AU-panther

but at some point he might decide that getting traded anywhere is better than not getting traded at all. Its really a big game of chicken and who blinks first.

I don't even expect that kind of fortune. There is nothing wrong with a pick like CAP or David Mayo. Decent backups on cheap, cost controlled contracts. Every pick doesn't have to be a star, the draft can be a cheap way to fill out your roster. Speaking of the Pats, they will often use late round pics to secure free agents before they are released by other teams.

He definitely played the comp pic game one year, but some teams such as the Ravens, Pats, and Packers play it almost every year. That is my idea of focusing on it.

People like to devalue comp picks, because for the most part, they are later round picks that do have small chances of working out but if you have neough of them overtime you should hit on some. Alsom some teams like to use them as currency for other things, either trading up in the draft or some teams will them to trade for vet players on cheap contracts.

I still think the Jets could make a major play for Watson. They have 5 first round picks in the next three years. Also their #2 pick this year is probably worth about 3 of our first round picks(think what it would cost for us to move up to 2).

correct me if I'm wrong but: 2014 zero 2015 2 2016 zero 2017 1 2018 zero Not sure if I would consider that valuing them. If I missed one let me know.

That is good news. Thank you for the update. I'll be curious to see how much our new GM values comp picks. Traditionally we haven't much.

I haven't' took time to watch 8 years of tape and figure out the percentages, but 3 articles talking about how we ran a lot of Tampa-2 and cover-2. It amazes me how little people on this forum can entertain the idea that they might possible be wrong. You are right about us running a cover 3 look often, but tampa-2 is a cover 3 look. Its Safety, MLB, Safety instead of CB, FS, CB. Luke was the perfect LB for it because he could diagnose play and then had the athletic ability to get deep. Also if the play is a run or short pass the MLB never gets deep and then it never looks like Tampa 2, it just looks like cover-2 Look at our personnel over the years. We invested heavily into Luke, we didn't' invest in safeties. Look at the type of corners we had. Everything about us screamed cover 2 and Tampa 2.

I realize that but it doesn't change the fact that we ran a lot of Tampa 2 and I referenced 3 articles that say the same thing. I also went back and watched film from Ron's time here.

My fear is we fall in love with some late round QB while coaching the Senior Bowl and we try to find our next Russel Wilson.

We can upgrade at LB without spending a 1st round pick on it. I'm not sure why that is so hard to understand. If anything it might be one of the easiest positions to upgrade without spending a 1st round pick on it.

all players take it personally when things don't end on their terms, that is human nature. This idea that Cam had this major influence on other players, especially in free agency, was always over played by this fan base. Players want to get paid, they want to win, and they want to live in a nice area.

I'm sitting here right now watching coach's tape, on a lot of passing downs our safeties are dropping and taking deep halves, which is a cover 2 look and often Luke will drop and cover deep third, which is a Tampa 2 look. Cover 3 your CBs would take deep thirds which very rarely happened, usually it was when we decided to blitz the SS we would actually show cover 2 and then rotate the SS down at the last minute. Go find some coaches tape and watch the passing downs. Here is another article that refer3enecs how much we play Tampa 2 A guide to beating the Carolina Panthers’ defense and the Tampa 2 - Pats Pulpit and another Super Bowl Handicapping: Carolina Panthers and the Cover-2 Defense (docsports.com)

go watch old coaches' film, our CBs often had safeties behind them. cover 2 - safeties split deep in halves Tampa 2 - basically same as cover 2 but MLB takes deep middle, creating a cover 3 look cover 3 - CBs take deep outer thirds with FS taking middle deep zone Like you said we ran all of it but there were a lot of Tampa 2 looks on passing downs. A lot of those plays where Luke was covering a TE on a seam that was Tampa 2.

If the team has no leverage as you say why would the team that Watson wants to go to offer that much. If Watson only wants to go to say the 49ers and if he really has all the leverage as you say why would they give market value for him? If they do get a good offer than the Texans actually do have leverage and that proves my point.

we ran a lot of it on passing downs and that is why you saw Luke making plays on passing downs in the deep third. He was the perfect LB for the system with his coverage skills. If we would have been playing cover 3 then the CBs would have had deep outer thirds, with FS in the deep third. Watch the tape, our CBs played underneath a lot with safeties behind them, that is why Norman played well at times. Our safeties were often just responsible for the outer deep thirds, that is why we didn't' put much value on them in the draft or free agency, their responsibility is rather limited in that system. Every team runs all of the formations, but our defense was built around Tampa 2 and was a huge part of the reason Luke flourished like he did.

yes we did, that is why Luke would cover deep 3rd. Cover 3 is thirds with FS taking deep middle, Tampa 2 is basically the same but the MLB takes deep middle. Here is an article that even talks about his affinity for it: How will the Redskins scheme change with Ron Rivera in 2020? | PFN (profootballnetwork.com) This is another reason we didn't value safeties as much as other teams. In a tampa 2 they are only responsible for the outside thirds.

