Evolution, Adaptation, and the Mike Shula Offense

[PhillyB]

Approximately 2.5 million years ago a major shift occurred among earth's proto-human species. Up until that point, the most advanced form of primates were Australopithecines. Large and robust, they employed arboreal physical features to forage in the trees and, to a limited extent, the ability to walk upright to gather food and hunt game. But fossil evidence shows a sudden explosion in ability and habit, the result of which is the relatively quick emergence of a new species - Homo habilis. Marked by an increased brain-mass-to-body-size ratio and the first recorded use of tools, H. habilis is roundly agreed upon as beginnings of something new, something almost human.

Much debate circles around the process of becoming human. Most of it has focused on key foods that allowed for evolutionary selection and adaptation to acquiring it; the most notorious one is the idea that hunting vertebrates was the trigger for the explosion of human traits. The model goes like this:

1. Meat is an incredibly valuable part of the diet;
2. Individuals best equipped to hunt meat are those that can stand tallest and walk the longest distances;
3. Individuals that can stand the tallest and walk the longest distances breed more, and nature selects for those traits;
4. Thus, populations gradually become better equipped to hunt.

This model is generally accepted. Using it as a base, others hypothesize that, for instance, the invention of fire and cooking led to the formation of social solidarity, male-female pair bonds, and even language; those are, of course, heavily debatable. But the above model endures, and can be summed up as follows:

Adapt to your ecological niche or you're dead.

The same is also true in football.

 

Scientists confirm Andrew Luck is the closest living relative of H. habilis

 

Much like the survival of a species is dependent on its ability to adapt to the often-changing environment around it, offensive coordinators in the NFL must act and react according to defensive situations and gameplans, both in the short term (in individual games) and the long term (throughout the course of the season, or several seasons.) Our own Mike Shula remains enigmatic precisely because his apparent short-term flaws must be weighed against what appear to be long-term adaptive strengths. Let's break them down.

 

Short-term Shula

Last week the Titans came in with a very specific game plan: make up for the injury-wracked cornerback position by sending blitzers on nearly every down. It was a very good plan, actually, taking advantage of an extremely underrated defensive line able to hold gaps well enough allow linebackers through. In fact, if it wasn't for several defensive gaffes (like playing unblitzed zone coverage against Greg Olsen) and a Carolina defensive line that controlled the line of scrimmage all day, Mularkey may have sent the Panthers packing with their first loss of the season.

Mularkey's defense was relentless, and Mike Shula went three quarters without making adjustments to counter it. The obvious call for constant pressure is screens; you let the blitzers cross the line of scrimmage and then lob it over their heads into a convoy. If you don't do that you keep in extra guys to protect and release them upfield, or at least designate a hot receiver to occupy the vacated zone.

Instead we saw this:

 

 

Four go routes, developing at various phases twenty yards downfield, and what looks like a very deep, complex option break to the sideline by the tight end. No hot routes, no designated protection, all in the face of an incredibly obvious blitzing situation and three linebackers telegraphing the impending rush.

The play, predictably, was a sack. The Titans tallied five of them on the day, and would've had more if not for Cam's escapability. Shula's adjustments did not come until midway through the first quarter when he called a smoke screen and a few complementary underneath routes. This kind of rigidity has been symptomatic of Shula's tenure as offensive coordinator, and an enduring criticism of his ability to adapt to defensive schemes in a timely manner.

 

Long-term Shula

Calls to unseat Mike Shula have been a constant since week four of the 2013 season. But 2015's 4th-ranked Panthers offense has critics doubting their own fiery prognostications, supporters crowing their final victory, and everyone else trying to figure out whether Cam's outstanding play is making Shula look good, vice versa, or a combination of the two.

Whoever gets the credit, and however deficient he may be in game-time adjustments one thing is clear: Mike Shula has evolved. He has adjusted in two critical ways that have aided in the success of this year's offense.

1) He's given Cam options at the line. Much has been made in years past of Shula's inflexible play-calls; conversation has buzzed around microanalysis of Shula's off-the-cuff remarks about Cam's frustration at play calls. But around the beginning of this season we began seeing a much different dynamic: play calls coming in at a much faster rate, leaving time for on-field diagnosis. No longer does Cam walk up to the line with 0:04 on the play clock to point out the blitzing linebacker. Instead Shula gives Cam a predetermined suite of plays based on the defensive personnel that Cam can select based on the defensive alignment.

Such an instance took place midway through the first quarter. In the following frame, the offense lines up with a play call that, based on the personnel, is probably something like the following. Notice Stewart shifting out to a slot position from the backfield. But Cam looks at the formation and immediately knows something's up. "No sir, this is some bullshit," he says, probably out loud, seeing defensive lineman standing up and linebackers clustered oddly and showing blitz.

 

 

In past years the play clock would've been at zero already, so Cam would've had no choice but to snap the ball. Instead he walks up the the line and changes the play to another in the situational set. If those linebackers are blitzing, the standing lineman may be getting ready to drop into coverage, into the flats to ruin any dump-offs or into the middle of the field to jump any crossers. Cam approaches the formation and changes the play. Notice the MLB here changing the play as a result (or pretending to.)

