Santee_Panther

This is like being mad about who your parents are.

5 hours ago, Smithers said:

He doesn’t have us by the balls.  He’s under a 5th year option.  Holding out means he loses millions and still doesn’t accrue a season.  Then back to the same spot he’s in right now.  We have a first year head coach and rookie QB.  I don’t think anyone believes this is a SB or bust team.  It’s not like Burns is the difference between a ring or a losing season.  Don’t overpay and handicap us for the next few years.  We have more holes to fill and no first rounder next year.  Let him hold out.  Let him lose millions.  Let the league forget about him by this time next year.  Or…he can agree to a deal that pays him in the top 8-10 for his position, which matches his performance.  

This is the way. As long as our team is willing to offer him close-but-not-quite top end money, I’m fine with that. BB doesn’t have a ton of options beyond holding out. But that’s not a great option either (missing out on almost $1mil per game and not accruing a season). 
 

He might miss this week, but I could see this getting sorted out pretty quickly too. Need Bosa to sign. 

3 hours ago, therealmjl said:

Jack of all trades master at none

I hear you on this. And this is the key point. But if you watch a video on what it is people think have made Belicheck great at building defenses, it is taking tweeners that can be a multi-tool player. And then completely overhaul the game plan every week. Specifically based on their opponents’ weaknesses.
 

Think about how different that is to a coach like Rivera or Fox that have their game plan and make sure the players can fit the plan. 

Tweener players offen are a lot less expensive. Granted you will always need a lockdown corner, nothing hybrid about that. But these DE/LB hybrids and LB/S hybrids if used properly can really be dynamic. Hopefully we have the right coaches to game plan!

Admittedly I’m a UNC fan, and last night watching the game heard a lot of talk about the Star hybrid LB position.

It sounds a lot like Chinn, as a hybrid safety, LB, nickel corner.

So I dug into some old articles and it sounds like a staple of the Saban, Kirby Smart defenses, founded in principles from Bilicheck. 
 

Some snipets from an old article about UGA:

Instead of playing a true nickel defense, however, and replacing that linebacker with a fifth defensive back, who might be a weak link against the run, the STAR position is utilized. The STAR should have the quickness to cover the slot, sound tackling ability and can rush the passer when needed.
 

This is part of the reason the STAR position is important for the Bulldogs; it isn’t one that players can simply be taught how to play. Because of the demanding nature of the position, whoever plays STAR has to possess a unique set of natural qualities that aren’t too common.

Players who have the speed of a safety, the tackling ability of a linebacker and can cover like a nickel back are coveted prospects on the recruiting trail. A program like Alabama can sell elite prospects on the success other well-known players had at that position. That is an advantage that Smart is hoping to gain at Georgia.

Article from 2017:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/georgia-football/star-position-important-for-georgia-spring-practice/
 

And another article with quotes from Saban talking about Bilicheck’s system, specifically the star:

https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/2012/08/alabama_defense_101_nickel_sta.html

They also have the Broncos tied with the Chiefs. 

2 minutes ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

I was agreeing with this until you mentioned Howell.

 

Is Howell a superstar now? I swear people on this board talk about Howell like he's the next great QB.

 

I think it is more along the lines of we could have not traded up and still gotten either Corral or Howell in the 4th.

32 minutes ago, Basbear said:

Its 35% normal turn over rate(yep that high) for nearly all teams, it increases with a new staff. I bet its in the 40s if you compare the week 1 2022 roster. off the top whats new- 2 QBs, 5 WRs, 4 OLmen, 4 DLmen,  5 OLB/LBs, 2 new CBs, 1 safety etc. 

If you look at his contact, he along with Ian thomas, they will be cut following this year(low dead money, high salary 2024= cut)

From a cap perspective, agree on Thomas, but not Corbett. Corbett would have a $11.6 mil dead cap figure if we cut him after this season. We backloaded his contract plus added void years. He’s likely with us for this season and next.

11 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Seriously?  

We structured his contract to have over 12 million in dead cap hits combined in the 2 years after his contract was over?

For a guard?  What the hell?!?!?!

