Panthers “Dark Horse Playoff Contenders”

[Snake]

Remember when we had a historic defense last year. Yeah I remember that too. 

[mrcompletely11]

https://theathletic.com/3513990/2022/08/17/nfc-south-odds-projections-2022-season/

 

Carolina Panthers

• Mock’s odds to win the NFC South: 8.3%
• BetMGM’s odds to win the NFC South: +1100 (8.3%)
• Mock’s odds to make the playoffs: 23.8%
• BetMGM’s odds to make the playoffs: +275 (26.7%)

If Things Go Right:

Baker Mayfield stays healthy and plays to his ability as a former No. 1 pick, and the Panthers make the NFC playoffs. Baker is a polarizing quarterback who hasn’t lived up to the hype, but I think there is room for improvement. Mayfield struggled last year, but he did play through an injury almost the entire season. That’s been one of the issues in his young career, but if he can stay healthy, the Panthers have the pieces around him to make some noise in the NFC.

Christian McCaffrey stays healthy for the first time since 2019. McCaffrey is the most dynamic running back in the NFL when he’s at this best, and he can change the complexion of this Panthers offense.

The offensive line is a well-above-average unit. If first-round pick Ikem Ekonwu turns out solid as a rookie, this could be a very good unit. That will go a long way with protecting Mayfield and allowing him to find McCaffrey and D.J. Moore and maybe even some long throws to Robbie Anderson.

If Things Go Wrong:

The defense is absolutely abysmal following the losses of Haason Reddick and Stephon Gilmore. The Panthers defensive metrics in 2021 look fine on paper, but when you look deeper, things get a little murky as they struggled against quality offenses and really struggled at the end of the season. In fact, they allowed 27 points or more in five out of their final six games. The EPA/Play looks great, but after adjusting for opponent, my model actually rated them closer to 20th at the end of the 2021 season. Unless they can fill the void of Reddick and Gilmore, you could see some high point totals from opposing offenses.

Mayfield’s injury in 2021 was not the sole reason for his struggles, and he performs at the same rate for the Panthers offense in 2022. Mayfield of last year is surely an upgrade over Sam Darnold, but it’s not a situation where head coach Matt Rhule wants to find himself.

Panthers Super Bowl Projection:

My model gives the Carolina Panthers a 1.1% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is 22nd in the NFL.

[Rubi]

This team isn’t good enough up front on defense. Front 7 as a whole is a weak link

[Shotgun]

[TheCasillas]

17 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

https://theathletic.com/3513990/2022/08/17/nfc-south-odds-projections-2022-season/

 

Carolina Panthers

• Mock’s odds to win the NFC South: 8.3%
• BetMGM’s odds to win the NFC South: +1100 (8.3%)
• Mock’s odds to make the playoffs: 23.8%
• BetMGM’s odds to make the playoffs: +275 (26.7%)

If Things Go Right:

Baker Mayfield stays healthy and plays to his ability as a former No. 1 pick, and the Panthers make the NFC playoffs. Baker is a polarizing quarterback who hasn’t lived up to the hype, but I think there is room for improvement. Mayfield struggled last year, but he did play through an injury almost the entire season. That’s been one of the issues in his young career, but if he can stay healthy, the Panthers have the pieces around him to make some noise in the NFC.

Christian McCaffrey stays healthy for the first time since 2019. McCaffrey is the most dynamic running back in the NFL when he’s at this best, and he can change the complexion of this Panthers offense.

The offensive line is a well-above-average unit. If first-round pick Ikem Ekonwu turns out solid as a rookie, this could be a very good unit. That will go a long way with protecting Mayfield and allowing him to find McCaffrey and D.J. Moore and maybe even some long throws to Robbie Anderson.

If Things Go Wrong:

The defense is absolutely abysmal following the losses of Haason Reddick and Stephon Gilmore. The Panthers defensive metrics in 2021 look fine on paper, but when you look deeper, things get a little murky as they struggled against quality offenses and really struggled at the end of the season. In fact, they allowed 27 points or more in five out of their final six games. The EPA/Play looks great, but after adjusting for opponent, my model actually rated them closer to 20th at the end of the 2021 season. Unless they can fill the void of Reddick and Gilmore, you could see some high point totals from opposing offenses.

Mayfield’s injury in 2021 was not the sole reason for his struggles, and he performs at the same rate for the Panthers offense in 2022. Mayfield of last year is surely an upgrade over Sam Darnold, but it’s not a situation where head coach Matt Rhule wants to find himself.

Panthers Super Bowl Projection:

My model gives the Carolina Panthers a 1.1% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is 22nd in the NFL.

 

side note: does the writer do a retro on his model from last year? I always find this stuff intriguing. 

[Jon Snow]

Too many "if's" have to go our way to have a winning season much less make a playoff push. Not going to happen. 

[hepcat]

2 hours ago, Sir Big Spurr said:

Other than that 9 game stretch in the middle of the season, he thinks we have a favorable schedule lol

It's a brutal schedule. I made a whole thread about it. Talent wise the team matches up well with about half the teams on the schedule, but coaching wise, this team gets beat at the end of every game because Matt Rhule has no idea how to outwit an NFL coach on the other sideline. I haven't seen him do it except against inferior competition (of which there isn't much) and Kliff Kingsbury who shouldn't be an NFL head coach either. 

[Sgt Schultz]

Add to the "if's" listed earlier that our third-year players need to realize some of the potential we saw in year one.  There was a lot of stagnation/regression last year.  I'm hoping that was coaching, schemes, and how they were used, or just a "sophomore slump" but the fact it happened to such an extent is concerning.

The lists of "if's" is pretty long, and they don't all need to go completely our way.  In some cases they just need to move toward average.  As was mentioned on the video, improvement in turnovers on both sides of the ball would be huge. 

While he talked about Mayfield's 2021 problems, he only mentioned the fact that they were trotting him out there injured once.  The more I looked into that, the more it looked like the Browns used Ron's "just rub some dirt on it and get back out there" approach with Mayfield last year.

We'll know by the end of week four what to expect from this team.  For whatever reason we do well against Arizona, so the first four are winnable games on paper.  The roster looks better than it did last year and we have some coaches that know their rumps from a pylon, so there is hope.  But, the roster looked better last year than it did in 2020 and we saw where that got us. 

As for the schedule, it looks rough now but some teams will under-perform this year, some will over-perform, and some will have off weeks.  Schedules never turn out to be what they look like in August.

So, we'll see.  I don't think the assessment is off.

[Ornias]

[poundaway]

LFG.  Lets get more wins this year!

[Newtcase]

The Panthers have conditioned me to abandon hope and optimism early.

[Sgt Schultz]

1 hour ago, poundaway said:

LFG.  Lets get more wins this year!

The pieces are in place, but......

1 hour ago, Newtcase said:

The Panthers have conditioned me to abandon hope and optimism early.

I used to commute into work with a guy who described his relationship with his wife as "I am much happier since I gave up all hope."  That is largely my approach to the Panthers.  The good news is it has been my approach to "my" hockey team, the St. Louis Blues and they won the Stanley Cup in 2019.....after 50 years of me being a fan.

[Jay Roosevelt]

There's no such thing as "dark horse" playoff contenders in the NFC right now, IMO.

[onmyown]

11 hours ago, Move the Panthers to Raleigh said:

We get this label every other year 

Exactly this poo comes up all the time because the Panthers (and the Jets) have defined mediocrity for the last decade. 

However the franchise has been downward spiraling since Tep took over and now we can only hope to achieve mediocrity. 

The Panthers will not make the playoffs this year. I’d be shocked if they win 8 games.