Bob McGinn: Scout’s take on QBs

[Martin]

This is from the Athletic. Strongly recommend it, worth paying for. 
 

 

Quarterbacks (6)

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-foot-6, 220 pounds): In three seasons, he passed for 90 touchdowns and ran for another 18. “Rare arm talent,” said one scout. “He’s humble, a faith-based guy. He’ll handle anything being the franchise quarterback. There are a lot of people who say he’s the best quarterback to come out since Andrew Luck. Is he a product of the system? Everything that comes out of there says he really is smart. This year, he started getting his touch back. His accuracy was better.”

Lawrence went through an individual workout Feb. 12, four days before undergoing surgery to repair labrum damage in his non-throwing shoulder. Expected to be ready by mid-July. “He is a great athlete and has a strong arm,” a second scout said. “The guy has a chance to be great. But you break him down, game after game, he’s not an accurate passer. Where he has problems is inside the numbers. Inconsistent touch. Is he Josh Allen or Blake Bortles? Bortles was a big-time athlete, but he wasn’t accurate. People were all excited about size and the way Bortles could run. … The ACC is not a good league, OK? The only real competition they (Clemson) get every year is in the playoffs. He didn’t play well. Even when they beat Ohio State, he beat them running, not passing. They totally shut the guy down.”

Finished second in Heisman Trophy voting in 2020, seventh in ’19. “I’d take Joe Burrow over Trevor Lawrence,” said a third scout. “He was a better player. More of a playmaker. The ACC stinks. Everything is so easy for him. This was for three years. Now when he played LSU, Ohio State this year, Miami, Virginia Tech, there were times he had to speed up and he looked average. When you put him against other elite competition, he has not stepped up. When Deshaun Watson was there and he played Alabama two years in a row, that guy was by far the best player on the field. A superstar. I never saw that with Trevor Lawrence. On designed things he can run, but if he has to quickly get out of trouble, he does not do that well. If he threw for 300 yards in a game, 250 of it would be just the quick design of the offense. Their coordinator (Tony Elliott) is amazing.”

Zach Wilson, Brigham Young (6-foot-2, 210 pounds):Three-star recruit. “He will not be the first pick in the draft, but he should be,” one scout said. “Love him. He’s just a natural. He just has the movement, the looseness, the throwing from all angles, the jumping around in the pocket. His release is quick as hell. He can throw the ball. He is a nifty, elusive type in the pocket. He can run a little bit.” Battled injuries as the starter in 2018 and ’19, and underwent surgeries to repair a labrum and hand. Vastly improved in 2020 with an NFL passer rating of 138.2, up from 84.9 in 2019.

Some scouts worry that his slight frame might lead to durability issues. “How big is he?” asked one. “He’s only going to be like 205 (pounds). He may be only 6-(foot)-1. He’s been spoiled a little bit, too.” A fourth scout described him as a combination of Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Retorted another scout: “There’s a vast difference (to Mahomes). The physical skills of throwing the football, he’s not even close to humming the ball like Patrick. I don’t know if he’s innately competitive and tough as Patrick. Patrick’s probably smarter, too.”

Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-foot-3, 228 pounds): Spent his freshman season at Georgia before transferring and becoming a two-year starter. “He’s a modern-day RPO quarterback,” said one scout. “He’s a naturally accurate ball thrower and the ball gets out of his hands, too. He’s not a runner like Lamar (Jackson), but he’s way better than Jalen Hurts was. He will have to learn progressions. Very athletic. Very cool demeanor. Plus, he’s sturdy.”

Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. “Love his makeup, the playmaking, his competitiveness, the movement,” a second scout said. “He’s poised. He stepped up in the big games. He’s just not a quick processor in the pocket. He’s more methodical. That’s a worry. He had the streak in the Indiana game: ‘What is this guy doing?’” Passed for 67 TDs and ran for another 19. “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a third scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play, and on the next play, I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom (of the round).”

Passer rating was 127.6. “He played his worst game in the Big Ten Championship (game) against Northwestern, yet they still found a way to win,” said a fourth scout. “People are saying they don’t even belong there (in the playoff), and he plays a damn near perfect game against Clemson. In the national championship, he carried them. What would be ideal for him would be to go somewhere and not have to play the first year. But the physical talent is so wow, they’re going to see that in practice and say, ‘This guy has to play.’ There needs to be a tremendous amount of growth, which I think he is capable of.”

Ohio State’s Justin Fields. (Tim Fuller / USA Today)

Mac Jones, Alabama (6-foot-2½, 217 pounds): Started the final four games of 2019 for an injured Tua Tagovailoa, then went all the way in ’20 for the national champions. “They may have had the best offense this year in the history of college football, but Joe Burrow had a great supporting cast, too,” said one scout. “He is totally amazing when you break him down. Disciplined person, excellent work ethic, goal-oriented. He has a feel (for the rush). The great ones are not big-time runners. Poised, confident. I think he’ll probably go middle of the first.”