His cap hit was only $3mil last year. Will be $5mil this year. $10mil next year (oof). And then he will no longer be under contact and count almost $8mil against the ‘25 cap. 
 

It was basically a 3 year $26mil contract, but backloaded and spread out over 4 years. If he has similar production as last year again this year and next, not bad. But if not…

3 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Ouch, 16 million dead cap hit to lose him this year, 11 next year, and still even almost 8 and 4 in the two years following. 

Easily here this year and next, and honestly at an almost 8 million dead cap hit (when he'd only be just under 4 million towards the cap to stay in 2025) even if he's a backup then he'd be better to be kept around than lose an extra 4 million on the cap

Unfortunately that almost $8mil “dead cap” after next season are void years. He’s only under contract through next season. This was kicking the can maneuvering due to our tough cap situation last year.  

The starting defensive backfield has a chance to be really good. Bell, Woods, Chinn, Horn and Jackson. That’s solid. 

And we know Shaq and Luvu should be pretty good. And Burns/Brown can be elite.

So I guess it boils down to the new guys. Can Shuttle and Williams step in and step up.

1 minute ago, Carl Spackler said:

Good players but a ton of holes at different positions. Shaky roster makeup at best this year. 

I don’t disagree with you. But, it’s year one of a rebuild, and we have cap flexibility going into next year. I’m optimistic. Of course, there will be some bumps, but if Bryce is good, we will be good. 

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Blackshear got left off as 3rd RB.  Guess his name is too long to fit the box.

Poor copy/paste job on my part left him off! Apologies.

Quick Observations:

1) 12 starters on offense, should help us score! Kidding. 3 WRs (Chark, Mingo and Thielen) and 2 TEs (Hurst and Thomas) are listed as starters. Maybe kept Sullivan because they view him as Hurst’s backup? I presume Thomas is more of a blocker. 
 

2) 5 DL (3 starters) but 6 OLBs (2 starters) seems like strange math. Hopefully that’s because they really like Barno/Haynes/YGM and the rookie Johnson.

3) I know it has been discussed, but will be interesting to see how they use Chinn alongside Bell and Woods.

Any team can pluck any practice squad player. The only caveat is that the player has to go to the active roster (you can’t pull from PS directly to PS). So we could grab him back if we want to. (Not that we will, but we can).

From The Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/8/29/23848577/ranking-best-worst-nfl-defenses-2023-season
 

5. Carolina Panthers

Another big swing! I’m so ready to get myself on @OldTakesExposed in like Week 7 if this defense stinks.

But here’s the case for Carolina. The Panthers have young, ascending talent at premium positions, and they complemented that talent with solid veterans. Up front, the Panthers have edge rusher Brian Burns and defensive tackle Derrick Brown, a pair of first-round picks, and I liked the decision to add veteran pass rusher Justin Houston in August. Linebacker Frankie Luvu was a fun player last season. Jaycee Horn, the team’s first-round pick in 2021, has the tools to be a no. 1 corner if he stays healthy. Jeremy Chinn, Vonn Bell, and Xavier Woods give the Panthers versatility at safety.

The Panthers finished 25th in defensive DVOA last year. But they added defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who comes over from Denver, where he quietly coached the Broncos defense to a no. 10 DVOA ranking.

Last year was a disaster for the Panthers organization, with former head coach Matt Rhule getting fired in the middle of the season. They faced a tough schedule of opposing offenses and ranked 25th in EPA on takeaways. This year, the Panthers face the fourth-easiest overall schedule. I think they’ll make a big leap defensively and surprise people. When I’m wrong, you can ruthlessly mock me.

If the argument is simply Chark cannot be relied upon to be a true WR1, ok, fine. He’s had an injury history. 

But, news flash, we traded away our WR1 this year. This is year 1 of a rebuild.

Also, the free agent market for WRs is always bare of young, good WR1s. 

Chark provides excellent upside with low cost. The only risk is that he might get hurt. Which is true if any player. 

So we sit at 56. At least three cuts to go.

We have 7 WRs with the new guy from KC coming in. Derek Wright iffy?

5TEs (if you can’t FB Ricci as a TE). Hurst, Thomas and Tremble appear safe. Sullivan out?

