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2021 QB1 Stat Predictions (BleacherReport)


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10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, Sam is a gunslinger. I don't think whether he is a starter or backup in this league that you are going to see him limit his INT'S. It is the price you pay fornthr gunslinger QB.

Very true. I think he won't be an INT machine, but he also won't be some perfectionist surgical strike guy. He'll gamble to make the big play, and I love it as long as he can make the big plays.

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1 minute ago, rayzor said:

Very true. I think he won't be an INT machine, but he also won't be some perfectionist surgical strike guy. He'll gamble to make the big play, and I love it as long as he can make the big plays.

I don't think he'll be a turnover machine. I fully expect him to improve. How much is the question...  

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5 minutes ago, rayzor said:

Very true. I think he won't be an INT machine, but he also won't be some perfectionist surgical strike guy. He'll gamble to make the big play, and I love it as long as he can make the big plays.

He isn't on the extreme end of the gunslingers, like Favre/Winston. You just have to weigh the benefits of the bone headed throws/decisions with the highlight reel lasers into tight windows. 

He was actually the 11th LEAST aggressive QB last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats. So, really he just needs to actually complete passes accurately more than anything.

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1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

He isn't on the extreme end of the gunslingers, like Favre/Winston. You just have to weigh the benefits of the bone headed throws/decisions with the highlight reel lasers into tight windows. 

He was actually the 11th LEAST aggressive QB last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats. So, really he just needs to actually complete passes accurately more than anything.

Interestingly, Darnold was the 12th most aggressive passer in 2019 and 5th most aggressive in 2018.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

I would be highly surprised if he puts up that stat line. All of those would represent career highs, by no small margin, for Sam Darnold. 

It would even be surprising for him to match Teddy's yardage from last year.

Sam may turn it around this year, but that is awfully big expectations to put on his shoulders. Putting up those numbers Year 1 outside of the Jets isn't going to be easy for him, nor would it be for anyone that was coming out of a similar situation.

Well I’m a Darnold believer. The moment we made the trade, I was excited. I think he can be a franchise QB. Not elite, but a top 8-14 QB in the league (in other words top half).

That said, if he manages to stay healthy this year then my MINIMUM expectations for him are career highs across the board. He’s in his 4th year with an immensely more talented roster around him and an extra game.

If he doesn’t post career highs then I’ll raise my hand and admit I was wrong about him. I’m a believer but most QBs that stay healthy this year should be on the verge of career numbers based on the extra game. The only ones you can’t expect that from are the true elites. Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady etc. 

Edited by TheMostInterestingMan
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1 hour ago, BrianS said:

Actually, in light of a 17 game season, I'd like to see a little more than that.  Maybe 30-33 TD's, 14-15 INT's.

For reference, Kirk Cousins went 35-13 TD/INT last year in 16 games.  Justin Herbert was 31-10.  Tannehill 33-7.  Those are "good" QB numbers.  Probably not top 10, but you can win rings with those guys.  That should be the expectation floor for Darnold.  Anything less is not the guy who will bring us a trophy.

Good post, and i agree with you, but dont forget the 8 rushing TDs. That puts him at 45 total. 

I am admittedly skeptical of Sam, but i would be thrilled with these numbers proving me wrong about the kid.

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3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He isn't on the extreme end of the gunslingers, like Favre/Winston. You just have to weigh the benefits of the bone headed throws/decisions with the highlight reel lasers into tight windows. 

He was actually the 11th LEAST aggressive QB last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats. So, really he just needs to actually complete passes accurately more than anything.

Pretty safe to say he'll be more aggressive than TB. Of course the bar is laying on the floor with that one.

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1 minute ago, rayzor said:

Pretty safe to say he'll be more aggressive than TB. Of course the bar is laying on the floor with that one.

The bar is pretty much underground there.   😂

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1 minute ago, Trainwreck said:

 

Darnold better post these numbers this season or Rhule will look really stupid to pass on Justin Fields. Those numbers I posted are from a QB that was drafted behind Darnold. F Matt Rhule.

Lawdy, you've got issues.

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4 minutes ago, Trainwreck said:

 

Darnold better post these numbers this season or Rhule will look really stupid to pass on Justin Fields. Those numbers I posted are from a QB that was drafted behind Darnold. F Matt Rhule.

Fields might not even start this season you blabbering muppet. Let it go.

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Just now, glenwo2 said:

The bar is pretty much underground there.   😂

I think his leash will be little too tight to just go out there and be aggressive zipping the ball around.

 

With the numbers he put up the last 3 seasons and the fact that he has to learn a new offense. I don't expect him to be throwing the ball 40 times. He'll maybe hit 30 a few games, but don't expect it to be early in the season.

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