 

 

The new play retains the formation of the old one, but with new route combos. Most notable are Stewart and Dickson, who now stay in as blockers before releasing upfield as blitz outlets.

 

 

Ed Dickson's spot keeps the SLB low and Philly Brown's route keeps the deep safety high, and the throw to Greg Olsen is predictably successful, for a critical first down. Carolina kept the momentum and went on to score. In years past, we may not have seen the offense have time to recover.

2) Shula has abandoned bad plays. This is his other adaptation, in the truest sense of the word. Behaviors that don't result in positive gain are selected against by nature and NFL front offices, and Shula has apparently felt the pressure. The Bersin-on-bubble-screens trope is a thing of the past. So are Cotchery's misfit go routes. Rather than forcing players into variable roles because of a philosophy, Shula has recognized weaknesses on the roster and instead adapted the personnel groups accordingly. John Fox made that precise error for the latter half of his tenure here; his failure to adapt was ultimately his downfall.

 

Will Mike Shula's ability to adapt earn him staying power in the NFL? That remains to be seen. The good here doesn't necessarily mask the bad. But like Rivera, he is learning, adapting, changing in ways that make him and his team the most fit to sit at the top of the pile. Homo habilis' adaptation begat Homo erectus, which begat Homo neanderthalensis, which gave way to modern humans; is it too much to hope that it'll allow Shula and the Panthers to go 10-0?

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[t96]

3rd ranked offense not 4th.

[KB_fan]

Good article.  One minor quibble or perhaps more of a question.  You wrote:

Quote

Mularkey's defense was relentless, and Mike Shula went three quarters without making adjustments to counter it.

Yet, we scored TDs on our 1st 2 possessions, so it seemed as if we did have some early success against their D.

But yes, after those 1st two drives, we had 4 drives end in punts, and two red-zone attempts end in field goals, before again having a very nice TD-scoring drive in the 4th.

What was different with our offense and Titans' defense on drives 1 & 2 when we moved the ball 143 yards and scored two TDs vs. drives 3 through 6 when we gained a net total of 14 yards?  Did Tenn make defensive changes in the 2nd quarter?

Anyway, I agree very much with your thesis about Shula's successful adaptation in the long-term picture.  It's been nice to see.game plans seemingly well-designed for our offensive strengths & weaknesses.

[ThPantherFan]

The only reason Shula is looking good at times is because Cam is allowed to make his adjustments.

[London Loves Luke]

48 minutes ago, ThPantherFan said:

The only reason Shula is looking good at times is because Cam is allowed to make his adjustments.

I'm wondering when some Huddlers will evolve into Homo Habilis...

[Rags]

54 minutes ago, ThPantherFan said:

The only reason Shula is looking good at times is because Cam is allowed to make his adjustments.

Or you know

Both Cam and Shula have improved. 

[SgtJoo]

We're only 10th in Football Outsiders' Offensive DVOA by the way.

Quote

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

 

[Marguide]

I am a bit surprised at the lack of original artwork given last week's events. Something involving Ms Plorin, her daughter, and our so-called oversexed QB.

Unfortunately, I'm challenged by stick figures, so no help will be coming from this corner. 

Any aspiring artists out there in Huddlelandia?

[Moorgan]

The old adage of "If you aren't progressing, you are regressing" seems apropos. Certainly no one can deny the progress of the team over last year. Even more obvious is the amazing fact that they've done it with key injuries throughout the season. And while yes the evolution of the football mechanics, whether it be play calling, design, maturation, experience or what have you, the evolution of the locker room seems to me the most telling.

I've not seen a team this together, this cohesive, this determined in my foggy memory. There is so much about this team that reminds of a well drilled and combat tested unit in the military. In fact, I think military analogies for this team are very appropriate with the state and team ties to the military. They remind me of a unit that has seen it all, believes in each other and recognizes their own strengths and weaknesses. In short, they seem to embody the motto Keep Pounding as well, if not better, than the 2003 Cardiac Cats. Even the Huddle and Roaring Riot have eclipsed the other fan bases. What a glorious time to be a Panthers fan...both on and off the field. Great job Philly...again.

[Khyber53]

We grow, we learn, we adapt, we win, we thrive.

Can't argue with success. 

[jayflip]

What begat Dat Alice?

[Ricky Spanish]

3 hours ago, SgtJoo said:

We're only 10th in Football Outsiders' Offensive DVOA by the way.

 

"Only" 10th

Psh, top 10 offense and top 10 defense?

Awesome.

[UpstatePanther]

1 hour ago, jayflip said:

What begat Dat Alice?

i believe he was the bastard child of a Cajun prostitute and an alligator...

[wud35]

10 minutes ago, UpstatePanther said:

i believe he was the bastard child of a Cajun prostitute and an alligator...

Not that there's anything wrong with that.