AU-panther

Doh They take Darnold in the trade, don't need to draft a QB? I can't even say it with a straight face. Damn I hate it when I say something stupid, I don't see how half of this board lives with themselves doing it all the time. Got ahead of myself trying to be positive. Ok, Dolphins stick with Tua, Jets or Texans take whoever of Fields/Wilson we like the least?

If we don't get Watson we should really be hoping that the Jets do. One less team to draft a QB in front of us. Best case for us Jets get Watson, Miami decides to give Tua one more year.

What I think it takes or what I would offer? I would offer 2021 1st and 2nd, 2022 1st, CMC What I think it would take? 2021 1st, 2022 1st, 2023 1st, CMC and Burns or Brown

but if we spend 3 1st round picks to find a rookie QB we save around $100m over the life of that rookie contract. Great QB on a rookie deal > than a great QB on their second deal The QB on the second deal is just usually a safer pick because you know what he can do. Every scenario we can come up with is a gamble, the greatest reward though, is finding a franchise QB in the draft.

Very good chance that the Texans would prefer to draft a QB at 3, in which case Tua is redundant. They might prefer an extra 1st over Tua but then Miami wouldn't really need Tua either if they get Watson.

People need to factor in the cap cost also. Lets assume its takes 3 1st and CMC. The real question is: Watson or Rookie QB (whoever you draft at 8 ) + 2 future 1st round picks + CMC + $100m in cap space over 5 years. $100m is roughly the difference in cap cost between Watson for 5 years and anyone we pick. $100m will help a lot in filling out a roster. Even if you are wrong about the QB this year you still have 2 more 1st to use on future QBs. A franchise QB on a rookie deal is easily the best deal in all of the NFL. Drafting a QB is risky, but if you give up that much for an established QB you are reducing your margin of error on what draft picks you do have and also putting a lot of pressure on any free agent dollars you spend because they will be limited.

This^ This again^, but I think you have to give them 2-3 years, QBs take time to develop. Draft a guy, put him in a position to be succesffull (good coaching and good teamates) and give him time. If he doesn't work out you do it again. Everyone wants to go cheap (draft a guy later) or look for the sure thing (sign a vet), any vet that is easily available is so because he isn't that great. This is how people should look at these different scenarios. These moves don't happen in a vacuum. Lets assume you give up a second for Stafford and 3 1st and a player for Watson. Watson + 2nd or Stafford + three 1st and CMC Watson or Lance + CMC + three 1st and + $100m in cap space over 5 years (5 year cost difference between the two) Stafford or Lance +2nd + $38m in cap space over 2 years (2 year difference between the 2)

Take those players that have made it from later rounds and divide by the number of players drafted. Do the same for the first round. Your chances are exponentially higher in the first.

Any trade offer that you would be happy with isn’t enough, add to it until you start question it, that’s when it starts get realistic

out of curiosity what was the standards for "making it"? I would have thought it was even less for both categories.

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out. The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic but to me someone like the Jets would quickly offer their 1st this year plus their next two 1st, which would be a way better deal, same with Miami. The #2 pick from the Jets is probably worth everything you are talking about offering by itself. If they don't want to draft QB2 at pick 2 they can easily flip it for at least 2 first round picks.

But you said he had all of this leverage, if he really had all of this leverage he would make sure whatever team he goes to wouldn't have to give up much so he could be on a better team. Wouldn't matter how many team were actually bidding. If he was really a free agent so to speak like a lot of you think they wouldn't give up much at all.

I could see it happening, and there is a good chance he will sign for less and play well. The "next" team always seems to get the good deal.

If you think he has that much leverage what do you honestly think he gets traded for and to who?

He wouldn't have the remainder of his career. They own his rights, even if he retires. The $10.5m this year the could lose, is actually his first "big" year of salary. The other years were lower amounts from his rookie contract. The majority of money he has all ready received was from his signing bonus, of which they could go after and take back.

Every Watson thread has people throwing out crazy offers. Don't get me wrong, I would love to trade Teddy and Shaq for Watson also , but we need to be somewhat realistic, so lets look at some former trades for big name players. RG3 - three 1st and a 2nd Khalil Mack - two 1st, 3rd, and a 6th for Mack and a 2nd Jeremy Tunsil - two 1st, a 2nd for Tunsil and a WR (stills) Jaylen Ramsey - two 1st and a 4th Jamal Adams - two 1st, a 3rd, a player for Adams and a 4th So a LT, CB, Edge, and Safety all fetched at least two 1st round picks, an unproven QB fetched three 1st round picks, so what does a top 5 QB entering his prime fetch? Would you trade any combination of 2 of the players above for Watson? most people would Personally I think its going to take some combination of 5 (1st round picks and/or young players) to make it work. If a team has a really high draft pick such as the Dolphins or Jets it might be less. You have to remember that the Jets #2 pick is like 3 first round picks of other teams. It would cost us that much to move up from 8, let alone teams that have later draft picks. They can easily flip that pick for more picks or draft a QB of the future. Best guess for us, I'm thinking our next three #1s plus some combination of two of CMC/Burns/Brown/Chinn. Also before someone starts talking about his no trade clause, its not going to have the impact that some think. He stands to lose a lot of money if he refuses to play.

He would lose money, actually a lot.

and they can refuse to trade him anywhere. People are severely overrating how much of a discount teams will get because of that no trade clause.

Everyone keeps offering too little. Jamal Adams went for two 1st, a safety. Go look at the RG3 trade or the Mack trade. Watson - more like three 1st and a good player such as CMC or Burns, maybe a 2nd also or another player 2nd pick - Probably our next three 1st, RG3 was three 1st and and a 2nd. Stafford - depending on where the team is picking, possible a 1st

Shaq Thompson Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap Shaq has a $10m base salary this year, of which $8m becomes guaranteed in March. I could see them either releasing him or asking him to take a pay cut before then. People need to realize that most teams only really have a handful of guys making over $10m any given year in base salary. You don't pay for that solid, that is what you pay for outstanding.

but history tells us that finding a good QB after the 1st round is almost impossible. Taking a QB in the first doesn't guaranteed they will make it, but taking them out of the first almost guarantees they don't. Maybe a 1st round QB only has a 10% chance of being a quality starter, but after the 1st that might drop to .05%. That is 20 times less likely. I'm not a big fan of chasing exceptions, I can use that draft pick to pick a position that actually has a realistic chance of making it. That Grier pick could have a guard that actually had a realistic chance to be a quality starter. If we need a QB we need to take one in the first round, you move up or down in the round as needed.

$10m of his guaranteed money is in the form of guaranteed salary, specifically $10m this year. Guaranteed salary can be traded, if we cut him we owe it, if we trade him possible not. That is why you are seeing the different numbers.

I personally think Kamara, LT, or Faulk could all be full time receivers if they put a year to it, especially working in the slot. Great athletes with good hands, they could learn. My point was that if you want to justify a RB having a large contract I think they have to be heavily involved in the passing game, and not just screens and check downs. Weather or not he fits that criteria will be up to the coaching staff.

I would disagree. When he came out some of the so called experts said he could have been one of the better WRs in the draft. I don't see any reason he couldn't be one of the better slot receivers in the league if he played it full time. I'm not advocating for him to switching to receiver full time but I do think he needs to be used as a matchup weapon in the passing game. Isolate him on LBs and let him run WR type of routes, not just check downs and wheels.