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MHS831

Marty's enormous BRAIN

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We spend a lot of time discussing what we would do in free agency and the draft, and the only constant we have to rely on is the legend--Marty Hurney.  So what can we surmise about him based on previous experiences?  Here is what I recall, and maybe you can add to this (these are some random thoughts to consider in an effort to form an educated guess):

1.   He was historically terrible at drafting or signing free agent DTs.  He simply did not seem to value the position.  At the moment, it looks as if we have 1 DT who will be on the roster in 2020.  KK Short. Are we counting on Marty to develop that position?  See his DT draft history below (note: DT free agency is no better).

2. He is also not great at finding talent at key positions--but his first rounds have been excellent.   His first round picks are solid--Peppers, Gross, Gamble, Davis, Beason, Williams, Stewart, Otah, Newton, Moore, Burns.  He screwed up twice (Otah, Brown) trading away first rounders, however.

3.  Aside from Gamble and maybe Norman, what CB has he drafted?   Richard Marshall, RJ Stanford, Robert McClain, Brandon Hogan, Josh Norman (good for a season).  Not great.

4.  Take a look at his WR prowess.  Aside from Moore, and Norv Turner was heavily involved in that decision, who?:  Walter Young, Drew Carter, Keary Colbert (2nd round), Rhyne Robinson, Dwayne Jarrett (2nd round), David Gettis, Armanti Edwards, Brandon Lafell, Kealoha Pilares.  Yikes!!! Now, this draft is loaded at WR--no way Hurney misses out on this, right?

5. OT: What does Jordan Gross have in common with Lee Ziemba? Jeff Otah? Rashard Butler?  Joe Berger?  NOTHING, except they are the Tackles drafted by Hurney.  Aside from Otah, only Gamecocks' Travelle Wharton (moved to G) and Dennis Daley (may be moved to G), there is nothing of value in that group---save Gross.

There are many reasons to question his decisions as a GM--contracts such as Jake Delhomme's after surgery and non-contracts such as Julius Peppers. 

So what is he thinking now?  Remember, the key positions listed above--OT, CB, QB, DT, and WR---all positions where we need help.  What is Marty thinking with that enormous Brain?:

  • LT:  He drafted 2 last year that played as rookies.  They are fine and Moton is pretty solid.
  • CB: Trying to re-sign Bradberry, Cockrell.  We have Jackson.  A need, but not a priority unless we don't sign Bradberry.
  • QB: Cam.  I get the feeling that this is not his call.  Marty extended Jake Delhomme after surgery and really had no backup plan.  Will he make the same move again?  Drafting a QB is not his thing--the way he jumped on Clausen a decade ago when teams that were thirsty for a qb passed on him.  Yes, he drafted Cam--but the reason he got that decision was due to picking Clausen. 
  • DT:  Did you ever get the idea that Marty HATES DTs?  That is because he does.  Take a look at his draft history:
    • 2018:  7th round:  Kendrick Norton
    • 2011: 3rd round: Terrell McClain, Sione Fua
    • 2009: 3rd round: Corvey Irvin
    • 2008: Fifth round: Nick Hayden
    • 2005: Third round; Atyyah Ellison
    • 2003: Fifth Round: Kindall Moorehead

He has never drafted a DT above the third round.  His best picks were fifth rounders. 3 times he has busted on third round DTs--he is 0-3 in the third at DT.

FREE AGENT DTs:  He inherited Jenkins and Buckner.  Who are they?

So if we have (assuming Poe is gone) one DT on the roster, can Marty screw up here?  I think not.  Barring the sudden need for a QB--and maybe even if QB is a need---he has to go DT in the first round because he sucks at picking them later (disclaimer: The only first round DT in Panther history?  Star--Gettlemen's pick.  He also picked KK Short, only the second, second round DT in Panther draft history (Kris Jenkins was the other).  So it seems we have drafted well at DT in the first and second rounds when Marty Hurney is not the GM.

 

Summary:  It seems, if you look at it from Marty's perspective and he has the same powers given him in the past, that Marty will consider OT covered unless the concussion concern is a big issue.   It is unlikely he will bury one of his high picks from the year before, but he did that with Cam and Clausen.  Still, if we cut Poe, that almost necessitates a DT in rounds 1 and/or 2.  The talent seems to drop off a bit after round 2.  Until the Cam situation is resolved, we do not know much, but we should expect a DT early.  I think we will add one or even two in free agency and add a draft pick.  Marty will draft a WR, even thought he can't, because it is too deep of a draft and we do have a need--just not a huge need.  I do not see a QB in this draft unless one of the top 3 become available--then he may not.  CB is possible, but I am guessing he will throw the bank at Bradberry to avoid making a CB pick in the draft-historically, he seems to throw numbers at the position, like he did RG for years. He drafted 3 CBs one year, hoping one would stick.  Aside from Gamble and Norman, he has not hit on CBs in the draft with much accuracy--and I am not one who sees but 1 solid Norman season in 4, but for a fifth rounder, it is what it is.