Completed a record 77.4 percent of his passes in 2020. “He could be the steal of the bunch,” said a second scout. “Nobody’s saying, ‘Hey, he’s this guy,’ but there are some Tom Brady comparisons.” Countered a third scout: “How can anyone compare him to Brady? I wouldn’t compare anybody to Tom Brady. Ever. How many guys with similar tools failed? If this guy’s the next Brady, trade your next seven first-round picks. Give up your head coach. Trade your owner.” His passer rating of 143.1 in 2020 left his career mark at 138.2. “When I watched him, I said this was A.J. McCarron all over again,” a fourth scout said. “The offense. The players around him. He’s got a slow delivery. He labors in his movements. If he’s in rhythm and everything is working for him, he’s a machine. I just question everything about his natural talent, his playmaking, his ability to face pressure and make plays.”

Practiced at the Senior Bowl but missed the game because of an ankle injury. “Honestly, I wasn’t very impressed with him at the Senior Bowl,” said a fifth scout. “I just didn’t think he stood out at all. He stood out in a bad way. He didn’t look very strong. He didn’t look very athletic. He just didn’t look like a starter you want in the NFL.”

Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-foot-4, 226 pounds): Redshirted in 2018, started 16 games for the FCS national champions in ’19 and started the Bison’s only game in ’20. “He’s really talented,” one scout said. “I’m not going to say he throws it better than Trevor Lawrence, but he definitely throws it better than Zach Wilson and as well as (Justin) Fields arm strength-wise. Josh Allen was more talented, but a year ago Lance was a much more efficient player. Josh threw interceptions in college, especially against good defenses. Lance definitely fits the mold of what you want to look for. The natural, God-given ability, he has it.”

Posted a passer rating of 130.1 in 2019 while running for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs. “He’s a better runner than Lawrence and the same level as Fields,” said a second scout. “He’s an aggressive runner. That’s the problem. He takes on people all the time. Physically, he’s gifted. He’s a myth, a one-year-and-one-game starter.” Playing in Fargo Oct. 3 against a Central Arkansas team that finished 5-4, Lance was 15-of-30 for 149 yards, two TDs and one interception. He did rush 15 times for 143 yards. Declared for the draft three days later. “He should not have played that game,” said a third scout. “He looked awful. Looked like a fourth-round pick. No accuracy. No pocket poise. He fumbled the ball. He looked like a developmental backup guy. Straight-line type athlete. He reminded me of Jameis Winston where it’s not really a fluid, natural motion or natural movement in the pocket. He kind of has to gather his whole body to throw.”

Two scouts said they’d take him over Jordan Love. “You like the taste, but it’s a small sample,” a fourth scout said. “I like his tools. I think he can be good, but would I bank on it? There’s not enough information for me. A lot of unknowns there that would give me pause.”

Kyle Trask, Florida (6-foot-4½, 240 pounds): High-school backup in Manvel, Texas, who was offered by the Gators based on his showing at a camp. “He didn’t even start in high school,” said one scout. “He’s lucky to be a starting quarterback. He has numbers, but I think there’s better out there.” Redshirted in 2016, broke his left foot in August 2017 and broke his right foot in September 2018. Took over the starting job in 2019. “Reminds me of Jared Goff,” said a second scout. “Pocket quarterback with height, arm strength, accuracy. High three-quarters release, quick release. Tight ball. Throws well in and outside the numbers. He can move around the pocket, but he doesn’t have quickness. He does have good pocket awareness. I think he’s a first-rounder.”

Posted a passer rating of 117.1. Improved each year. “Similar to (Mac) Jones,” a third scout said. “He’s got a little more moxie than Mac. He’s a game manager. Average arm. He’s gets in rhythm good, but if he has to reset and throw, it’s over with. He’s a backup type. If he ends up starting, you’ve got a bad team.” Tossed three interceptions for the Gators’ depleted offense in their first three possessions of the Cotton Bowl, his final game. Said a fourth scout: “We see him as a backup. He can’t move. Totally immobile.”

[Shocker]

Love these types of breakdowns from scouts.  Thanks for posting.

[TheSpecialJuan]

That was great 

[Varking]

Sold me further on Fields. This makes it sound in terms of arm strength that Wilson has less of an arm than Fields and Lance and I just don’t see that. Wilson’s arm pops. I’ve watched every Fields snap for three years and his arm is great but Wilson has some zip you don’t see often. 

[MHS831]

22 minutes ago, Varking said:

Sold me further on Fields. This makes it sound in terms of arm strength that Wilson has less of an arm than Fields and Lance and I just don’t see that. Wilson’s arm pops. I’ve watched every Fields snap for three years and his arm is great but Wilson has some zip you don’t see often. 

