criteria he used, still best odds for finding a super bowl winning QB is to draft one first round.

 

I was going by the last 30 SBs so I missed that. That would also drop Montana and Hostetler off the list as well which would more than counter dropping Young. I will disagree about Wentz and Simms. Though they missed the SB, they both had 11 wins in the regular season and played over 2/3rds of their team's games. It’s not really fair to give Foles 100% credit for that season when Wentz was likely the MVP of the league if he doesn’t get hurt. He was 11-2 with 33 TDs.

All that said, we have the same thought, if you want to win a SB you have to get ridiculously lucky and get a Brady, Montana or Wilson or you take a QB in the first, most likely at #1. Even looking at SB losers the last 30 years you get 1st rounders in Cam, Ryan, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, Collins, McNabb, Grossman, Goff and even guys like Manning and Roethlisberger who are on the winners list too.

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David Carr was a Giant backup when Eli won a Super Bowl---

So what you are saying is this:

Since the Mannings won 4 Super Bowls and Carr and Bledsoe were on the team for 1 each,  first overall picks at QB were on the WINNING team 5 of 30 Super Bowls.  That rounds to 17% of the Super Bowl VICTORS featured QBs drafted first overall. 

However, this is a bit skewed because

First overall pick QBs drafted Since 1990: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Tim Couch, Payton Manning, David Carr, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff

You could add Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray to the list, but really?  1-2 seasons on the worst team in the league?  Not fair, so I cut it off at those with 3 years experience or the opportunity to have 3 years of experience by now.

So basically over the past 26 years, there were 16 QBs taken first overall.  Of those, 7 played in Super Bowls--44% of them.  4 of the 16, or 25% of them, were on winning Super Bowl teams. The Mannings were the only starters to win, but they won 4 collectively.  So if your name was not Manning over the past 30 years, you were not a first overall pick winning a Super Bowl as the starting QB.

If you get, "So don't draft Burrow" out of that, you would have to examine the likelihood for a non-first round pick to win a Super Bowl.  Of course the percentage is higher because there are more of them, but the odds of any ONE QB from that group winning the Super Bowl are smaller.  

And there is one more variable:  First overall picks routinely go to the worst team in the league.  Aaron Rodgers, for example, went 23 picks after Alex Smith in the 2005 draft, to a good team.  Who is more likely to go to a Super Bowl, Rodgers or Smith? If the 2 players were equal, Rodgers is the correct answer.

Edited by MHS831

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13 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

David Carr was a Giant backup when Eli won a Super Bowl---

So what you are saying is this:

Since the Mannings won 4 Super Bowls and Carr and Bledsoe were on the team for 1 each,  first overall picks at QB were on the WINNING team 5 of 30 Super Bowls.  That rounds to 17% of the Super Bowl VICTORS featured QBs drafted first overall. 

However, this is a bit skewed because

First overall pick QBs drafted Since 1990: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Tim Couch, Payton Manning, David Carr, Mike Vick, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff

You could add Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray to the list, but really?  1-2 seasons on the worst team in the league?  Not fair, so I cut it off at those with 3 years experience or the opportunity to have 3 years of experience by now.

So basically over the past 26 years, there were 16 QBs taken first overall.  Of those, 7 played in Super Bowls--44% of them.  4 of the 16, or 25% of them, were on winning Super Bowl teams. The Mannings were the only starters to win, but they won 4 collectively.  So if your name was not Manning over the past 30 years, you were not a first overall pick winning a Super Bowl as the starting QB.

If you get, "So don't draft Burrow" out of that, you would have to examine the likelihood for a non-first round pick to win a Super Bowl.  Of course the percentage is higher because there are more of them, but the odds of any ONE QB from that group winning the Super Bowl are smaller.  

And there is one more variable:  First overall picks routinely go to the worst team in the league.  Aaron Rodgers, for example, went 23 picks after Alex Smith in the 2005 draft, to a good team.  Who is more likely to go to a Super Bowl, Rodgers or Smith? If the 2 players were equal, Rodgers is the correct answer.

I would agree that counting Bledsoe is probably not a fully accurate way to look at it, but you can not compare Carr and Bledsoe.  First, Carr wasnt even with the team that drafted him...Bledsoe was.  Also, Bledsoe was actually a part of the Super Bowl run because he had to come in against the Steelers when Brady went down.

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Burrows is off the board.  He is a Bengal now. 

With the Dolphins and Chargers now desperate for a QB, watch for Herbert and Tua to be gone too.  Yes, Herbert.  Some of you hate him, but the kid's problems are mental--has all the tools.  Besides, there is a big dropoff after him at QB.  He could go before Tua...

So do you try to develop what is on the roster and take a Fromm (game manager), Love (stock dropped a lot with picks in 2019), or Hurts (they say he cant read a defense)? I am not down on Eason like some of you, feeling his arm is great and his pocket movement is something to build on.  His numbers were good in the flag-football PAC 10, so there might be something there.

