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Some good roster analysis from Gantt


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1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

By forgoing the opportunity to draft a franchise QB we did mortgage the future on Darnold. Ultimately, this draft will be judged by A) whether Darnold pans out and B) whether Fields and/or Jones become legit franchise QBs. If Darnold continues to be bad while one or both of them prove legit then oh wee mayne. Not a good look and not good news for the future of the franchise.

 

Pretty much.

We had the opportunity to draft one of:  Fields, Jones, Darnold.  We "drafted" Darnold.  If he fails and one (or both) of the other two succeed, that's a black eye on what would otherwise be considered a successful offseason.  Unfortunately for the front office, QB is the make or break position.

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2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Why is the concept of "opportunity cost" so difficult for some to grasp? 

Because it is all conjecture and opinion until these guys actually take the field and play. I would have been happy with Fields, but I will be shocked if he plays as well as Herbert did as a rookie. Jones was a big no for me so any potential gain from an alternate choice is unknown. Darnold has as much chance at succeeding as Fields, maybe more.

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4 minutes ago, Panthera onca said:

Because it is all conjecture and opinion until these guys actually take the field and play. I would have been happy with Fields, but I will be shocked if he plays as well as Herbert did as a rookie. Jones was a big no for me so any potential gain from an alternate choice is unknown. Darnold has as much chance at succeeding as Fields, maybe more.

Opportunity cost is very real. If Darnold continues to suck (honestly fairly likely based on NFL history) and Fields and/or Jones is legit (unknown, but probably pretty decent at least one of them works out based on NFL history of top 15 QB picks) then this decision is not gonna look good in the rearview unless Darnold turns out to be Clausen level bad netting us a top pick who becomes an NFL MVP (definitely the slimmest of odds discussed in this post).

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16 minutes ago, BrianS said:

Pretty much.

We had the opportunity to draft one of:  Fields, Jones, Darnold.  We "drafted" Darnold.  If he fails and one (or both) of the other two succeed, that's a black eye on what would otherwise be considered a successful offseason.  Unfortunately for the front office, QB is the make or break position.

Exactly the same as if either of those other 2 failed. 

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47 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

People lost their minds when I said the Panthers have mortgaged their future on Sam Darnold, then Gantt of Panthers.com writes...

The Panthers did a lot of things over the weekend to make Darnold's life more secure. That's good news, but it also puts the bright light back on their quarterback.

By not drafting one, and picking up Darnold's fifth-year option, they've cast their lot with the former Jets first-rounder, and done their best to insulate him. Now it's on him to prove that he can grow into the job and earn that trust. It may not be New York, but there's still plenty of pressure.

That's NFL political talk for "mortgaging the future".

I don't know about Darnold having the future mortgaged by this, honestly. First, we grab him for basically a second rounder. Secondly, all of the guys we've picked up are foundational pieces that if they work out and he doesn't, they'll still be in place for the next guy.

Darnold's got a rough resume` and we've got to see if the game was too big for him or too big for his old coaching staff (HC, OC, QBC). Since those guys got canned for their efforts, it's a fair gamble that their suckage carried over into his game. The question is, did they damage him beyond repair? Did he ever have it in the first place and was he a bad choice made by bad coaches and a bad GM? 

We don't know yet. Rhule seems to think he can fix the mess and that Darnold is the kind of guy he's looking for. This year and next will be relatively cheap if we get a decent to good QB for our efforts, and it'll be a steal if he's better than that. If he's disappointing, which honestly there is a chance of, we're back to picking high and we're on the hook for $22 million over two years, basically no worse than we were with Teddy. 

I sure wish I could read the tea leaves and see where this will end up, but I can't. Just going to have to trust the coach and the process. We have to believe that Rhule won't be taking all seven years of his contract to build a winning squad. Don't we?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Wow reading that article the only thing that came to mind is this roster has really changed from a few years ago. 

Is Shaq the only player left on the team from 2015 if JJ retires/is cut?

Edited by t96
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I think "mortgage the future" is confusing people.  The basic premise is that we had the opportunity to "draft" one of three players - in actual fact we could have had two of three - and we chose Darnold.  That choice is one that Fitts and Rhule will have to live with / answer for if it goes badly.

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1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Opportunity cost is very real. If Darnold continues to suck (honestly fairly likely based on NFL history) and Fields and/or Jones is legit (unknown, but probably pretty decent at least one of them works out based on NFL history of top 15 QB picks) then this decision is not gonna look good in the rearview unless Darnold turns out to be Clausen level bad netting us a top pick who becomes an NFL MVP (definitely the slimmest of odds discussed in this post).

Opportunity cost isn't one sided. There was an opportunity to get a QB the staff believes is as good of a prospect as the draft options as well as another top prospect. Opportunity cost pertains to that outcome as well. Rhule pretty clearly explained this.

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2 minutes ago, t96 said:

Is Shaq the only player left on the team from 2015 if JJ retires/is cut?

I don't think it's a matter of "if" with JJ. As soon as we drafted a LS in the 6th round, JJ was basically gone unless this kid forgets how to snap a football between now and TC.

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Quote

 

People lost their minds when I said the Panthers have mortgaged their future on Sam Darnold, then Gantt of Panthers.com writes...

The Panthers did a lot of things over the weekend to make Darnold's life more secure. That's good news, but it also puts the bright light back on their quarterback.

 

The spotlight being on the starting QB does not confirm any notion of mortgaging the future.

In this case simply making a draft selection is mortgaging the future. This is such an overdramatic line of reasoning.

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We didn’t just lose the picks if he doesn’t play well. We lost the opportunity to take a young QB with our top 10 picks plus whatever it costs next year to move up and grab the one we want. Even if he plays bad, I think there is too much talent for us to be picking on the top 5 next year where the QBs will be drafted. I do get the mindset of thinking Horn plus Darnold is better than risking the 8th pick on Fields who could bust also. I’m just not as sold on Darnold as our staff is...

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