Not many are discussing DE--and I think Marty might go there early (day 2). 

If Marty's history is true to form, LB Simmons is in play in the first round.  He would have to go DT in the second in that case, so I see Blacklock as a solid pick.  In the third, a CB or WR.  Marty likes the first round home runs at positions he feels confident will succeed--like RB, LB, and DE.  He has drafted first rounders at DE twice (Peppers Burns--and Brown if you count trading a first rounder for a player), RB twice (Stewart, Williams), LB three times (Keuchly, Beason, Davis).  Other first rounders are QB (Cam), LT (Gross), CB (Gamble), and WR Moore, thanks to Norv).  However, if you start in 2005 with Davis, 5 of his 8 first rounders were RBs or LBs. 

If it is based purely on need, DT or QB is the pick.  While OT does not seem likely, the concussion thing could change that.

While the draft seems to be aligned with Panther needs, the GM's history is not. 

Pure speculation based on his history-what say you all?

 

 

Edited by MHS831
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If Hurney is leading this off-season process I have no hope that we will be competitive or headed in the right direction this season. If that gets Martyboy fired then I am at peace with that. 3-13 going on 3-14. 

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Almost every mock draft on the internet has us picking Derrick Brown (DT Auburn) with pick 7; its been like that for about a month now.  

Only thing is these mocks almost never account for the unpredictability thats going to happen in the top 5 picks. SOMEONE is going to trade up, SOMEONE is going to select an oddball pick. Stuff like that changes everything so don't be so sure were getting a DT. 

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Who cares? The way the offseason is going, I expect we draft someone from Baylor in every round anyway.

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Marty doesn't bring in people he personally wants. He brings in folks his coaches and scouts say they want to run their system.  Saying all the bad picks and good picks are due primarily to Marty is pretty naive. 

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18 minutes ago, Car123 said:

You could do this for any GM.

No you can’t. Most GM’s get fired when they don’t produce results.

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17 minutes ago, Pantha-kun said:

Almost every mock draft on the internet has us picking Derrick Brown (DT Auburn) with pick 7; its been like that for about a month now.  

Only thing is these mocks almost never account for the unpredictability thats going to happen in the top 5 picks. SOMEONE is going to trade up, SOMEONE is going to select an oddball pick. Stuff like that changes everything so don't be so sure were getting a DT. 

Knowing Gettleman, I see virtually zero chance that he doesn't pick either an OT or Brown.

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36 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

We spend a lot of time discussing what we would do in free agency and the draft, and the only constant we have to rely on is the legend--Marty Hurney.  So what can we surmise about him based on previous experiences?  Here is what I recall, and maybe you can add to this (these are some random thoughts to consider in an effort to form an educated guess):

1.   He was historically terrible at drafting or signing free agent DTs.  He simply did not seem to value the position.  At the moment, it looks as if we have 1 DT who will be on the roster in 2020.  KK Short. Are we counting on Marty to develop that position?  See his DT draft history below (note: DT free agency is no better).

2. He is also not great at finding talent at key positions--but his first rounds have been excellent.   His first round picks are solid--Peppers, Gross, Gamble, Davis, Beason, Williams, Stewart, Otah, Newton, Moore, Burns.  He screwed up twice (Otah, Brown) trading away first rounders, however.

3.  Aside from Gamble and maybe Norman, what CB has he drafted?   Richard Marshall, RJ Stanford, Robert McClain, Brandon Hogan, Josh Norman (good for a season).  Not great.

4.  Take a look at his WR prowess.  Aside from Moore, and Norv Turner was heavily involved in that decision, who?:  Walter Young, Drew Carter, Keary Colbert (2nd round), Rhyne Robinson, Dwayne Jarrett (2nd round), David Gettis, Armanti Edwards, Brandon Lafell, Kealoha Pilares.  Yikes!!! Now, this draft is loaded at WR--no way Hurney misses out on this, right?

5. OT: What does Jordan Gross have in common with Lee Ziemba? Jeff Otah? Rashard Butler?  Joe Berger?  NOTHING, except they are the Tackles drafted by Hurney.  Aside from Otah, only Gamecocks' Travelle Wharton (moved to G) and Dennis Daley (may be moved to G), there is nothing of value in that group---save Gross.

There are many reasons to question his decisions as a GM--contracts such as Jake Delhomme's after surgery and non-contracts such as Julius Peppers. 