 

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2 minutes ago, Wes21 said:

I would agree that counting Bledsoe is probably not a fully accurate way to look at it, but you can not compare Carr and Bledsoe.  First, Carr wasnt even with the team that drafted him...Bledsoe was.  Also, Bledsoe was actually a part of the Super Bowl run because he had to come in against the Steelers when Brady went down.

Were the criteria you mention to disqualify Carr part of the description here?  You compared Carr to Bledsoe--I did not. I read the thread title literally and it is not accurate as written.  Not that it matters, but you could say, "If you are the first overall pick and your name is not Manning, based on the past 30 years,  you have Zero chance of starting for the Super Bowl winning team."  Would that be accurate?

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2 hours ago, stbugs said:

I was going by the last 30 SBs so I missed that. That would also drop Montana and Hostetler off the list as well which would more than counter dropping Young. I will disagree about Wentz and Simms. Though they missed the SB, they both had 11 wins in the regular season and played over 2/3rds of their team's games. It’s not really fair to give Foles 100% credit for that season when Wentz was likely the MVP of the league if he doesn’t get hurt. He was 11-2 with 33 TDs.

All that said, we have the same thought, if you want to win a SB you have to get ridiculously lucky and get a Brady, Montana or Wilson or you take a QB in the first, most likely at #1. Even looking at SB losers the last 30 years you get 1st rounders in Cam, Ryan, Kelly, Bledsoe, McNair, Collins, McNabb, Grossman, Goff and even guys like Manning and Roethlisberger who are on the winners list too.

There's more luck involved in any super bowl run than most fans want to admit. 

I don't even disagree with the OP's premise that moving up to get  Burrow would be a bad move-too much draft capital for too big a risk, just think his logic and numbers were a little off

 

 

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21 minutes ago, falconidae said:

There's more luck involved in any super bowl run than most fans want to admit. 

I don't even disagree with the OP's premise that moving up to get  Burrow would be a bad move-too much draft capital for too big a risk, just think his logic and numbers were a little off

 

 

Moving up is different that trying to say don’t pick a QB early. Too much evidence that 1st round QBs are way more successful. Than all the rest. It seems obvious but the guys thinking Love or Fromm or Eason or any other 2nd/3rd rounder has a better chance than Burrow even if they go to a better team don’t pay attention to history. It could happen but there’s 33 years between Montana and Wilson and only Brady is in the middle. 

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12 hours ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Since there is no chance we get to draft Burrows, all of this is much ado about nothing.

Agree--but his logic was wrong because if its implications that any QB drafted later has an equal or greater chance of winning a Super Bowl, based on his conclusion that Burrow is a bad idea.  While the percent chance of any QB winning a Super Bowl is small, the point he is making is that only 4 times has it happened in 30 years if you do not count the non-starters.  That is 13.3%, a much higher percentage than any one QB's chance of winning a Super Bowl NOT drafted first overall.  His logic is skewed because the only way to win his argument is to compare a very small population of players selected to go to the worst teams in the league vs. the entire body of QBs that started during that time period.  16 first overall picks (some busts like Couch and Russell)  vs. about 400 QBs taken or signed as free agents.   So if the implication is you have a better chance of winning a Super Bowl with a QB not taken first overall, that is not correct at all.

Edited by MHS831

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9 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Agree--but his logic was wrong because if its implications that any QB drafted later has an equal or greater chance of winning a Super Bowl, based on his conclusion that Burrow is a bad idea.  While the percent chance of any QB winning a Super Bowl is small, the point he is making is that only 4 times has it happened in 30 years if you do not count the non-starters.  That is 13.3%, a much higher percentage than any one QB's chance of winning a Super Bowl NOT drafted first overall.  His logic is skewed because the only way to win his argument is to compare a very small population of players selected to go to the worst teams in the league vs. the entire body of QBs that started during that time period.  16 first overall picks (some busts like Couch and Russell)  vs. about 400 QBs taken or signed as free agents.   So if the implication is you have a better chance of winning a Super Bowl with a QB not taken first overall, that is not correct at all.

You are of course correct, but I do think that drafting a qb is kind of a crap shoot regardless.  Your odds of winning the crap shoot are just higher early in the first round.  

I posted something that Mr Scott and I were discussing a few weeks ago.  It was a list of the first qb selected in draft in each of the last ten years.  The results were generally not good.  We actually had the best result getting Newton with the first pick in 2011.  Luck and Wentz were pretty good to.  The rest of them, well it wasn't encouraging.  Mostly career backups (Bradford), guys who should be backup's (Winston, Trubisky), guys that are out of the NFL (Manuel) or guys that haven't proven themselves yet (Mayfield, Baker).  It doesn't bode well, but certainly Burrows could buck the trend.  

 

Edited by Davidson Deac II

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Haha.   You guys must get laid a lot while researching all these stats.   

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