DLine- set with Tuttle, Brown, DeShaun Williams and likely Stallworth. No clue on Thurman and Ray.

QB- keep three?!??

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The guys I have the most sympathy for are the guys who are going to make the initial 53 but then get bounced by subsequent roster additions from the rubbish pile of the newly flooded FA market. What a gut punch that has to be.

And right now we sit at 56. What a crappy day to have to sit and worry. (Really for the next couple days). 

Ironically the Panthers gave up the 137th pick in ‘22 plus this year’s 3rd rd pick for Corral. 

Howell was drafted at 144. I hope the person responsible for that decision is no longer in the building. 

Players don’t have a ton of leverage in this situation. He’s under contract for this season ($16mil). If he doesn’t play, he doesn’t get paid. Plus the Panthers can tag him for two seasons beyond this year. He wants an extension (which will come with a big signing bonus). 
 

His career earnings thus far are $13.5 mil over four years. Is he going to not get paid $1mil each game he sits out? Not likely. 
 

On the one hand, he’s probably glad Bosa is about to reset the market. But, on the other, he’s probably bummed that he has to wait for Bosa. 

The 2nd rd pick for Darnold was a bit high, but at the time worth the upside. Problem with that situation was the 5th year option with zero evidence he was decent.

For Corral, I’d be curious to see why the team was so much higher on him than Howell. Sam playing well for Wash and us not needing to trade the 4th/future 3rd for him is a tough pill.

But again, you have to keep taking shots for that potential high end QB. Hopefully we got it right this time. And if not, the future draft capital lost isn’t terrible. 12 months from now we will have a 2nd year QB (hopefully w promise) and only a 2nd rounder owed. 
 

There are always gaps/holes in a roster, but if Bryce can play that concern is done (and on a cheap rookie contract), and we have some good pieces and cap flexibility. A big if, but that’s where we are. 

A franchise will remain in purgatory until they have a good QB. All of those moves were made to try to get a QB.

If Bryce is good, what we paid to trade up won’t matter. (And thankfully most of the payment has been made already, with this coming year’s first and the following year’s 2nd remaining “due”).

As we sit here today, we haven’t mortgaged the future. We took a big swing on Bryce though. We have enough draft capital and cap room to surround him with talent. This is year 1 of a rebuild. 

“He has the ability to slow down time”

Based on the official depth chart, which is subject to change—

WR: Byrd was above Shi, of course injury could change that

OL: Mays and Jensen look like locks as 1/2 stingers. Zavala back in 3rd string, that injury hurting him. And we can only carry 9 active to start because Corbett has to be on the first roster even if he goes to IR. Surprised to see Jordan so high on chart.

Edge: Houston jumps to first string without having practiced! Surprised to see Leota back at 5th string, hopefully he continues to impress and move up. 

CB: Taylor and Thomas-Oliver seem to be the clear choice, with Wright way back at 4th string (Miller and Milton ahead of him).

1 hour ago, Proudiddy said:

WR i still think Shi has great potential...  he started out hot last season and then after that big drop in that ine game early it was like his confidence crashed and he got the yips.  So i give him the edge over Byrd.  Yes, Byrd is a great weapon as a speed guy, but if Shi can play up to his potential that he showed in flashes last season, he reminds me of a young Emmanuel Sanders.

OG, Nash is gonna make it.

Edge, you left out Luvu.  I feel Barno is gonna make it.  Haven't heard much from him this TC but he showed a lot of promise in limited action last season and his athleticism is otherworldly.  I actually think he would make it over DJ at this point based off what we know from Barno and what has been reported about DJ so far.  And I would venture to say, both may actually make it over Haynes despite Haynes starting out higher on the depth chart because of age and draft pick investment.  Also, Leota and the other UDFA guy we signed at the end of last season whose name escapes me this second are making a lot of noise.

And CB, I still believe in Taylor and love Wright's potential.  I'm keeping them.  I always liked STO, but I think he has kind of reached his potential.

I was considering Luvu as an ILB, so didn’t mention him. Though I recognize he rushes a fair amount.