People forgot that Luke also played a position what was extremely important in the system we ran. In a Tampa-2 style defense the MLB often has deep 3rd coverage responsibility. Luke had a lot of influence in the passing defense, that is where a lot of his value was. MLB might not really be as influential in the defense we run now. Positional value can heavily be influenced by scheme, we might already have our Kuechly with Chinn. This staff might value LB like our old staff did safety.

His value isn't going to change tremendously over the course of a year, especially if they take less now then they should. There will always be a market for elite QBs. A players earning window is somewhat short also so if he sits out too long he will cut into his own earnings. I do agree that between now and draft night will probably be the most likely time to trade him but my only point is if I'm the GM of the Texans I will let him sit out before I take a bad deal for him period. You are trying to compare an offer next year to a good offer this year. I'm saying before I would take a bad offer this year I will keep him and let him sit at home. I can get a bad offer next year also.

Even if he is a baller that still doesn't make the pick the best one. Maybe the guy that goes after his is also a baller but at a more valuable position.

I agree. I think sometimes with drafting you are better off with just "hard" rules. Chasing exceptions tend to get teams in trouble.

I don't' think it is enough. I think other teams can offer more. Also it doesn't give them a QB, which I would think would sweeten a deal more. What if the Jets would offer their 1st this year and the next two years. I could see the Jets willing to do that and its a lot better deal than ours. The Jets 1st this year is basically equal to three 1st from us. Honestly it would take more than that for us to trade up to #2. People need to realize that our #8 pick doesn't hold anywhere close to the same value as the Jets #2 or Dolphins #3. Not only do we have to make an offer that the Texan's like it has to be better than other teams. I'm thinking a starting point would be three 1st, two seconds, and a really good player on a good contract so either Brown or Burns. I'm not sure CMC even gets it done because some GMs aren't fans of RBs on big contracts regardless of who the RB is.

#8 pick is about $3.7m a year. 10th highest paid ILB, $11.8m 10th highest paid edge, $17m Do you want to replace a $11.8m FA or a $17m FA for $3.7m? Replacing the edge saves you about 50% more cap space. This doesn't even factor in the idea that the edge rusher is more valuable to adding wins to your team than the MLB, that's an entirely different discussion, this is just purely looking at replacement cost in free agency. On a side note, 10th RB is about $8m. Being right 1/2 on edge rusher is almost equal to being right 2/2 if you are drafting a LB and RB. If you draft high value positions you don't have to be right as often, you can use your money saved to fill spots in free agency. After the 1st round the chances of actually finding an above average player are so small you ignore this and start drafting guys you think can actually work out. Also in the first round the really early picks are paid so much more that you really need to consider positional value. For example the 3rd pick is almost $6m a year, if you draft a RB he is already almost a top 10 paid player at his position. You have basically lost the one huge advantage of draft picks, cheap value.

so....he invokes his no trade clause and he is still on the team he doesn't want to be on. I agree he does have some power but its not absolute like some people around here thing, especially in the short term. The Texans can easily do nothing and it really doesn't hurt them. so if he sits out they are fuged? Why? If they let him go for nothing they are also fuged. They were terrible with him last year, if they trade him they are probably going to still be terrible for the short term. Its not like they were expecting to win the Super Bowl this year. I don't think it hurts the Texan's reputation to wait at all. Their reputation is all ready garbage. If anything if they let him go for nothing they will just be made fun of more. If anything Watson is the one that might start to take a reputation hit, once the season rolls around and his teammates are out there playing and he is refusing to play some fans and media will start to turn on Watson. He could sit out all year and teams would still trade for him next offseason. Speaking of the draft there is a chance they don't trade him until the draft happens, if you trade before yo don't know how the picks are going to go. They might love Fields, and not Wilson, so they might not be willing to trade with Miami until they know Fields will be available at that pick. Same with Atlanta. There is a very good chance this could turn into a draft night trade. If they like Garoppolo then doing something before the draft make more sense, trading with the Jets would be more likely before the draft, because everyone pretty much agrees who is going first. A lot of people like to act like QB2 and QB3 are interchangeable but in reality a lot of teams will probably convince themselves they like one of them a lot more than the other.

The team does have some leverage, they don't' have to do anything. What if the Jets and 49ers make offers. Watson says he will go to the 49ers and then the Texans say no, we will trade you to the Jets or not at all. What does he do then?