So what is he thinking now?  Remember, the key positions listed above--OT, CB, QB, DT, and WR---all positions where we need help.  What is Marty thinking with that enormous Brain?:

  • LT:  He drafted 2 last year that played as rookies.  They are fine and Moton is pretty solid.
  • CB: Trying to re-sign Bradberry, Cockrell.  We have Jackson.  A need, but not a priority unless we don't sign Bradberry.
  • QB: Cam.  I get the feeling that this is not his call.  Marty extended Jake Delhomme after surgery and really had no backup plan.  Will he make the same move again?  Drafting a QB is not his thing--the way he jumped on Clausen a decade ago when teams that were thirsty for a qb passed on him.  Yes, he drafted Cam--but the reason he got that decision was due to picking Clausen. 
  • DT:  Did you ever get the idea that Marty HATES DTs?  That is because he does.  Take a look at his draft history:
    • 2018:  7th round:  Kendrick Norton
    • 2011: 3rd round: Terrell McClain, Sione Fua
    • 2009: 3rd round: Corvey Irvin
    • 2008: Fifth round: Nick Hayden
    • 2005: Third round; Atyyah Ellison
    • 2003: Fifth Round: Kindall Moorehead

He has never drafted a DT above the third round.  His best picks were fifth rounders. 3 times he has busted on third round DTs--he is 0-3 in the third at DT.

FREE AGENT DTs:  He inherited Jenkins and Buckner.  Who are they?

So if we have (assuming Poe is gone) one DT on the roster, can Marty screw up here?  I think not.  Barring the sudden need for a QB--and maybe even if QB is a need---he has to go DT in the first round because he sucks at picking them later (disclaimer: The only first round DT in Panther history?  Star--Gettlemen's pick.  He also picked KK Short, only the second, second round DT in Panther draft history (Kris Jenkins was the other).  So it seems we have drafted well at DT in the first and second rounds when Marty Hurney is not the GM.

 

Summary:  It seems, if you look at it from Marty's perspective and he has the same powers given him in the past, that Marty will consider OT covered unless the concussion concern is a big issue.   It is unlikely he will bury one of his high picks from the year before, but he did that with Cam and Clausen.  Still, if we cut Poe, that almost necessitates a DT in rounds 1 and/or 2.  The talent seems to drop off a bit after round 2.  Until the Cam situation is resolved, we do not know much, but we should expect a DT early.  I think we will add one or even two in free agency and add a draft pick.  Marty will draft a WR, even thought he can't, because it is too deep of a draft and we do have a need--just not a huge need.  I do not see a QB in this draft unless one of the top 3 become available--then he may not.  CB is possible, but I am guessing he will throw the bank at Bradberry to avoid making a CB pick in the draft-historically, he seems to throw numbers at the position, like he did RG for years. He drafted 3 CBs one year, hoping one would stick.  Aside from Gamble and Norman, he has not hit on CBs in the draft with much accuracy--and I am not one who sees but 1 solid Norman season in 4, but for a fifth rounder, it is what it is.

Not many are discussing DE--and I think Marty might go there early (day 2). 

If Marty's history is true to form, LB Simmons is in play in the first round.  He would have to go DT in the second in that case, so I see Blacklock as a solid pick.  In the third, a CB or WR.  Marty likes the first round home runs at positions he feels confident will succeed--like RB, LB, and DE.  He has drafted first rounders at DE twice (Peppers Burns--and Brown if you count trading a first rounder for a player), RB twice (Stewart, Williams), LB three times (Keuchly, Beason, Davis).  Other first rounders are QB (Cam), LT (Gross), CB (Gamble), and WR Moore, thanks to Norv).  However, if you start in 2005 with Davis, 5 of his 8 first rounders were RBs or LBs. 

If it is based purely on need, DT or QB is the pick.  While OT does not seem likely, the concussion thing could change that.

While the draft seems to be aligned with Panther needs, the GM's history is not. 

Pure speculation based on his history-what say you all?

 

 

I wasn’t depressed today until I read this

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I can tell when something isn't completely true when people need to convince themselves of it. That and the use of superlatives. Practically everyone on this board thinks he is trash. Nobody has argued that he is great. A few of us see that he isn't that bad.

Plus he may be gone soon.

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1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Knowing Gettleman, I see virtually zero chance that he doesn't pick either an OT or Brown.

0 except.... if they have a bigger need they have to fill.

Edited by Harbingers

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1 minute ago, Harbingers said:

0 except.... if they have a bigger need they have to fill.

Need? Gentleman doesn't give a damn about need. He overlooked massive obvious needs to take Shaq with TD and Luke on the roster and then did it again the next year taking Butler with Star and KK on the roster.

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21 minutes ago, Car123 said:

You could do this for any GM.

Yes.  Yes you could, just as i could have done this to predict which Huddlers would add to the conversation and which are more prone to make some critical comment or demonstrate a lack of understanding of the point.   But if you understand the connection between action and habits of mind, you need to do it for each GM to understand their tendencies. 

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