They all have some red flags and question marks, but this year these QBs will be broken down more than other years--so many people want a QB, so many people will spend the next 7 weeks breaking these guys apart.

It is funny that so many scouts differ on the same player--they represent different systems, however.

And fwiw about the scout making obvious statements about Jones and Brady---

He would have said the same thing about Tom Brady in college.   In college, Tom Brady was not the next Tom Brady---hoping that makes sense.  I get his point--and I fear we could be passing on a really good QB or we could be taking Clausen II.  That is why I hope Rhule and Co.  did their homework.  However, the scout talks about players' physical tools when comparing them to Brady--you need to compare the mental tool.  That is what I speculate to be the reason Brady is Brady--because he does have tools others had--

I love this time of year---the more I dig and explicate, the more I am wrong. 

[MHS831]

Fields is starting to sound like a slightly smaller version of Cam to me.  The processing concerns bother me, as is the comment about throwing off the back foot.  He holds the ball too long as well. No doubt he has the gun and the wheels.  Does he have the noodle?  Throwing off the back foot and holding the ball too long are often signs of poor anticipation and/or slow processing.  He needs the right coach because he is capable of learning and you can't teach the physical tools.  I am starting to think he is the guy if we can get him--because 1 and 2 will be gone.

None of these qbs are finished products--and I agree, they all need to sit for a bit. 

I will be very interested to see what goes down with Trubiski later next week.  That might be a good indicator of how hungry the market is for QB or how much faith there is in this QB group. 

I cannot make up my mind about Lance---I wanted him badly a few months ago, and now these comments are talking me out of it.  Jones---boom or bust-I think it depends on the coach and system that selects him.  Fields?  He has the tools.  Trevor?  Could he be overrated?  I'd still take him, but his accuracy issues in a fairly weak conference etc.  Wilson?  Again, he needs the right team and system.  NYJ's could ruin him.

So what is the best move?  Free agency?  Draft?  If so, who?   Popcorn ready.

Edited March 11, 2021 by MHS831

[thefuzz]

Good writeup.

 

Thank you.

Just confirms my thoughts...these guys make me nervous.  No wonder Stafford's price tag was so high.

 

[CanePantherHornet]

Everyone besides Lawrence has issues that make me worried. 

Mac Jones lack of athletic ability. Zach Wilson's injury history. Trey Lance's competition level and accuracy issues. Justin Field having underwhelming results despite having so much natural talent himself and around him. We are not getting Trevor and if we don't get Watson we're going to have to choose which of these guys are the most likely to be able to overcome their flaws and trade up for them.

[Martin]

I’m the same way, I continue to go back and forth between Wilson, Fields and Lance in the first round. Not interested in Mac until maybe later.

It is going to be a wild draft this year, and part of me love it.

[Basbear]

I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play, and on the next play, I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom (of the round).”

Thats my same take on Fields and I hate those types. I remember posting in the first Fields thread, "He looks like a UDFA", then the next game "He looks like a top three pick"

Ive had him as a late 20s pick since and have not moved any. 

Lance is great stuff as well, I like that taste comment. 

 

[Mother Grabber]

I guess Simms isn't the only one to put Wilson above Lawrence.

[Mr. Scot]

McGinn is generally a good read.

[Madwolf]

A lot of good and a lot of scary.

This is why I'm so against trading the world for these guys right now. It's incredible how different these guys put these QBs draft positions.

We're a team that has a lot of holes to fill, and I don't see us in a position to take shots.

A QB is the most important position in football, but if Cleveland proved anything It's that you can spend the better part of 3 decades drafting QB after QB and you can doom them all to failure without a team to compliment them.

[woahfraze]

Of all these QBs, I like Wilson the best.  I was watching JT O'Sullivan's QB School on YouTube, and you can see the arm strength obviously, but he really excels at throwing with anticipation.  Lots of throws where he threw a guy open by releasing the ball before the WR's route broke.  And he's got really good footwork and sneaky athleticism.  And for all those reasons, he's probably going #2 and will be out or reach unless we trade a boatload to get up to that spot. 

I like Fields next best.  I think the concerns over not being able to make multiple reads is overblown. He can go through progressions; he just isn't asked to do it all that often.  But that's also true of most college QBs.  People point to the Indiana game as a red flag, but if you watched Brett Kollman break down that entire tape, Indiana threw a ton of exotic pressures at them and OSU's offensive line had some major issues picking them up consistently, so he dealt with spotty protection all day.  He made a few bad decisions in that game too.  He'll need to clean that up/get more consistent.  But the ability is there.

I think Lawrence is really good, but I just don't understand the generational prospect billing that he gets.  I like Lance too. Everything I've read about him makes it seem like he'll work to fulfill the promise that his physical potential holds.  I'd be happy with all four of these guys.  A lot of it just comes down to preference.